Another Sign of Slowdown: Shark Fins

the anti-corruption drive no doubt plays a role, but clearly wealthy Chinese are spending less on extravagant meals.

Shark fin trade from Hong Kong to China drops almost 90 per cent in one year

Trade in shark fins from Hong Kong to mainland China dropped by almost 90 per cent last year, a green group revealed.

Overall imports to Hong Kong fell 35 per cent compared with 2012, WWF-Hong Kong added.

The fall comes amid a crackdown by the central government on extravagance and corruption, and pressure by environmental groups to stamp out the trade.

The figures, drawn from government statistics, show a drop in re-export volumes of 17.5 per cent. This was driven by a 90 per cent drop in re-exports to mainland China from 1.2 million kilograms in 2012 to 113,973kg.

Is China Contracting or Expanding? Maybe Both If You Only Read Headlines

It seems like almost every day now, there's a headline saying "Markets Rise on XYZ" only the markets are actually flat or down, not several hours later, but when the story was being written and right as it hits the wire. In some cases, there are many journalists who do not know the material they report on, or who fail to do simple fact checking.

Tim Knight caught this one, where the reporter didn't realize that the stock spun-off a huge division.

Then there's the headlines that deliver some type of assertion. My favorite is once in awhile, they will catch a news org running two completely opposite headlines, such as "Stock Drop on Jobs Data" right near "Stock Surge on Jobs Data."

This next headline isn't so bad, since it does have truth in it:

China Exports Unexpectedly Fell in March

What is unexpected about a drop in exports in the midst of a slowdown? Apparently, the analysts are still wildly bullish.

China reported an unexpected contraction in exports in March, raising the danger of job losses as Beijing tries to overhaul its slowing economy.

Customs data Thursday showed that exports fell 6.6 percent from a year earlier, well below analysts' expectations of single-digit growth. Imports contracted by 11.3 percent, highlighting the weakness in Chinese growth.

China's leaders are trying to nurture growth based on domestic consumption instead of a worn out model reliant on investment and trade. But those plans depend on strong exports to support employment during the transition. Beijing is forecasting annual trade growth of 7.5 percent, but so far this year, official data show total exports and imports down by 1 percent.

The Internet can move information instantaneously, but it still takes days for information to be absorbed by humans. For instance, the PBOC very early said there would be no stimulus, but it took more than a week for this information to spread, all the while there were stories on hope for a serious China stimulus plan, not the small effort announced last week.

More from the export story above:

In a speech Thursday, Premier Li Keqiang said the foundation for growth is "not strong" and the economy still faces "downward pressure." But he ruled out additional short-term stimulus.

"We will not adopt stimulus for short-term and temporary economic fluctuations, but pay more attention to the healthy development of long-term efforts to achieve sustainable and healthy development," the premier said at a conference in the southern city of Sanya, according to a transcript released by the government.

Analysts said March exports probably were stronger than they appeared. They said data suffered from comparison with last year, when exporters are believed to have reported inflated values for goods as a way to evade Chinese currency controls and bring extra money into the country.

"While the export data will add to worries among policymakers and in the market about growth slowing down precariously or China losing competitiveness, we would caution against such interpretations," said RBS economist Louis Kuijs in a report.

Kuijs said that with data distortions factored out, China's exports in March might have grown by as much as 5.2 percent, on par with South Korea.

That's true, last year's numbers were inflated by fake invoicing designed to arbitrage interest rate and differentials between HK and Mainland China, leading to a big rally in the yuan in April. So why didn't all the analysts adjust their estimates? Shouldn't they all have predicted the drop in exports against last year's inflated numbers?

China's trade surplus with the 28-nation European Union, its biggest trading partner, narrowed by 40 percent from a year earlier to $3.2 billion. The surplus with the United States contracted 26 percent to $8.1 billion.

Weakness in Chinese import demand could have global repercussions, hurting economies from Southeast Asia to Australia to South Africa that supply its industries with iron ore, industrial components and other goods.

Smaller trade surpluses (or even deficits) will lead to slower reserve accumulation and even a reversal, pushing the yuan lower. Even if the trade data is better than reported, the picture is not bright, only neutral.

However, Reuters reported: Asian shares rise on Fed, unfazed by China exports. Investors are not responding to the Chinese export numbers. There is a rally underway in the markets. Whether or not the drop in exports is meaningful will come out in the coming weeks and months.

China is now stuck in the box with Schrodinger's cat. On the one hand there is the CCP's history of pulling rabbits out of hats. Possibly solid trade numbers and still good GDP growth will allow the leadership to steer the economy towards a historical anomaly: a smooth transition into a new slower rate of economic growth. On the other, anecdotal evidence from the Chinese press isn't good. The reports on the ground in the real estate market are worse than they were in 2011. Trust market fundraising was down 40% in Q1, Li Keqiang just told us again not to expect stimulus, the PBOC shut down stimulus talk, and take your pick pick of real estate ghost city stories. Whatever happens, the media will tell you after the fact. They will report negative news once prices plunge, or positive news once the rally is already underway (a small one is underway right now).

The reason for this is social mood. The most negative news comes out once the stock market has already bottomed; the most positive stories come out as the market is in the process of topping, or perhaps has even topped already. As the journalistic profession is watered down, the influence of social mood becomes even greater. Social media may exacerbate this trend by providing more data points confirming the existing mood. So we get the story above about Sears plunging because the market is selling off and here's a stock down 50%......

Some good coverage still makes it through though. Here's two conflicting opinions on China's debt problems.

Deutsche Bank sees the positive: Deutsche: Chinese Banks Set Aside Ample Bad Debt Provisions; Buy

Combining corporate bonds and trusts defaults, Deutsche identified “credit risks worth Rmb237bn for these two markets, with listed banks exposed to 37% of these risks.” According to Deutsche, Chinese banks have provided RMB 819 billion provisions and their current valuations have priced in RMB 2.8 trillion non-performing loans, more than enough to cover the RMB237 credit loss.

Surprising the Chinese press is less optimistic, calculating higher default rates and exposing how the banks aim to cut their reported NPLs.

The IMF sees the risks: IMF Urges China To Rein In Credit, Even If Growth Slows

China Home Buyers Underwater; More Ghost Cities Emerge

Some homebuyers in China are finding the bids for their homes are below their cost. In the anecdotal cases cited in the article, people moving to a new city for work are finding their old homes are underwater.

房子接近成本价仍卖不出去 三四线楼市风暴难以避免 (Homes approach cost but still hard to sell, hard to avoid the storm in third and fourth-tier cities)

Recently, a few things happening around reporters do reference. Several friends a few years ago in Yangjiang, Guangdong, Shandong Weifang, Chengdu and other cities have been the work of home or bought a house, moved to Shenzhen think because wards, so this year intends to sell the house to the field. However, they also found that, after entering this house no longer marketable, even now these houses are close to the cost price in the sale, but did not sell three or four months to go. A friend told reporters yesterday, said that from the beginning to April, buyers view room even more low bids, the latest bid to buy a house has fallen below the cost of her. "Second and third tier cities in the house too much, I want to sell that house all newly opened several neighboring properties, and new homes compared to a small local second-hand housing simply no longer marketable, but also can not afford the price to sell. "the Friends say very worried about the local prices will barely, to the time the house will be "hit" in the hand.

Another message, SW recent research report shows that from the point of view of supply and demand than residential, north of Guangzhou-Shenzhen supply and demand than the four first-tier cities is 65%, which is relatively insufficient supply state of supply and demand than the second-tier cities is 116% , three or four lines of supply and demand than 125%, the national supply and demand ratio is 119%. Only from the point of view of supply and demand ratio, the relative lack of first-tier cities are still in the state, in other words, first-tier cities housing prices and perhaps some support factors. However, local supply and demand imbalance cities such as Yingkou, Ordos, Zhangjiajie supply and demand ratio reached 476.6%, 385.4%, 246.7%, storms of such property or the city will be difficult to avoid.

I did not know that housing supply exceeded demand in Yingkou by more than 400%. By some counts, there are now as many as 12 ghost cities.

