Housing Market Decline Compresses in October

The monthly CREIS report is out again. Home prices fell an average of 0.4% in October, down from the 0.92% drop in September. 73 cities saw price declines, 27 price increases. The number of cities seeing gains of more than 1% fell from 9 cities to 5. Cities with price declines of more than 2% went up one, from 11 to 12. The number of cities with 1% price declines was 37, down 5 from September.

The report supports the story of a housing rebound in the first-tier cities, but little change in third-tier cities. (See Local Officials Want A Third Bailout as Mortgage Easing Impact Muted) Cities such as Beijing have seen a strong rebound in activity: the latest news is that Beijing's home sales increased more than 50% mom in October and sales picked up throughout the month, such that late October sales figures were on par with figures from late October 2013. (Source: 北京楼市银十翘尾 中旬出现日成交量与去年旺季持平) The number of second and third-tier cities being hit with large declines isn't slowing, but there was easing of declines in the middle of the pack which helped lower the average decline. The size of the month-on-month price declines shrank in the middle of the pack. Overall, it was a lower volatility month that could be the start of a change in direction, but there's no clear evidence of one yet outside of individual cases.

No comments:

Post a Comment