Q1 GDP Tracking: Movin' on Up
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From BofA:
Since our update last week, *1Q GDP tracking is up two-tenths to 2.1% q/q
saar*. [Apr 19th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We left ou...
2022-09-20
One Chart Every Investor Should Internalize
Prior to 2008, the low for the Fed funds rate was around 0 percent aka the CPI and the high in the prior 20 years was about 5 percent. If we put a 0 to 5 percent range on forward inflation rate of...let's be generous and say 2 percent...then the "normal" interest rate for next year is somewhere between 2 and 7 percent. The nominal interest rate of 0 percent is probably gone. The two pandemic years ruined it because the Fed will not risk a repeat. Interest rates can go down, but not much. It'll take actual deflation to get rates down to 0 percent and even then, the Fed might stop cutting around 2 percent and see what happens. There won't be any QE either.
Taleb said similar things in a recent interview.
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