Trust Update for June: Number, Assets, Maturity Down, Interest Rates Up

Charts from 金牛理财. Report here. Put them together and the picture is consistent with the headlines. Investors are worried about lending to real estate developers, which is why the number of real estate trusts is still low and the types of trusts normally used for real estate, such as trust loans, are down sharply. One big difference from WMPs is that investors aren't piling into short-term trusts, they are abandoning them. Risk averse investors have gravitated towards WMPs, while the risk takers are still investing in longer maturity, high yield trusts.

The number of trusts in the bar, left scale. Money raised the line, right scale. The dark blue at the bottom of the bars is real estate.

Same pattern with newly established trusts:

Here's average maturity. Short-term trusts are disappearing.

Here's average maturity and average interest rates. There's your tight credit.

Here's the type of trust by structure. Dark blue are loans and the light blue is securities, which includes debt. The average maturity of the securities class of trusts jumped from 1.71 years to 4.09 years in June.

No Uptick In Fertility Despite Easing of One Child Policy

Last year when the change in the one child policy was announced, I wrote:

China is going to allow couples with one only child spouse to have two children. Currently, only couples in which both are only children can have two children. However, this law is only strictly enforced in the cities. So the number of people affected is quite small. Over at ZeroHedge, they cite a Bank of America report that estimates an incremental increase of 9.5 million babies, total.

Consider the bigger picture. China is urbanizing and one plan for keeping growth from collapsing to near 0-3% is to push more people into cities. The fertility rates in the cities is already low by choice. China increasingly looks like Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore, where the fertility rates are 1.1, 1.1 and 0.8 children born/woman, respectively. China's fertility rate is currently about 1.6 children born/woman.

If they want to raise fertility, they should deurbanize. China's fertility rate is headed lower, one child policy or not.

From Caixin: Hard Choices for Family Planners and Parents

So when the National People's Congress last December liberalized the policy – thus giving most of the country's families permission to have up to two children for the first time in 35 years – it seemed the hearts of the technocrats were finally softening. And it was widely assumed that many parents previously restricted to one child would jump at the chance to have a second.
But now, as the adjustments take full effect and the nation's "dandu" – the Mandarin word meaning "family in which either parent is an only child" – exercise their newly acquired freedom of choice, unexpected challenges to the government's family-control policies are starting to emerge.

For example, parents in many parts of the country did not react to the policy change by bearing more children, at least not immediately. Parents in Zhejiang Province, for example, filed only 27,549 applications for a second child between mid-January when the local government adjusted the birth control policy and March 31 – far below expectations. Experts had predicted the liberalization would increase province-wide births to about 800,000 annually, yielding a rate of 1.8 births per 1,000 people in Zhejiang compared to the 2010 birth rate of 1.02.

Some of the problems are due to bureaucracy:

One couple in the Zhejiang city of Taizhou had their second child December 28 – the same day congress approved the changes. But because the provincial government didn't enact a local version of the policy adjustment until January 17, the couple was fined 200,000 yuan.

And check out this fertility rate in the northeast:

What's happened so far has "thrown cold water" on these and other expert conclusions, said Wisconsin's Yi, who has studied recent data from across the country. All local family planning authorities continue to control the pace of allowance of second children by dandu families through an application and approval process. They are also mounting propaganda campaigns to dissuade couples of child-bearing age to avoid a baby boom.

As in Zhejiang, lower-than-expected birth rates so far this year in Sichuan have proven forecasters wrong. Some experts predicted Sichuan would see the rate rise to 1.43 from 1.33 after the one-child policy was relaxed. But that hasn't happened – at least not yet – because officials have approved in the policy's first month only 5,530 second-child requests from among some 28,464 parent-applicants.
The average birth rate for three northeastern provinces – Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang – has yet to rise from its low level of 0.75.

I had no idea it was that low, that is even lower than Singapore.

