Yet Another Bearish Sign: GDP Growth Forecast Collapsing

Links to teh Atlanta Fed and New York Fed economic models are on the left side of this blog. The NY Fed makes a more traditional forecast, similar to what an economist will predict and then adjusts if the data warrants. Teh Atlanta Federal Reserve uses incoming data to make more of a real-time forecast. For awhile the Atlanta model was rather accurate, but it has been tougher amid recent economic shocks. Still, the final GDP has usually been between the Atlanta and NY models, or betweeen these two and economists.

Right now, economists are really optimstic with forecasts in the range of 6 percent growth for Q3. The NY Fed has been steady around 3.80 percent (give or take at times) during Q3. The Atlanta Fed model has rolled over with their forecast down to 1.3 percent. It's too soon to tell, but if their model proves correct and their forecast trend continues, it's possible the U.S. economy has already slipped into recession.