辽宁营口也变“鬼城” 18万㎡小区零入住 (Yingkou, Liaoning becomes a Ghost City; 180,000 sqm of empty suburbs)

As night fell, located Minmetals Yingkou Coastal Industrial Base Howard Johnson Hotel podium lights, however, the room lights on top of the podium rate of less than one percent. The hotel is next to the one called "Laguna Lake Ming Ju," the real estate, the construction area of ​​about 180,000 square meters of residential areas has been completed, but the occupancy rate is still zero. Three project developers of this project Yingkou Tibetan Industry Group have developed an impasse.

This is the tip of the iceberg resulting from Yingkou's real estate "Great Leap Forward." "First Financial Daily" reporters found more in the future field visits in Yingkou, Evergrande (03333.HK), Kaisa (01638.HK), South Building (000961.SZ), Kerry (00683.HK), big room prices in local sales were encountered great difficulties, some small developers is more like years.

This quote from a cab driver sums it up:

"While looking at these real estate unoccupied, but in fact many of them have sold out." One taxi driver told reporters that "people rarely come to the coast, we went to this place is definitely not 'running the meter' because there are no return customers."

One reason for the over development is said to be the developers speed, which far exceeds the local government's development capabilities. However, there's also some cheap financing involved......:

A large number of investments in the Northeast developer told reporters: "For developers, a lot of sense to get cheap land reserves, not only being able to build a house, but also improve the overall valuation of the company, and then you can get a mortgage loans, which can in some way to explain why so many developers are willing influx of Yingkou. "

"The subject is difficult in a bubble aware of their dangerous situation, because the foam itself is a irrational exuberance." Associate Professor, Department of Investment and Insurance Huang Jianzhong Shanghai Normal University Business School on the "First Financial Daily" reporters, said, "ghost town "For the Chinese economy is dangerous" powder keg ", described as" the consequence of speculation, later suffer."

Speaking of the current market, commercially focused Soho China CEO Zhang Xin said the firm is "saving ammunition" and waiting for opportunities.

I recently (early April 2014) went through the SOHO Galaxy in Beijing. It is ever so slightly more occupied than it was last year, but it is still mostly vacant.

ZAHA’S NEW BEIJING BUBBLES

Galaxy Soho may be most beautiful at night, lit dramatically and glowing Beijing’s haze. But the night-time view also reveals a reality that neither the building’s owners nor Beijing’s government would like the world to know: it is almost completely empty. Despite official assurances that the city’s office vacancy rate is only 4%, the building’s lack of tenants suggests otherwise. Six months after its opening, Galaxy Soho's building manager, in moment of candour, told a Chinese real estate journal it had a 100% vacancy rate. When I walked through the building in October – one year after it opened – it was like a ghost town. The retail courtyard had just one lonely shop selling packaged ramen noodle and Pepsi. Behind Galaxy Soho’s aluminium and glass skin, there is nothing but air. So what are those four sensual towers - the gorgeous, shimmering symbols of Beijing’s real estate boom? They’re four giant bubbles.

Zaha Hadid's Galaxy SOHO

Since the grand opening ceremony on the 27th of October 2012, the Galaxy SOHO stands almost completely empty. Its square meter prices are constantly rising, and potential investors lose their interest. There are rumours that the Chinese development company SOHO is waiting to sell the commercial space for a better price. However, according to the information from the private investor who was interested in purchasing the offices there, the current square meter prices, combined with the real estate market fall, would not make the investment pay back in less than 10 years, making the commercial/office space and the entire building totally unattractive from the investors’ point of view. Moreover, the office spaces are criticized for being inflexible and too dark.

Non-Performing Loans in the Manufacturing Sector Increase

制造业：不良贷款“高发地”

The end of 2013, the National Commercial Bank of poor rate of 1%, up 0.05 percentage points over the year. "First Financial Daily" reporters comb found that most of the bank's non-performing manufacturing sector is higher than average, and the upward trend.

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398.SH) report shows that the end of the balance of the bank's non-performing corporate loans 73.253 billion yuan, an increase of 12.276 billion yuan, NPL ratio 1.04%, while manufacturing defect rate of 1.82%.

Agricultural Bank of China (601288.SH) report said the end of 2013, the bank industry is 39.316 billion yuan of bad loans, accounting for 55% of the proportion of non-performing loans, non-performing rate of 2.86 percent.

Newspaper inspection Construction Bank Annual Report (601939.SH) 2013 was discovered, the bank non-performing loans amounted to 76.481 billion yuan, NPL ratio 1.42%, of which 38.083 billion yuan of bad loans manufacturing, NPL ratio of 2.88%. The bank made ​​it clear that new non-performing loans is still mainly concentrated in the manufacturing and wholesale and retail trade, wholesale and retail trade but the failure rate is slightly lower than the previous year.

In addition, the manufacturing sector non-performing loans in the joint-stock banks in the "high" trend.

Minsheng Bank (600016.SH) non-performing loans concentrated in manufacturing, wholesale and retail. Ping An Bank (000001.SZ) non-performing loans were concentrated in manufacturing and commerce, accounting for 63% of total non-performing loans. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.SH), said the manufacturing end of 2013 the bank loans 379.883 billion yuan, accounting for 21.50%, NPL ratio of 1.60%, Zhejiang and other key areas to increase management, asset quality is generally stable.

......The end of 2013, ICBC NPL ratio in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, the Bohai Sea were 1.09%, 1.18%, 0.96%, respectively, year on year increase, while central, western, northeast and other regions outside the poor rates were declining trend. ICBC said the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, the Bohai large increase in non-performing loans was mainly affected by weak domestic demand, the prevalence decline in orders, rising costs, falling profits in export-oriented economy and other issues of regional small and micro enterprises, enterprise funds are more nervous.

WMP Spreads Widen to New 2014 Highs

WMP spreads widened sharply in the past week as investors went in search of safety. Yields for guaranteed products and short-duration products all dropped sharply, while yields at small banks rose sharply. Also, the number of non-guaranteed products, products with more than 1 month of duration and less than 1 year, all declined in number. This shows there's still some appetite for high yield, but the vast majority of investors are piling into the safest products. The decline in yields reflects investor rejection of risky projects.

84% of Beijing Residents' Wealth is in Their House

Here’s why a China housing crash would crush the middle class—and why that matters

Most of that new middle-class wealth—at least on paper—comes from soaring home values, especially in relatively wealthier cities. For instance, 83.8% of the total assets (link in Chinese) of average Beijing residents came from their homes, compared with the national urban average of 66%.

Bad Loans in China, What's the Number?

Reuters gives the number most often cited in the press:
China says bad loans may rebound in 2014 but still under control

Chinese banks' NPL ratio rose to 1.0 percent at the end of December, its highest level in two years, the CBRC reported in February.

21st Century has their own number: 不良贷款抬头 地方银监局紧急排控 (Bad Loans Rise)

A bank executive puts the number at 2%:

"If you can borrow money, companies will be able to stay afloat, so are 'shattering', by the new-old bank can only renew loans, one can not allow corporate bankruptcy, otherwise the stock of loans are also close not to return; hand is 'Fangshuiyangyu' prior problems, these high-yield loans remained the main source of bank interest income "above Guangzhou banking executives to 21st Century Business Herald reporter said.

Notably, the CBRC "opinion" also requires banks to strictly loan quality classification standards, fully reveals credit risk. Do not Move sheet through other means to cover bad loans, borrowers prevent the use of "old debt" and "bypass" and other means to conceal the deterioration of loan quality and made in a timely manner to carry out stress tests.

"If the liquidity requirements in strict accordance with the loan debt, a majority of Chinese enterprises are not withstand the stress test." Above Guangzhou banking executives pointed out that "if you do not consider other factors such as write-offs, the current NPL ratio of commercial banks at least double, more than 2%. "

21st Century sees it above 1.5% at 12 major banks:

However, according to 21st Century Business Herald reporter statistics, the annual report has been published 12 listed banks non-performing loans at the end of 2013 was 466.979 billion, 76.318 billion more than the increase over the beginning; total loans 90 days past due is 278.97 billion, representing an increase of 47.285 billion year. That is, if you count the loans past due 90 days, 12 listed banks weighted average overdue loan ratio was 1.57%.....