The negative conclusions by social scientists are as wrong as their optimistic estimates:

Several academics said that, from a demographic perspective, the years between 2005 and 2010 would have been an ideal period to adjust birth policies and thus the population. Now, they say, that window of opportunity is closing.

Li Jianmin, a professor of population policy at Nankai University's Population and Development Institute, says soon there will be no time left for significant reforms. "Once the window period has passed, it will be very difficult to reform later," he said.

Fertility rates can reverse rapidly; it only takes 9 months. There are deeply rooted cultural and ideological factor at work of course, but the change can occur rapidly. The intractable issue is that once you have a smaller child bearing population, an increase in fertility leads to an increase in dependents. The population pyramid turns into an hour glass.

People's Daily: Effect of Real Estate Slowdown on Economy Extremely Limited

A more measured "all is well" piece from the state media.

房地产对经济拖累十分有限

This year, as China gradually downward trend in the property market, was issued outside arguments about China's property market collapse, the real estate will be a drag on economic worries weak voice more and more. Experts believe that the property market entered a period of adjustment is rational return after experiencing 10-year high growth will be beneficial to China's economic structure adjustment to a higher quality of growth. Property markets will be a long process, prices will not appear cliff downwards, it will not have a significant impact on the Chinese economy.

Sparked concerns about weakness in the property market

With the contribution of the Chinese economy to the global economy is growing, China's economy every move triggered widespread concern outside world. Especially in the current Chinese economic growth continued to slow down in the background, the property market downturn is exacerbated by overseas concerns about China's economic downturn.

Chief economist at Citigroup Global William? Bout It appears that the global economic recovery still faces multiple risks, and a sharp slowdown in China's economic growth is one of them, mainly from two aspects: one is the credit bubble being squeezed, and the other is related to the construction and real estate activities significantly decline.

UBS Wealth Management, Chief Investment Officer, Asia Pacific, North Pu Yong Hao said that China Housing estate bubble has begun to burst, the current four-tier cities oversupply is very serious, first-tier cities housing prices high. Previously, the loss of real estate as stimulating economic policies biased main engine power into an economic drag on too anti-factor.

As for whether China's economic growth this year of 7.5% of the stated objectives completed, Citigroup chief economist for Greater China Shen Ming Gao said that there is a certain degree of difficulty, slow growth in domestic real estate investment on the one hand, on the other hand the high cost of domestic funds. At present, because the market is still worried about the cost of capital will rise again, but also worried about the speed of future interest rate market will push the cost of capital, so the lack of market confidence in the economy will lead to continued downward.

Little impact on the economy as a whole

Despite the current real estate market in China is not optimistic, sparked widespread concern, but for this to exaggerate the economic impact on the property market in China is still untenable views.

"Weak property market, prices fell GDP will certainly be affected, but the impact will not be much." Vice president of the China Real Estate Association keung told reporters that the central government would certainly take into account the impact on the economic development of the property market downturn brought so stressed by shantytowns, increased investment in affordable housing development efforts and other measures to hedge against the possible decline in the property market impact. For example, Beijing has increased the size of the protection of housing construction, the country as a whole is also true, but because of shantytowns and the proportion of affordable housing is not too high, and therefore may not be reflected in the hedging effect is very good.

"In China we see some real estate and local government debt risk, but on the other, the Chinese government has sufficient financial means to respond to crises that may arise." Peterson Institute for International Economics Adam? Posen said that the Chinese real estate market may not be the bubble, but the valuation is too high. As the Chinese people's leverage ratio is relatively low, the share of the assets they hold some developers are quite limited, so do not appear like Spain , Ireland and the United States where the economy so much destructive power.

"This year, the property market is destined to be the year for various reasons an adjustment, but if it follows that the impending collapse of the property market, there cliff downwards, this conclusion exaggerated." In the Ministry of Housing Policy Research Center, the main Renqin Hong opinion, the high base, low expectations , the impact of credit tightening has become the real estate market in 2014, the three main cause, but the total demand in the housing market in China is still a lot of space and healthy development of the market is still large.

