2022-04-08

Mean Reversion via Sector Rotation

I saw this article from Real Investment Advice:Goldman Sachs Destroys An Investing Myth? It discusses mean reversion in valuations. Quick summary: P/E ratios move over time so that mean reversion doesn't return to the old mean, but as this article argues, there is still mean reversion going on.

What interests me isn't the mean reversion in valuation, but the higher order reversion in the economy. Something that hangs in the back of my mind is that the virtual economy has a potentially far higher P/E ratio because the capital itself is the main input, if any capital (as investors measure it) is even required. Capital intesive industries must reinvest in maintenance and new plant & equipment. Someone selling NFTs? What's their capital cost?

What happens to the average P/E when the economy rebalances from the virtual to the real? When people sell 100 P/E tech stocks and buy 10 P/E industrial stocks? My suspicion is there will be a much larger mean reversion if inflation remains high and commodities are in a bull market.

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