Italy First

Italy could be the first Western European nation with a right-wing majority government. Polling shows the right could have enough seats to amend the constitution.

The bloc has an advantage of almost 20 percentage points on the center-left coalition led by Enrico Letta’s Democratic Party, according to Bloomberg’s latest polling average. Such an advantage, thanks to Italy’s complex electoral system, might grant it a two-thirds majority of seats in both houses of parliament, enough to change Italy’s constitution on its own.

Turning anti-Ukraine in the final weeks along with the spiking utility bills put them over the top. Although they don't have direct support, there are other parties with anti-populist and anti-EU positions that may be allies on some issues. The thing to note isn't which side wins versus the ruling class, but that the win could be a total victory. I expect most of Europe will see the coalition governments give way to total control by right or left. Conditions and issues favor the "right" if we classify nationalism and anti-immigration as right-wing. Denmark's ostensibly left-wing party won by being anti-globalist, for example. Being anti-immigration, anti-migrant, pro-deportation and so on will be agreed by everyone as the right policy, in the same way that no serious politician argues for abolising Social Security. In most countries, this will be a massive swing to the "far-right."

From 2015: This One Chart Explains the Next 10 Years of Political Change