Hungarian Right Dominates Election

Hungary's right-wing won a huge victory in parliamentary elections. Fidesz, with its coalition partner, won 44% of the vote and has enough seats in parliament to change the constitution without any support from the opposition parties.

On top that big victory, the only serious opposition now comes from further to the right: Jobbik. It won 20% of the vote.

Hungarian election: Viktor Orbán wins second term as Jobbik support soars

Orbán has clashed repeatedly with the EU and foreign investors over his maverick policies, but many Hungarians regard the 50-year-old former dissident against communist rule as a champion of national interests. Under his government, personal income tax and household power bills have fallen.

After 71% of the ballots were counted, election officials projected Orbán's Fidesz party would win 135 of the 199 seats in parliament – passing the two-thirds threshold needed for his party to unilaterally change the constitution.

In the past four years, Orbán's policies have included a nationalisation of private pension funds, swingeing "crisis taxes" on big business and a relief scheme for mortgage holders for which the banks, mostly foreign-owned, had to pay.

The socialist-led leftist alliance was projected to win 39 seats, with 25 going to Jobbik, whose share of the national vote on party lists rose from 15.9% four years ago to 21.25%.

Prior coverage of the rise of Hungary's right.

In June 2012 I wrote:

Viktor Orbán leads the right-wing Fidesz party. It is portrayed as extreme right-wing by the European media, with some truth, but the reality is also that Fidesz isn't the far right. There's no love between Fidesz and the more left-wing European establishment, but to the extent the European left weakens Orban, the result will not be to their liking. Instead of helping the Socialists retake power, they are increasingly likely to assist the far-right Jobbik party.

Looks like they failed on both counts. Orban is as popular as ever, and Jobbik is rising too.

Argentina Nears the Breaking Point

Social order is breaking down in Argentina and the public is trying to restore order with lynchings of alleged criminals.

The article says the lynchings have "prompted deep social unrest," but this statement has it backwards. There is deep social unrest, therefore there are lynchings. The government is losing control, it is losing authority. The lynchings are a sign that the public is taking power for itself in response to chaos.

State of emergency in Buenos Aires province overwhelmed by crime and an outbreak of lynching

The governor demanded MPs also a “quick treatment and sanction” of the bill that creates municipal police in the provincial districts.
Furthermore, the governor announced the creation of 8 agencies with a capacity to host 1,000 prisoners and 4 penitentiaries.

Queried about what drove his decision to decree the security emergency, Scioli mentioned Friday’s shooting in the provincial locality of Bernal. “There were 50 gunshots in Bernal that could have ended up in a tragedy,” he said.

But even when Scioli he did not mention it, it was obvious that among his administration’s reasons to make the announcement are the lynching cases of alleged thieves in several provinces across the country, that have prompted deep social unrest and a strong debate among politicians over the past weeks, together with statements from the Catholic Church and from magistrates.

Office Vacancy Rates Hit 58% in Wuxi; 30% in Hangzhou

Empty office buildings point to deeper malaise in China's wealthiest region

While a loan default by a developer in Zhejiang sparked fears of a collapse of the residential property sector, the situation in the office sector appears to be even worse . Residential property developers can at least slash prices to dispose of flats to recover part of their investment. Half-empty buildings, however, are not just white elephants but financial black holes.

Jones Lang LaSalle found that at the end of last year, occupancy rates for Grade A office buildings stood at 58 per cent in Wuxi, Jiangsu, and 30 per cent in the Zhejiang capital, Hangzhou . In other major delta cities, which together make up the most vibrant and developed regional economy on the mainland, occupancy rates also hovered around 30 per cent last year.

In Wuxi, the vacancy rate was expected to stand at 48 per cent in 2016, it said. By the end of that year, the stock of prime office space in the city would nearly triple from last year's amount to 565,000 square metres.

Chinese coverage: 写字楼空置率攀升凸显长三角隐忧：无锡空置率达58%

One cannot forget the role that government revenue played in all of this:

Developers splashed out billions of yuan to build office buildings, shopping malls and entertainment complexes in the new towns, believing an affluent population of 75 million would be enough to support their businesses. Unfortunately, reshuffles of municipal officials led to dramatic changes in urban development plans. New leaders would map out their own blueprints, earmarking more untapped land for new high-rise residential areas or industrial zones .

Land sales are responsible for the majority of local government revenue, which provided a big incentive to grow as fast as possible. When the real estate market tumbles, so will government revenue. Major tax hikes in the midst of a recession are unlikely. Either mass defaults or a massive increase in the central government's balance sheet is at hand.

Cry Manipulation, and Let Slip the Dogs of Currency War

I have made the case several times that the Chinese government painted itself into a corner with their currency policy, most recently in The Logic of Strategy: Yuan Devaluation and the Road to Trade War.

Very simply: The central bank (PBOC) controls the exchange rate. The PBOC managed the rise in the yuan to keep it orderly, but the market was moving in the same direction, making their job relatively easy. The Chinese government, when attacked by countries such as the U.S., was blamed for not allowing the currency to rise faster.

Now the outlook for the yuan is reversed. The currency should devalue. If the PBOC manages a decline in the renminbi, the U.S. will attack it, saying the central bank is manipulating the currency lower. If the PBOC let's the market take over, a currency crisis is very possible. Here's the kicker: the Chinese decision to let the market determine the value of the currency is itself a political decision. American politicians critical of Chinese currency policy won't be happy if the result of market determined exchange rates is a 20%-plus devaluation in the yuan.

U.S. warns China over currency depreciation

The United States warned Beijing on Monday that the recent depreciation of the Chinese currency could raise "serious concerns" if it signaled a policy shift away from allowing market-determined exchange rates.

Last month, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew welcomed a decision by China to allow its currency to vary more against the dollar in daily trading.

Monday's comments by a senior official from the Treasury Department suggested the United States was not completely sold on China's intention to reduce authorities' interventions in exchange markets.

"If the recent currency weakness signals a change in China's policy away from allowing adjustment and moving toward a market-determined exchange rate, that would raise serious concerns," the official, who asked not to be named, told journalists in a phone call.

Protectionism is coming.

Trust Fundraising Drops 40% In Q1

The silent collapse of the trust market continues with fundraising down 40% from the peak levels seen in 2013Q4. Real estate trusts are down 25% from 2013Q1.

一季度信托发行2000亿 环比下降四成

By the entire economic weakness and increased risk of default and other factors, the first quarter of 1286 a total of 68 trust funds set of trust products issued, with a total issue size of 210.45 billion yuan, a decrease of nearly forty percent. At the same time, over 20 companies listed nearly 60 billion yuan to subscribe for trust products, industry insiders believe that this will also increase its future financial risk. Trust with interest the latest data show that the first quarter of 1286 a total of 68 trust trust products issued a collection of models, with a total issue size of 210.45 billion yuan, a decrease of 13 ring than 8.13 billion yuan, a drop of 39.6%. Among them, the average duration of the trust products 1.59 years, the average annual yield of 8.84%.

In this regard, the country with a handsome gain trust allows a researcher said that this year, with the downturn in the overall economic environment, as well as breach of trust is rising, it is bound to issue new trust products have a great impact. In addition, financial institutions such as banks tightened mortgage financing barriers and other measures to improve the future, trust financing costs will also be "gone."

According to the latest release of Pu Yi wealth trust market monthly report, February 50 trust companies issued a total of 391 models a collection of trust products, issue number lower than the previous 110 models, a decline of 34.27%. From the funds in the field of view, investing in securities of investment in the field of product 51 models, a decrease of 27 models, the proportion decreased 0.13 percentage points; invest in real estate in the field of product 44 models, a decrease of 14 models, accounting for an increase of 2.78 percentage points .

