I call this my "market top" chart. Admittedly I thought 2018 was the top because it bore a resemblence to the 2000 top. That did prove a very accurate trading signal though. By September 2018,
I thought it looked like 1998.
Here is the updated chart:
A perfect replay would require stocks outperforming bonds a little more from here. A blow-off top with maybe one more dip in rates, a bear trap in the bond market. Or not, there's no reason why things couldn't top out at these levels. However long it takes though, I expect bonds will start outperfroming stocks on a relative basis.
More charts. I plot the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 versus the BofA high-yield credit spread.
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