Disinflation Has Begun

CMLViz: Inflation in several key areas is cooling -- yes it is

In this first image, which pictures the 7-day van rate per mile, we can see that in mid-March of 2020, the rate was well below $1.50 / mile. The chart also illustrates the start of inflation that was to come.

From that $1.50 / mile price, rates rose to $3.04 by September of 2020, and with the benefit of hindsight, we know that the rates peaked at over $3.80, over a 200% increase from 2020.

Inflation in trucking rates per mile have spiked. But we do have new data that suggests that while the rates are still onerously high, they have peaked, and are clearly in a deflationary trend.

...The Shanghai to New York route is down 30% from the peak reached in September of 2021, the most of any of the four, while the route from Shanghai to Genoa is down the least, 11% year-over-year.

While prior levels, pre-COVID, are far lower, we see clear and persistent deflation, as of today.

More, including many charts, at the link.