In this regard, some industry insiders believe that the Trust, the Trust issued overall market trend was deserted. But different investment groups and different financing industries are not the same. Currently, the lack of expertise, low anti-risk individual investors have a great convergence, while institutional investors, especially in the hands of "not bad money," and because they like the "job" of listed companies is still afraid of risk, lying in the carrying amount of the money in the trust financial markets; while finance companies in the direction of choice, and did so lucrative industry sunrise industry based.

According to incomplete statistics, this year there are more than 20 listed companies to publish announcements trust products to purchase, subscribe for fund size of nearly 60 billion yuan. It is worth noting that, in this one, increasing the proportion of single trust. Flush data iFinD show from going so far this year, A-share listed companies of 64 Pen investment trust products, which accounted for a single refrain about trust.

"Trust that a single trust fund in accordance with the strength of the client's requirements, set up a separate trust plan. Due to this product single source of funds, income trust products is higher than the set number." Insiders said that similar products are expected to yield more than 10% is a common situation, naturally favored by listed companies. However, it also increased the risk of the investment market.

Real Estate Trust has shrunk over 25 percent in the first quarter large room

Collections Trust was established in the first quarter of this year, the scale of "shrink", specific to the pillars of business real estate investment trust, the performance is also satisfactory. Trust with interest online statistics show that as of the end of the first quarter, the first quarter of this year, real estate investment trust established 207 product, the establishment of the total size of 46.835 billion yuan, compared with the same period of this scale has fallen by more than 25% last year. Central A real estate trust business on the "Securities Daily" reporters, said real estate projects are more accident last year, regulatory and corporate leaders also hope cautious based, we also hope that more enterprises to provide financing to a large room, but the general Trust is hard to compete to resources, and discharge large housing prices, in general, small and medium housing prices indeed difficult to qualify.

Establishment of 46.835 billion yuan in the first quarter

Trust with interest online statistics show that in the first quarter of this year, the size of the real estate trust established for 46.835 billion yuan, the number of established products for the 207 models, with an average duration of 1.83 years, the average expected rate of return of 9.62%.

And last year, the size of the real estate trust established for 64 billion yuan, the number of established products for the 224, the average expected rate of return of 9.75%. In contrast, the establishment of the first quarter the size of the real estate trust collections fell 26%. In the entire collection of products tends to decrease the size of the background, the size of the real estate trust is also slowing down.

Collections of real estate trusts established in the first half of this year has shrunk significantly scale. Central A real estate trust business, told reporters that from a financing point of view, real estate projects are more accident last year, regulatory and corporate leaders also hope cautious based, we hope that more enterprises to provide financing to a large room, but this part of the list in terms of banks is very competitive, general trust is difficult to compete to resources, and discharge large housing prices, in general, small and medium housing prices we do not dare loans, coupled with intense competition and shrinking real estate market in its own reward factor, the real estate business is now conducted not good enough.

Funds focused on large housing prices

Although the amount of financing real estate trust collections passable, but specific to the real estate business, with the funds to more large room tilt, or trust company to have the resources to provide opportunities.

"This year, bank credit policy will remain tight, which in itself is a trust company the opportunity to predict the real estate market through the trust will be a greater demand for financing." Non-bank financial analysis, a broker who told reporters, "but trust How many items can be made depends on the project itself and the company needed texture. "

In fact, the Trust's real estate business has been in a state of bank credit system supplemented by the Trust's real estate companies tend to channel their money through the banking system can not get funding. Earlier media statistics show that this year issued a collection of real estate trust products, the project developer hundred only 17%, and nearly 80% of the Trust projects are located 234 line city, and the four-tier cities centralized more items.

This year the market capital supply and demand is expected to remain tilted further to the large room, from a trust point of view, if there is a relatively large and stable cooperative relations housing prices are expected to scale the real estate trusts may still have some growth, if not access to resources, small and medium housing prices, concerns about the risks tier cities housing prices could make it have to reduce real estate business.

"Three or four line items, as well as collections of real estate trust projects proportion of small and medium housing prices will not decrease was not sure, but the decline is expected to add scale is likely the one hand it should be due to this type of project than previously faced greater funding, prices loosening the pressure, trust will avoid risks; on the other hand, the risk of the outbreak of the current trust products more frequently, from an investor's point of view, weighing the risks of this kind will be more worthwhile investment projects . "these people said.

China Trust Industry Association statistics, as of the end of 2013, the scale of China's real estate trust stocks to 1.03 trillion yuan, the proportion of all the funds in trust for 10.03%, total new real estate trust in 2013 the scale of 684.8 billion yuan, accounting for Trust 11.4% annual new scale, which added a collection of trust on a scale of 304 billion yuan, the new single trust scale of 380.7 billion yuan, accounting for real estate trust between the proportion was 44.4% and 55.6%. Trust this year, raising the size of the set to fall, but the overall trend of the real estate trust scale is still more depends on a single fund.

Bank of China Warns Real Estate Will Cool In Q2

Bank of China released a report: the real estate market will cool further

Bank of China recently released "2014 second quarter economic financial outlook report "that in the second quarter of this year, the real estate market will cool further.

Bank of China Institute of International Finance, a senior analyst Zhou Jingtong think, in the second quarter, fiscal reform will accelerate the pace, while the real estate market or further cooling, the local government's objective function, behavior and willingness to invest is changing; overcapacity, rising costs and benefits decline etc., constitute a constraint on economic recovery in the short term.

Due to the tight real estate credit policy continued fermentation of the second quarter, the real estate market will cool further.

This year from January to February, the real estate investment growth has been a slight decline. Real estate investment totaled 795.6 billion yuan, down 3.5 percentage points over the same period last year. In addition, real estate (information, buy, forum) turnover also fell rapidly, housing a total sales area of 100 million square meters, an increase of 49.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Prices in some cities began dropping, and real estate development funding is also slowing.

BOC report reminded, for some time, the potential risks facing the economic development in three areas: U.S. quantitative easing QE withdrawal, local debt issues and the shadow banking.

Home Price Cuts Are Prologue to Collapse

An opinion piece arguing that the drop in prices may be the prologue to a housing market collapse, but that the prologue may be longer than expected.

中国房价正在迎接非典型崩盘

There are some hot real estate market in recent news, the legendary property market crash seems to be approaching, and therefore may wish to return to the topic, do some discussion on the property market trends.

Start a macro perspective to do some analysis. As the U.S. economy gradually recovers, the job market improved significantly, the Fed announced to cut the amount of quantitative easing from the beginning of April, the amount of the bond purchase cut from $ 65 billion to $ 55 billion a month, and hinted in 2015 will fade quantitative easing.

In absolute terms, this policy fine-tuning on the dollar amount of the money supply have limited impact, but significant changes in psychological expectations, international capital flows are expected to change, which relied on large capital inflows from the Chinese room to stimulate the real estate bubble has important inhibitory effect.

Atypical collapse of housing prices in China are welcome

Since mid-January, the RMB has depreciated more than 2%, although for different reasons devaluation explanation, it was attributed to changes in the Fed's monetary policy, also suggested that the central bank intends to control the results, but objectively devaluation will increase exchange rate risk in the international market for financing the developer, while the impact of asset prices. With the dollar rate hike pace approaching, large developers through the issuance of U.S. dollar bond financing practices, will increase the difficulty of the issue and upgrade costs.

From the current situation, in the past few years, local government debt, debt and real estate industry platform-based private sector debt has been high, since 2008, new credit of up to $ 14 trillion, most of the loans are used for basic construction facilities in fixed assets, such as real estate and factories, Chinese private sector loans to GDP ratio of 115 percent from 2007 to 2012 jumped 193% debt deleveraging imperative, which real estate companies exert tremendous pressure on cash flow .


On the surface, China's central bank is the basic idea moderately tight monetary policy, but in fact opportunistic thinking has been dominated by the Chinese central bank's monetary policy, under market pressure, such as late June 2013, the so-called money shortage crisis, and 2014 liquidity tensions before the Spring Festival, the central bank will often use a variety of policy instruments to inject liquidity into the market, but after all, China's total broad money M2 has more than 110 trillion, M2 to GDP ratio of over 200%, the economy has been in the body Under inflationary pressures, so the management of liquidity has been a sword of Damocles central bank, expect the central bank's loose monetary policy to stimulate or maintain economic bubble of hope will come to nothing.

