One Chart Every Investor Should Internalize

Prior to 2008, the low for the Fed funds rate was around 0 percent aka the CPI and the high in the prior 20 years was about 5 percent. If we put a 0 to 5 percent range on forward inflation rate of...let's be generous and say 2 percent...then the "normal" interest rate for next year is somewhere between 2 and 7 percent. The nominal interest rate of 0 percent is probably gone. The two pandemic years ruined it because the Fed will not risk a repeat. Interest rates can go down, but not much. It'll take actual deflation to get rates down to 0 percent and even then, the Fed might stop cutting around 2 percent and see what happens. There won't be any QE either.

Taleb said similar things in a recent interview.