2021-03-09

Yen Trading Like Won

Correlations don't last forever, but I noticed that USDJPY was trading like USDKRW, when normally KRW is the more volatile currency. Also, if USDKRW completes its base, it should climb above the 1200 level. If USDJPY keeps trading like the won, it will approach 117, not far from the late 2016 high. Finally, if the euro starts catching up with KRW and JPY as those two move towards their initial targets, it points to the 96 area on DXY, where I expect a counter-trend rally in the dollar should end if this is a bear market.
Yuan is the other East Asian currency to watch. USDCNY turned near long-term support and at the 61.8 percent fibonacci of the move from 2014-2019.

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