Morgan Stanley recently published a research report that China's large debt coming due, the borrower money is tight, slow economic growth, monetary policy tightening, market interest rates rise, speculative and Ponzi credit credit sway. All of these are harbingers, credit is drying up, China's "Minsky moment" has been getting closer, GDP growth will fall to 5 percent or.

As the market cast [ Introduction News ] machine of Ponzi credit and increase credit, credit deterioration of the environment, the financial system for hedging consider tightening credit, provided the economy when the loan has been insufficient to support the liquidity needs, the there will be "Minsky moment." "Minsky moment" is a turning point between boom and bust. This clearly constitutes a systemic risk, and the real estate industry is bearing the brunt of the recent events has been the depth of the impact of several typical follow-up financing capacity of the real estate industry.

Shanghai Super issue of corporate bonds because they can not pay interest on schedule, the earthquake has triggered a bond market, the market in the trust, the trust issue around 2011 products, many of which are facing can not repay the scenes, and more mines are detonated . These are signs that traditional banking and financial channels since the developers gradually closed the door to credit, the shadow banking financing channels are gradually narrowing.

Occurred in Ningbo, Zhejiang Jiang Xingrun real estate development company collapse, causing widespread concern in the industry. According to media reports publicly available information, Ningbo Xing Yun liabilities more than 3.5 billion yuan, of which bank loans is almost 24 million in construction payables 4 billion in private debt folk are at least 7 billion respectively. Ningbo Xing Yun enjoy good political and business resources at the local, but due to slow-moving items, slow Days sales outstanding, tremendous financial pressure, after the bank financing channels closed, had to resort to civil usury, was eventually overwhelmed by the huge costs of private financing.

Official statistics show that sales are stalling, 1-2 February national real estate real estate sales of 709 billion yuan, down 3.7% over the same period last year. In summary, both the macro side or meso level, liquidity is low tide, the financing channel is gradually shrink, and then compare the various recent news of falling house prices, can deepen the understanding of the real estate trends. While mobility is constantly receding tide, while the increasingly sluggish sales, which is tens of thousands of real estate companies viability of a containment. Developers need this adventure game, the first force to boil the winter market too.

In this context, only superficially like the price is expected to strengthen the prices down, in order to stimulate sales, the developer must have slashed prices of courage, therefore, after the Spring Festival, a real estate north of the city of Hangzhou, a shot on the announced price cuts 4,000 per square meter, This triggered a wave of price trend is still spreading, Changzhou, Nanjing, Guangzhou and other places have successively follow up real estate prices.

However, with respect to the pattern of the entire housing market, the price of these sales of real estate, it seems not enough to constitute a landmark event, these events are storm in a teacup or a harbinger of the collapse of the property market?


From a national perspective and falling house prices is not new, such as the typical Ordos and Wenzhou cities, housing prices have been cut, but overall, from the collapse of real estate people think there is a great distance. People on real estate trends quite alarmed, and yet not quite sure a lot of people are still waiting for a typical event, you can wait for a clear signal transfer market collapse of typical events.

This kind of understanding of the real estate crash scene stereotyped impression of public communication is formed, for example, the Southeast Asian financial crisis era cliff prices downward, when the U.S. subprime crisis wave of selling real estate, but these may not be the typical scenario of crisis will certainly reproduce in China, As I previously analyzed, because the local government intervention, due to the different ownership structure, as the market characteristics of different regions, market and non-market logic logic, etc. are simultaneously at work.

Even in the face of a clear market down cycle, different types of developers will show different response mode, and in the consequence of the property, there will be a variety of repeated various hardcore, prosperity and decay surfaces alternately appear more precise, even if the property market crash in progress, but this did not collapse the moment the national unity, there will not be simple and clear identification, information chaos and cacophonous will continue to continue.

By the end of March, a real estate Chengdu East Third Ring announced price cuts, leading to the site of the original owners of trouble, sales offices smashed, triggering the special police to the scene to maintain order. Chengdu Pokfield users commented that began when the SWAT shields to defend the sales office, house prices would collapse began.

Yes, there is too much evidence that the sharp decline in prices should, there are too many signs that the collapse of housing prices started, but may need to wait very long between the prologue and drama, and drama is not even looking forward to the kind of mass upsurge. Faced with an atypical industry, we are greeted is a atypical collapse.

"Asia's Tallest Apartment Building" in Shenzhen Sees Prices Drop 20,000 Yuan per SQM

These blowouts at the high end are headline grabbing due to the large price drops, but they aren't going to undo the real estate market.

深圳“楼王”暴跌2万/平 价格看齐十年二手房

Core Tip: known as "Asia's tallest apartment ", Shenzhen Futian" House King "Tokai International Apartment recently launched ten sets of special rooms, the price dropped to 70,000 from 49,000 each original highest level, a whole has fallen by 20,000.

21st Century Network real estate loans by banks to tighten influence, three or four months, Shenzhen, new home prices returning to loose. Today, the reporter learned from the agency, known as "Asia's tallest apartment", Shenzhen Futian "House King" Tokai International Apartments also launched more than 10 sets of special rooms, prices from 70,000 per square highest fell original 49000, whole fallen by 2 million and the adjusted average, has been with the neighboring 10-year-old mansion listing price line. Real estate speculators believe that commercial-type apartment price volatility higher than the average mansion, the current outlook for the property market policies difficult to understand, or become a price dive "leader."

"House King" leading down

"Donghai International Apartment new release 10 sets of special units (47,000 per square meter price after discount)," reporters yesterday received a Shenzhen real estate agency customers forwarded message, the message detailing ten sets of special rooms for the room number and the total price , each area are 250 levels. "The price decline than in 2013 Tokai International opened a lot of real estate known as 70000 was the price, some high floor, sea southeast to the unit, once asking price 100,000 per square meter." Real estate speculators who told reporters.

This morning, the reporter's identity in order to reach the East China Sea Kanlou International Apartments, an intermediary, launched ten sets of special rooms remaining 5F, 6F sets, which 6F total price of 12.5689 million yuan, equivalent price of about 50,400 / square, If it is a one-time payment, you can play 95 fold, discounted price of about 47000 / level. "Our sea view room, or the current floor, you can stay after the payment." An intermediary with reporters.

Subsequently, the agency also deals with the reporter visited the 187-208 square meter penthouse with decoration, the price of 58,000 per square meter, "such as price, than the surrounding 香榭里花园 years old duplex should be cheaper, you might consider the hunters. "intermediary repeatedly emphasized.

Shennan Road East International Apartment is located on the north side, adjacent to the China Merchants BankBuilding, is a large complex projects supporting East International Center of the total high-end apartments, the complex area of ​​500,000 square meters, in addition to the international high-end apartments, also includes two have been completed and occupied Grade A office space, one has opened five star Langham Hotel.

The East China Sea is international reputation in Shenzhen, which is located in the top 80 from the floor in the "House King", which registered a gross floor area of ​​870.99 square meters, the record price of 290,000 / flat, total reach 253 million in 2013 when just opened , a price of fame. But the opening six months, but prices gradually lower, with the launch of the 10 sets of special units to see, folding front price of about 60,000 yuan per square, has shown a stepwise decline.

Low profit difficult to attract real estate speculators

The reporter then visited the East China Sea near the high end international apartment real estate, such as 香榭里花园, East eighteen living, etc., found in the East China Sea after the price is already quite close to the international unit apartment with them, such as the 2004 occupation of the Champs II 178 meters large flat, the current Asking price at 45000-50000; age eighteen living shorter Tokai large flat unit prices are around 45,000. In addition, a distance of about a few kilometers outside the old mansion, Futian District, Le Parc, 12-year-old is currently a large area of ​​the unit, the average price is also between 45,000 -50,000.

But in the real estate speculators view, the supply of high-end apartments in Shenzhen Futian, Nanshan great, perhaps the price downside.