Property also repeatedly hit new lows for the year

In fact, as a second-tier and fourth-tier property market differentiation, in varying degrees around the price adjustment, the impact on the economy is not exactly the same. Keung said the Guangzhou-Shenzhen and other cities northward, their industrial structure, industrial layout is relatively mature, the local sources of finance is relatively diversified economy better overall basis, the impact of the downturn on the local real estate turnover is not so obvious. Some small cities, rely on real estate is indeed obvious, or not affect the prosperity of the local property market is relatively large fiscal.

For some cities prices are still high, the housing market downturn will continue for some time, may occur repeatedly hit new lows in the process. "Weak in the first half of the property market turnover decline mainly reflected in the above, in the second half features may change, reflected in the price of loose." It seems that some local real estate prices could plunge in keung, by markdowns to stimulated volume recovery. If more housing prices taking to price change, market-based policies, coupled with a more relaxed compared to the first half of the credit policy, along with the volume picked up, prices bottom may soon emerge; But if market is still holding a wait and see attitude, housing prices do not take measures to return the funds, then the adjustment of the property market may be longer.

"We are on the current and medium-term real estate market still has faith." Qin Hong said that the future of the city [ News Price apartment Review ] Town of development, economic growth and stability upgrade consumption structure will provide space for the real estate market. The future development will focus on the past simple increase in the number, turned more attention to quality improvement.

Qilu Bank Denies Licheng Overdue Debt Is Government Debt

Foreign media played up the dispute between a bank and the local government. That narrative may be false.

地方政府债务违约首次曝光？

Qilu Bank previously released 2013 report shows, Licheng District, Jinan City Construction Comprehensive Development Company (hereinafter referred to as "historical city urban construction") 35,070,000 principal amount of the loan defaults and interest owed up to 6.13 million yuan, five are classified as doubtful loans and has litigation.

"Doubtful" means the borrower can not repay the loan principal and interest, even when guarantees are sure to cause greater damage. While some market participants believe that this is the first disclosure of bank loans to local government financing platform default, but denied Qilu Bank loan for local financing platform loans.

Denied local financing platform loans default

After the deep vortex of public opinion, Qilu Bank on July 2 issued a statement saying, Licheng urban construction has never been included in the financing platform mechanism, the loan is also non-government financing platform loans. Although there are some government background, but to carry out their business activities, is completely independent, self-financing, not a springboard for local government financing, the return of the bank's loan funding sources, but also from its own operations.

Business information, City Buildings built stand calendar 1992 with a registered capital of 18.06 million yuan, Jinan City was established as a wholly-owned Construction Authority. General business items include new construction, the transformation of the old range of real estate development, marketing and management services offered, rental housing.

It is understood that the company currently has no development projects in recent years, mainly engaged in its own name for the lease of real estate.

In fact, in 2012, urban construction has begun Licheng interest owed. The end of 2012, Licheng urban construction in the principal balance of the loan Qilu Bank's 35.1 million yuan, while the outstanding principal, interest owed 2.49 million yuan, but has, as a sub-category loan classification and 2012 Qilu Bank has filed litigation.

2013, Qilu Bank loan reduced from substandard to doubtful, due to interest rate has risen to 6.13 million yuan. According to Qilu bank loan rating categories, sub-categories represented the repayment ability of the borrower appears obvious problems, rely entirely on their normal revenues to pay back the loan principal and interest, even if the implementation of the guarantee may also cause some loss; Doubtful said borrowers people can not repay the loan principal and interest, even when guarantees are sure to cause greater damage.

According to the "First Financial Daily" reporter, after the establishment of the historical city urban construction, are carrying out with the Qilu Bank business, but business is relatively dispersed, the amount is small, by way of security are also different. To 2002, Qilu Bank Licheng dispersed urban construction business in a number of agencies to integrate the centralized sales department to handle. The urban construction loans guarantee Licheng Licheng gradually fixed by urban construction to provide collateral security, as well as by the Jinan City Urban Construction Investment Co., Ltd. ("Jinan City Investment") to provide joint liability guarantee.

