French right wing back on top

The French battleground

This shock is not due to the fear that the younger Le Pen will become France’s president. This is highly unlikely. What caused it was that this would mean either Sarkozy or a socialist candidate would not be present in the second round of the election, as only the two candidates with the highest score in the first round participate. It reminded the French of April 2002 when Jean-Marie Le Pen confronted President Jacques Chirac in the second round of the presidential elections. Le Pen was heavily defeated and got only about 20% of the votes.

The last time the right wing was on top was during the previous bear market. If the party manages to take one of the top two spots, what will be their final vote total in a run-off? More than 20% for sure. Here's the author's take:

The National Front was a declining force under Jean-Marie Le Pen. Yet the present political climate in France is more favorable to the party’s ideas the way Marine Le Pen presents them. It is quite possible that she will reach a substantially higher percentage of the vote in the presidential elections than the 20% her father received in 2002.

She's doing better because of social mood for sure. If she's also a more capable politician, then I'd expect she could really turn in a surprising result, if she gets the chance.