There are real estate speculators introduction, in 2011, Shekou Lanxi Valley has launched high-end condominium units, probably the opening price at around 40,000 yuan, but then the real estate regulation, these high-end apartments have a 25% decline in value, fell 30,000 / square meters price volatility than Lanxigu residential building is much larger. "Over the last two years, because they do not purchase are not limited to credit, high-end business apartments once received by the market, but the supply is also magnified many times, only the East China Sea International has nearly 1,000 suites supply, the city's deep real estate industry handover next year, supply greater amount, as well as Shenzhen Nanshan Bay 1, etc., Room 150,200 square easily, because life is short, have a 50% down payment , the maximum loan period of 10 years. doing, rental yield is very low. "speculation passenger Chen lady told reporters.

She gave reporters calculations, play specials 5F units, 12.56 million yuan, down to 6.288 million, for the month was 73,600 (ten years), the leasing agency can receive 20,000 yuan per month rent, annual rate of return was less than 2%, and Fukuda's occupancy rate is lower than the high-end apartments in Shekou, Nanshan Area, for her, even though limited to purchase are not limited to credit, still less attractive.

However, some real estate speculators are on the high-end business life raised doubts apartment land, why is not limited to these options are not limited to real estate loans, mainly in the case of "commercial land", the period of only 50 years, while developers get in the East China Sea International In the 1990s, the land remaining useful life of 30 years, actually, "current" Property Law "for the renewal of commercial properties maturity yet clearly defined, so it is risky."

Who Will Buy Bank of China's Toxic Assets? Bank of China

Update: I missed this WSJ article last month. The main point is the same, but the WSJ goes into more detail, and its not Google Translated from Chinese.

Bank of China Is Selling Bad Loans to Investment-Bank Unit

Bank of China Ltd., one of the country's big four state-owned banks, has started a new strategy of unloading soured loans to its investment-banking unit, which then would try to restructure the debt with the hope of recovering more than it paid for the loans, according to bank officials.

With the investment-banking unit expected to pay more than an outside investor, the bank would be able to record lower loan losses. Meanwhile, the problem loan would no longer stay on the bank's balance sheet after the sale under Chinese accounting rules. By comparison, such intracompany transactions usually aren't treated as sales under Western accounting standards.

Originally Posted April 2: Just a snip out of this article. Banks in China often sold non-performing loans to Cinda Asset Management (1359.HK), private equity and other players in the bad debt space. Bank of China thinks it can earn more money by restructuring the debts themselves in their investment banking division, rather than selling them off. The chief benefit though, may be that the subsidiary pays a higher price for the debt, reducing the reported loan losses.

谁在收购中国银行业“有毒资产”？

Chinese banks dispose of such "toxic assets" which are usually sold to outside investors in the past, these outside investors is China's large state-owned major asset management companies. In recent years, including China Cinda Asset Management Corporation, including asset management company to achieve such a huge profit.

The company's basic operations logic is to acquire a large discount from the bank in the hands of non-performing loans, and to recover more than the cost of acquisition funds. This business model by many people optimistic, with the increase in lending banks, asset management companies in the business of disposing of bad loans will increase, as the letter of the future profitability of these companies is very high.

But a growing number of subjects involved in this business started since last year, Zhejiang, Jiangsu provincial asset management companies have been established, mainly because the local banking sector non-performing loans increased rapidly in recent years, while taking into account the provincial asset management integration have the advantage of local resources and other areas, may be able to improve the efficiency of the stock of non-performing loans disposal.

In addition, local property trading platform, PE, trust companies and other organizations have been involved in this field with the past, the transfer of assets to the bad bank will be several large state-owned asset management company, to as low as 1-2 fold compared to the cheap sale, increased and diversified body of market competition will increase the sale price of non-performing assets.

In addition, even subsidiaries of commercial banks are involved in this industry.

Bank of China began to sell its investment banking subsidiary of non-performing loans, after this subsidiary will restructure these loans, with a view to recovering the loan is higher than its acquisition price of capital. Since the purchase price under the investment bank subsidiary of the non-performing loans is expected to be higher than outside investors, the Bank of China can be included relatively few loan losses.

China's Real Estate Cheerleader: Real Estate Prices Will Not Fall in 2014; If They Fall The Chinese Economy Will Collapse

Ren Zhiqiang is still cheery about real estate prices, but he admits that the economy will collapse if real estate prices drop.

任志强：2014年房价降不了 一旦下跌中国经济要崩溃

Real estate issues I have also talked to a bunch of people say hunters then, I will not say the real estate collapse, at least not crash now. I am still in this attitude, real estate problems can be more than just a problem of housing prices, there are too many disputes, to collapse, at the time, and now I do not fancy on him.

Thus we see, the Internet say, have a house and a car to get married, have been in everyone's understanding inside the house and the car says a heavyweight presence, but now we look back, the car began many years ago as early slow slowly into everyone's life, except the house, is still pressure in our heads a mountain, so many people can not match.

Why?

The car can cut prices, falling house how not?

Because a certain extent, the use of the house as the House of Love in many people's eyes Boo Lai Shi nervous as a necessity, even though a lot of land and China exist, but not every place can build a house to sell, because we have to buy a house see lots.

So, on demand, real estate but well done.

Then, the preservation of the house, bought his own to live, not live on rent for a period of 70 years, is indeed a superior performance shares under the current investment environment in this harsh environment, but real estate than other Industrial safety, so There has been no shortage of capital inflows, even a hedge against inflation in accordance with, this is nothing more really than the stock, so the more harsh environment, real estate, but is often more contrarian.

Especially in the past, real estate generated a lot of interest, implicated in a lot of manpower and material resources, the government did not dare let the real estate collapse, the government's acquiescence, no one can make the real estate crash.

Then yes, what is the attitude of the government to treat real estate? Maintenance of stability!

If you really are going to crash, I think for a long time, only one possibility is flattery, because real estate is the bane of funding strand breaks, but the government for the purpose of maintaining stability, shot, real estate capital chain is no legend The so fragile, not to crazy, began a more gentle transition, so prices will not occur in the future collapse.

Because if so, the Chinese economy to collapse

If you do not flattery, prices will not collapse, but are likely to fall to rise, it will enter a period of shock.

Why do prices collapse? Because the government is not flattery, is the existence of a tacit understanding between the two, but because of the danger of the collapse of the real estate exists and help the real estate bubble squeeze, is what we call a series of government actions in real estate, I Put another way, the real estate kidnapping the government, the government will not let him crash, but also with a little means to give yourself unbundling, the plane landed not directly fall, but slowly slowly, but I said, China's real estate market is still .

Prices before the problem can not be generalized, but should think so, overheating is a good drive overall, everyone JiQuanShengTian, ​​100 sell 100, but it sold out 100? Dare to sell a 99 dollar have become a ...

So is this the case of real estate, rather than saying, two days, a crash, and everyone will be able to exchange good paper to a suite of central Beijing, when so many people want to change the price or to lift up.

Therefore, the rational view is that some high real estate still high, but every one of those who would suppress it, this is the price strange phenomenon.

So, in fact, there is a very fundamental question, livable urban Chinese living and working on a few, urbanization behind, making you actually buy a house in question is chosen relatively small, so the problem is not economic The reason one aspect alone.

A lot of money flowing into the limited local, naturally pushed up prices. So after the case should be that of the low-end market has been affected more serious, as the high-end market, I have not done market research, to look at supply and demand, and then the mid-market should be expanded. Of course, this is my little one-sided words, I do not have detailed information, subjective judgment is relatively large, we tentatively listen enough.

Five Officials Fall in Hubei; Real Estate Developer Flees

There is nothing atypical about this story. Land sales make up the majority of most local governments' revenue and there was lots of money to be made in the real estate bubble. Corruption is just another accelerant that could help turn the slowdown in real estate into a crash.

湖北两天内5高官落马 宜昌开发商纷纷跑路

Hubei official since the "Tiger" Guo Youming sacked aftershocks. In just two days just past, there are five officials have "trouble."