Qilu Bank, 2005, Licheng urban construction to Qilu Bank for three items totaling 35.2 million yuan loans to name two loans secured by real estate to provide guarantees for which a sum of 15 million yuan loans by the Jinan City voted to provide guarantees. To 2008, the business process extension, extension 2010 expires after compression 100,000 yuan, the remaining 35.1 million yuan loans handled by the new-old procedures, guarantee still two pen collateral, a Jinan City investment guarantees. The loan in February 2012 there have been past due, according to the law to be followed Qilu Bank taken to court and won.

And to provide security for urban construction in Jinan City Licheng vote is financing platform has been included in the list, but the bank said in a statement Qilu, Jinan City investment has been included in the list, although financing platform, but this transaction is a continuation of the history of business, with normal business related, not financing platform loans.

But regardless of whether the local Licheng urban construction financing platform, in fact, as early as in 2010, banks have begun to compress Qilu local financing platform loans. Qilu Bank report shows that in 2010 Qilu Bank to recover by taking compression, conversion and other measures to clean up government financing platform loans, vehicle loans fell to 095 million yuan of 670 million yuan.

Ferocious local debt

The risk of local financing platform still can not be ignored. June 24, central bank vice governor Liu Shiyu said that the current domestic part of the financial risk of the more prominent areas or areas for potential financial risks should strengthen monitoring and analysis, resolve disposal of financial risks.

Among them, Liu Shiyu mentioned risk areas should continue to strengthen the local financing platform debt, all kinds of shadow banking, mutual insurance companies and other UNPROFOR monitoring and analysis, dynamic investigation of potential risks.

Prior to the National Audit Office audit report shows that by the end of June 2013 to the end of March 2014, nine Sheng Benji and nine first municipal government debt grew by 3.79% balance audit, more than six months of 2013, the average growth rate fell 7 percent. In addition, Sheng Benji old debt by the new larger amounts, 9 Sheng Benji to borrow new debt to repay maturing debt 57.93 billion yuan, 821 million yuan is still overdue.

Audit report also shows that until the end of June 2013, the national governments bear the responsibility to repay the debt 20.7 trillion yuan, bears WARRANTY 2.9 trillion yuan of debt, debt relief may bear some responsibility for 6.65 trillion yuan.

Central bank had issued the "China Financial Stability Report 2014," said the 2013, non-performing loans of banking institutions to maintain a low level, but the risk of local government financing platform, real estate and industries with excess capacity can not be ignored. Local government financing platform loans debt gradually entered the peak period, approximately 37.5% of the loans due in 2013-2015 years.

"Slowdown in economic growth in the context of the entire banking sector non-performing loan balance increased by greater pressure, compared with the rate of overdue loans steel, nonferrous metals, wholesale and other industries, the overdue rate many local financing platform." One bank industry to the "First Financial Daily" reporters.

In addition, under the Commission has pre-disclosure of part of the City firm's prospectus, the local financing platform loans, Bank of Hangzhou, Bank of Shanghai, Jiangsu Bank have indicated that non-performing loans as at end of last year, while the bad bank said low Guiyang government financing platform The average non-performing loan levels.

In the low-risk and high-profit, driven by domestic commercial banks still invest the funds through various channels of government financing platform. Audit on the part of the bank's audit report, audit tracking eight bank lending conditions and found that there are 374.988 billion yuan loans through collaboration with industry, financial and other types of credit funds to invest in the country to limit local government financing platform companies and real estate companies.

