Andy Xie: China has 20 million empty apartments

Google translation of an Andy Xie interview: Andy Xie: China now has 20 million sets of the empty house (谢国忠:中国现在有2千万套空房子)
21CBR : Recently you called "Do not buy a house, free house quickly sell". Well, you sell a no ?

  Andy Xie: I no vacant room, I only live a house. My opinion, for investment purposes, the best way to protect themselves is to sell the first hands empty houses. I have estimated that China now has 2 million sets of the empty house. Empty house did not produce income, you are holding what ? Could also add value ?

  21CBR warmer months the property market : Why is the illusion ?

  Andy Xie: Although the property market bubble began to burst, or there will be a rebound, the market adjustment are the waves. In this process, the decline of the property market trajectory very similar to the A shares continued to fall . In my opinion, this decline is at least three years, and now is the beginning of the first year.

  21CBR : media reported that eight years each sing empty property market, but are often frustrated - eight years, house prices are still in the twists and turns rose. How do you think of this argument ?

  Andy Xie: I said the property market bubble, but did not say immediately ringing off the hook. The foam does not mean that will be ringing off the hook. Even in the presence of foam, sometimes also rose.

  21CBR : You said that the Chinese economy is in a linear downward trend, which are attributed to the weak real estate ?

  Andy Xie: I think a large part is. To adjust the foam after the macroeconomic slowdown is inevitable, this is a simple truth. This time can not be immediately panacea, continue unless the foam blowing.

  21CBR : Do you think how to solve the problems of the property market it ?

  Andy Xie: I think the most important thing now is to see the problems of the real economy, the past five years had failed to resolve. If we still want better place, hope to get better or the government what is the trick, this naive. People want to protect themselves, and sell the empty house. Spanish original real estate is also very popular, and that 20% of the house is empty after the bubble burst . The future, looking back today will be the same.

  21CBR : It looks like China has cut into the channel, and how much to cut interest rates to stimulate macroeconomic ?

  Andy Xie: America's bubble burst quickly to cut interest rates, the the European bubble burst quickly to cut interest rates, which are not used. In addition, the European rate cut pressure on the euro, also appeared devaluation pressure. If China or using foreign exchange reserves to support, continue to put money in, will only increase the pressure for devaluation.

  21CBR : for you previously forecast pessimistic about the Australian economy, Australian Treasurer, Wayne Swan, (Wayne Swan) countered that Australia's economic growth is expected in the next two years will be more than any other developed country. How do you see ?

  Andy Xie: I think he's thinking is: the low price of Australian iron ore sales volume is large enough, you can withstand the risk of decline in iron ore prices. But in my opinion, the Australian economy over the past few years is very dependent on external capital, these investments are very large impact on the Australian economy, investment in mineral foam. Mineral investment is growing increasingly difficult to finance the construction of the mine. Once the funds have broken the very large economic impact on Australia. I think this is the key, not only is the problem of mineral exports.

  21CBR : how to avoid the risk of currency devaluation ?

  Andy Xie: first and foremost thing is the exchange rate liberalization, and let it float to ensure that China's foreign exchange reserves will not drag into economic decline, which is China's economic self-protection is very important thing. Or of the fight with the market, the foreign exchange reserves are smashed into China's economic future risk.

  21CBR : Do you think the effect of tax cuts now ?

  Andy Xie: I think the real effect is very small, even if the tax cuts many projects, but the amount is still small. This is why I had proposed to tax cuts must be quantitative, quantitative in order to guarantee results.

  21CBR : you are not optimistic about the overall prospects of VC / PE ?

  Andy Xie: There are several one thousand investment banking, private equity, and each year add up to thousands of items put into a project, but China's stock market listing of each year up to hundreds of projects, and how to cash it ? bubble finally to break.

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