Just yesterday, deputy director of the NPC Standing Committee Wang Hongjiang Yichang City, Hubei Daily Yun Zhang Qin, general manager of Media Group, Wuhan Economic and Information Technology Commission of Yuxin Guo three "Hall official" investigation traced after another. Due to the presence of which Wang Hongjiang intersection with the former vice governor of Hubei Province, Guo Youming more attention.

"First Financial Daily" reporters comb found Woan Chuanan high incidence of corruption has become a major feature of crime. Destroyed a "tiger" with a bunch of "flies" in the case, along with the continued strengthening of anti-corruption efforts after eighteen, has shown increasing trend.

"Central inspection team is mainly for provincial or ministerial level visits, clues are mainly transferred to the Central Discipline Inspection Commission and Organization Department, but the relevant departments in the process of investigating the provincial and ministerial level officials will inevitably involve some departmental cadres, because power is on a chain. "There are anti researchers told reporters.

Yichang business and political earthquake

Hubei Provincial Commission for Discipline Inspection and Supervision Department website yesterday news shows, Wang Hongjiang because of alleged serious violation, the organization undergoing investigation. This is the second Guo Youming, Zheng Xinghua, third Yichang senior officials sacked.

A local political insider "First Financial Daily" reporters, and Guo Youming, Zheng Xinghua, like Wang Hongjiang also checked with land issues.

Reporters found that access to their resume this year, 60-year-old Wang Hongjiang was just two years ago in January was transferred to the National People's Congress of Yichang. In the previous six years and more time, Wang Hongjiang has served as deputy mayor of Yichang City, is in charge of urban and rural areas of planning, urban construction, urban management, land resources, public security and judicial.

Yichang local real estate sector over insider told reporters, Yichang, a major real estate company for its two land transport interests of 150 million yuan to Guo Youming, whose boss was isolated investigation.

Coincidentally, the current status of the real estate industry is in Yichang, several local developers due to similar reasons above was taken away for investigation, small developers have fled abroad bosses are sheltered, medium-sized developers ushered in the spring of development.

However, a local medium-sized developers Yichang has complained to reporters, said, Recently, major banks in order not to be involved Guo Youming Woan, afraid to lend to real estate companies.

Yichang local financial industry insider said, Yichang Wine Group, a large security company involved Guo Youming Woan also due to the depth of the parent involvement. The security company with registered capital of up to 600 million yuan, is the main financing channels to local SMEs, the banks are not lending their money received only directly affect the normal financing local SMEs.

Reporters from several independent sources informed that as of March, Guo Youming amount involved hundreds of millions, and because justice has not been handed over, this data is likely to remain incomplete for.

Combating the spread of depth

Wang Hongjiang, Zhang Qin Yun, Yu Xinguo, deputy director of the Hubei Provincial Bureau of Commerce Liping An Huanggang City, Hubei Province, deputy director of SASAC Lu Lijun ...... just two days, Hubei officialdom that five senior officials have been arrested for serious violation, receiving organization investigation or removal.

Prior to March 26 - 27, the Hubei Provincial Commission for Discipline Inspection announced a series of Huanggang City, Deputy Secretary of Human Resources and Social Security Bureau fee Tianbao, Jingmen City Committee Chairman Paul duodao District Chu group under investigation for alleged serious violation of the news. In February, Xianning, Hubei SASAC Deputy Director Wang Haiquan, deputy director of Hubei Provincial Science and Technology Department, who is also a series 张震龙 checked.

Today, the Hubei provincial leadership has called for the strengthening of supervision and inspection at all levels, the introduction of new regulations to ensure that the local party and government discipline decided to implement in place. Hubei Provincial Commission for Discipline Inspection 2014 inspections have been opened, it will be on 8 Jingzhou City, Ezhou, Yichang, Wuhan, Huangshi, Xiangyang, Jingmen, Xiaogan, etc. to carry out inspections.

Supreme Procuratorate carried out analysis that taking down suspects collusion, both inside and outside the joint, joint planning, etc. crime, criminal groups based on the 2013 national characteristics significantly prosecutors for investigation of corruption cases.

Reporters combed found that the deputy provincial level (or above) officials sacked, often accompanied by the further development of the chain of corruption, "the second wave of corruption," the bureau level, county level corrupt officials hit.

Hubei, for example, after Guo Youming, former vice chairman of CPPCC Hubei Province Chen Baihuai and other provincial officials sacked deputy, then there are more officials traced the above investigation. Collusion although there evidence of the relationship between them, but which many people's biographical evident intersection.

Since 2012 after the Sichuan Provincial Party Secretary Li, former deputy city, Sichuan province, former chairman of the CPPCC Li Chongxi, Man United, former chairman Guo Yongxiang Sichuan provincial and ministerial level officials have been checked shake Sichuan political and business circles, there have been a large number of officials of the incident, including was recently named by the mayor of Suining He surveyed Hua Zhang, Li was seen as the city of love will.

Earlier, the chairman of the CPPCC Wuhou Wu Yong, deputy mayor of Zouping Nanchong, Sichuan Product Quality Supervision and Inspection and testing centers have been sacked former president LEE Wing whole.

The same situation also staged Jiangxi and Anhui provinces.


December 2013, Jiangxi People's Congress deputy 任陈安 congregation was declared after investigation, anti-corruption efforts continue to strengthen political Jiangxi Province. Within the next three months, Yao Mugen, vice governor of Jiangxi Province, Pingxiang City Committee Chairman Yan Dewen, Party Secretary Zhang Xuemin Pingxiang, Jiangxi Huichang county clerk 傅春荣 and many others have been sacked.

June 2013, former vice governor of Anhui Province, Ni Fake alleged serious violation being investigated, the number of leading cadres have checked Anhui, Wuhu Agriculture Commission, including Deputy Director Hu Dongming, Lu'an Working Committee 魏力生 et al.

"Involves the Office of the provincial and ministerial level officials, officials at how to deal with the case, according to the extent of its relationship with the provincial and ministerial level officials may be dark if the extent of the relationship, then the central direct control; If the extent of the relationship between light, or involved question does not constitute a major problem, then generally in accordance with the administrative level of the investigation by the local Commission for Discipline Inspection to officials investigating two are different, can not be generalized. "these anti-corruption research, told reporters.

Chinese Cities Consider Loosening Property Restrictions; Will It Work?

多城市酝酿和讨论松绑限购可能性 短期内对楼市影响大

Following the purchase of Wenzhou outgoing reported deregulation program, a number of cities, Hangzhou, Changsha, also began brewing and discuss the possibility of the purchase of deregulation.

Implementation of the real estate market four years of purchase of the policy, to loosen in 2014.

Following the purchase of Wenzhou outgoing reported deregulation program, zhengbao reporter was informed that a number of cities of Changsha, Hangzhou is also brewing, and discuss the possibility of the purchase of deregulation.

The question is will it work? Wenzhon tried this in August: Wenzhou loosens property restrictions

Wenzhou in Zhejiang province has quietly loosened purchase restrictions in the housing market by permitting both local residents and non-local households to buy second homes, sources said.

In an internal document acquired by a source who asked to remain unnamed the Wenzhou home regulator decided to slacken its former grip on home purchases.

Wenzhou was one of the nation's 46 cities that imposed restrictions on buying homes on the back of central government guidance issued in 2011. The municipal government published a regulation in March 2011 stipulating that all households could buy just one apartment subsequently, no matter whether they had homes or not before.

The latest headline on Wenzhou real estate: 温州房价连跌31个月消息称松绑限购方案已上报

Wenzhou home prices fell for 31 straight months, including after they eased restrictions, and now Wenzhou has submitted another plan to ease home purchase restrictions......

Handan Farm Cooperative Goes Bust; 100,000 Rural Households Invested Over ￥140 million; Boss Has Fled

There will no doubt be English coverage later today or tomorrow. Here's the Google Translation of the Chinese story. Same themes popping up in this story, but mixed to create different results. For example, if you're following the trust default you know coal mines are in deep financial trouble. One of the cooperative's schemes was to haul coal from Inner Mongolia and then return with vegetables grown by Handan farmers. There also may have been a Ponzi aspect, as the cooperative was paying dividends double that of banks, and its investments failed quickly.

邯郸伟光合作社敛10万农户上亿元 突然倒闭

Handan City, Hebei Province, villagers Fengyuan Cheng Guang County held their "capital stock certificate", in black and white above the words "maturity dividend" 660 yuan, the maturity date of September 3, 2013. Until now, however, he not only did not get this interest in a deposit of 10,000 yuan before the principal had not been able to return, leaving the hands of this marked "widely County Weiguang vegetable cooperatives" Seal 'capital stock certificate ", but the above legal" high head loss "has disappeared, disappeared. In Handan City, the same holding as Fengyuan Cheng Weiguang cooperatives' capital stock certificate "few farmers, they are now faced with the same dilemma, investment funds into nowhere to repay with interest. According to the Morning News reporter Diao Cha throughout Handan City, there are nearly 10 million households joined the Weiguang cooperatives, has invested over 140 million yuan capital stock. With Weiguang boss running, how to recover the money become a problem.

Shockingly like Weiguang this farmer cooperatives in Handan has been everywhere, as many as one thousand names of tricks, but much the same way: the establishment of co-operatives to high rebates as bait, a large number of farmers to absorb funds' shares. "

Indeed Morning News reporters investigation learned that the vast majority of cooperatives are dressed in "Farmer Cooperatives" legitimate coat, and the exercise of real illegal fund-raising, the steady stream of hard-earned money to squeeze the farmers. Once empty, the farmers will lose everything.

Higher interest rates tempted farmers join a company

Speaking Weiguang, more than three years to fame in Handan City, especially in rural areas is almost known to everybody. From the end of 2010, Weiguang worked in Handan City, more than a dozen counties and the city, offering a "Weiguang vegetable cooperatives."

Weiguang issued on promotional materials, the Home was printed and the National Order of the President of the State Council, namely the "People's Republic of China Farmer Cooperatives Law" and "Farmer Cooperatives Registration Regulations." Weiguang stressed that it is based on these two regulations, registration of industrial and commercial administration departments approved the establishment.

In Weiguang outreach, the establishment of vegetable cooperatives are a perfect complement to the entire Weiguang Group's development. High Yingwei boss started to operate coal transportation, there's a fleet. "Inner Mongolia's coal sales pulled Handan, Handan then returned the vehicle pulled Inner Mongolia vegetable sales." Weiguang vegetable planting cooperatives will therefore result.

But Weiguang not join a cooperative to attract farmers relied on the blueprint, the most important is that it opened bank interest rates much higher than the so-called "bonus." Reporters got a 2011 "Weiguang cooperatives join a share cash dividend calculation table" shows that as long as farmers voluntarily join a company with funds, you can schedule dividends, capital stock cooperative financial institutions interest rates than deposit rates twice . Under such a high bonus temptation farmers have "join a company," Branch Weiguang Handan cooperatives also open up a home. According Weiguang brochure called, to 2012 just over a year's time, join a number of cooperatives Weiguang reached 80,000 people, a total of 27 branch. To 2013, join a number already exceeded 100,000.

Grassroots agents into every village

Morning News reporters Diao Chale and Jie Dao, from Weiguang headquarters to the bottom of each "join a" farmer, the middle is "Head Office - Branch - agent point" three-tier system, a level transmission, farmers' funds as they like blood from under and the convergence to Weiguang headquarters.

Weiguang headquartered in Handan City School District, the 28th Army Street revival, under which each county has in a cooperative branch, branch below the point that the agency, the agency points are distributed to every village.

In Weiguang cooperatives throughout the funding process, the most basic level, but also plays the most important role is to agency staff. Almost every village has an agency staff, who are responsible for dealing directly with farmers, farmers absorb capital shares by way of becoming members. In general, the identity of agents who are relatively specific, they either have more prestige in the village villagers either have experience in the credit union before work, more trusted by the villagers.

Weiguang method is very simple, with a high commission way to make these agency staff members for the Weiguang development. Development agency staff members available to the commission, the commission in accordance with the amount of capital stock and join a deadline to count to 10,000 yuan as the base, join a company for a period of one year, to mention became twenty ten thousandths; join a company for a period of six months, to mention become eight ten thousandths. Agency staff to absorb the various village funds to farmers branch confluence, and then handed over to the headquarters of the branch, and thus, from the most basic level of funds absorbed by the hands of farmers, three transmission, eventually converge to the hands Weiguang headquarters.

A message after the boss is gone

Started more than a year after the establishment of cooperatives, running fairly normal, "shares" of farmers basically got back in time to the "bonus" to the second half of 2013 the situation began to change. Many agency staff found Weiguang no longer be paid on time, "bonus", and then the situation is getting worse, unable to pay the money directly. In the end, the boss of high head loss are gone! "Dear agent and savers, loans I'm trying to run, will you be patient and be assured that the money down to who the money is not owed, bringing to you say sorry!" In agency staff Zhang Tai Shan's phone, keep the high head loss of such a message, the time is January 7, 2014, which is the high head loss last contact with him. Zhang Tai Shan told reporters that he was member of the Nam Theun Village agents help Weiguang join a company raised 3.8 million of funds, the money is in the village more than 100 farmers hard-earned money, but from the start of last year in July and August Weiguang default interest. He has been looking for a high head loss, but the other has not answered the phone, people do not show up, all the rumors that he had run away, and now the money did not get back to the principal and interest.

[Weiguang operational status]

Even the door seal tank have been posted

High Yingwei disappear, then how Weiguang vegetable plantations and coal field operating conditions? Morning News reporters Sui Houzou and Fang Liao Weiguang located in Guangping County of cooperatives and coal yard.

Kwong Yuen Wai Kwong Hua Yingcun County's new vegetable planting base, where three years ago had been a grand ceremony, so has changed the facade. Mr. Wang told reporters at work here, where the base 1000 acres of greenhouses have been contracted, he and another farmer in September last year, no longer belongs Weiguang. He told reporters that the market is good, the annual income per acre for growing vegetables can have the million or so, if the species is more quarters. Weiguang no longer operating mainly management too confusing, and employing poor, no professional staff planting techniques.

Guangping County Weiguang cooperatives insiders told reporters, in fact, Weiguang from land to build the greenhouses, growing vegetables really less than a year, received only a quarter of the land spend, build greenhouses and other costs more than more than 3000 yuan, basically lose everything, even the second half of last year, 800 yuan per mu of land acquisition costs are unable to pay, the government resumed planting base, subleased to other operators.

County wide flat located in Town of another solid vegetable planting base Weiguang same 1,000 acres of land, but there's no built greenhouses even finished it abandoned midway due to lack of funds. In the next base Weiguang also built a coal yard, previously parked Weiguang fleet, now deserted, leaving only a pile of coal plants. Guard told reporters that this pile of coal in the last year has been a high head loss to the bank mortgage, now the entire coal field has not a penny of the assets belonging to Weiguang, two cylinders are connected to the door of the seals affixed by the government.

Almost overnight, Weiguang professional cooperatives once popular instant Handan wither. Headquarters but not people, each county branch closed down one after another, and even some utilities have defaulted branch for several months, and only on the numbers, "Weiguang" signs also prove that it ever existed. Boss running, employees laid off, and some even more than a year did not get wages. The most direct pressure to bear, is agency staff groups. At first, they help farmers develop Weiguang "join a company", and now the farmers took the contract for the "capital stock certificate" They want to come back the principal and interest, but they have no money to repay.

According to statistics, there are nearly 10 million farmers Handan Weiguang cooperatives in the capital stock, the total amount has not been repaid to reach more than 140 million yuan. Reporters learned that the Handan City Public Security Bureau has already Weiguang incident investigation.

Morning News reporters Zai Handan and Cai Fang also found that "cooperative model" has become a common approach at the local farmers to absorb funds. In Handan, a variety of specialized cooperatives everywhere, methods are similar, both with high interest as bait to attract funds to farmers to become members. Throughout the Handan City, the number of farmer cooperatives have established many thousands. In just one county, walking down the street, can see a cooperative brand. Reporters had a street in Guangping County, saw signs seven cooperatives.