Wave of Bank President Resignations and Suicides As Anti-Corruption Policy Targets Banks

支行长“落马潮”背后原因：金融反腐风暴已刮入银行业

"This wave of trouble, why mostly branch president? You feel this financial corruption today? "

"'Corruption' word, used in the banking system, is appropriate?" For the 21st Century Business Herald reporter's question, a stock line length of a branch of the Yangtze River Delta region not answer. After hesitated a moment, and so asked.

Regardless of whether the person is willing to banking, financial sector anti-corruption storm has swept into the banking system.

Long Branch intensive "trouble"

Recently, Long Branch are dense "accident."

June 15, former Beijing Pinggu branch president Han Lifeng agricultural firms, real estate companies for repeatedly accepting bribes of more than 1,300 yuan, the Beijing Second Intermediate People's Court of First Instance was taking bribes and sentenced to 14 years. (Read: Beijing Rural Commercial Branch Pinggu former president Han Lifeng more than 13 million bribery trial )

June 13, west of the city of Shaoxing, Zhejiang branch of China Construction Bank governor Hui-Chun Chen, suspected of illegal fund-raising 300 million yuan by the police, "Control." CCB said it arrested on May 13 in front of his resignation has been submitted and approved. (Read: CCB beauty governor opened more than 20 bank cards to raise funds are flowing into the hands of one person )

June 11, a branch of the bank in Fuyang, Anhui Vice President falls dead, police identified the suicide but the cause is still under investigation. (Read: Anhui Huai Ying, vice president of agricultural firms falls dead branch of the Department initially determined to commit suicide )

Earlier, former ICBC Wenzhou Economic and Technological Development Zone Branch Long Yue, Lin Chunping Wenzhou businessmen who received benefits, to help Lin loans, "convenience", take the dry stock dividends 320,000 yuan. After Lin Chunping because "the acquisition of the U.S. Atlantic [ 1.32% funding research report ] bank "caught in a lie, unmasked, Wu was sentenced to 10 years and 6 months.

These are incomplete comb public information. Recently it was rumored, the ICBC branch in Wenzhou Yongjia Branch Vice President was taken in for questioning local procuratorate.

The vice governor Zhao was taken away in the eyes of colleagues, "genius." Who had worked with the bank and its customer-service manager, Zhao was 80, "just two years from the secondary sub-branch vice president, rising to level branch president." Zhao workers into line since the former Wenzhou City chief of a branch of the credit, Ou wuyan Branch (two sub-branches) deputy governor, governor and other duties, in 2012 promoted to Assistant President Yongjia County Branch, and changed to vice president in charge of the company's business.

"This is one of the youngest branch president be exposed." A local source told the 21st Century Business Herald said last month, Zhao Changxing, Huzhou meetings during the training, was taken away in Wenzhou city prosecutors. This may involve its ouhai wuyan branch of the responsible person during customer acceptance and alleged bribes, illegal fund-raising and so on. Currently still under investigation.

Branch Why "lost degree"

Why sacked long intensive branch of the banking system in a ring?

"Although I am now working, but almost every day flies frightened." Branch of a stock line a long sigh Wenzhou area, according to the bank's institutional setup, Branch carries almost all business, risk and other pressures, "the heavier responsibility, relative power will be great. "

Wenzhou, for example, since 2011, with the outbreak of the financial crisis in Wenzhou private lending crisis, with regulatory bodies and political and legal system to strengthen the non-performing assets and Stroke the default treatment efforts, a number of financial professionals involved in financial criminal case, has been revealed.

Local Judiciary incomplete data show that since 2011 the local financial crisis, Wenzhou, at least 50 illegal because bankers are processed. Which includes more than a dozen bank executives. In addition to involving illegal deposits from the public, but also involved in illegal loans, loan fraud, illegal business, job occupation, bribery and other charges.

A local financial regulators believe that "a lot of domestic banks or bureaucratic culture, fancy" cronyism, the only faction, the only gold. "

"Year after year pressure." An in situ method Organisation Bank Branch Long said the recent rise more than expected failure rate, bank lending hand smoke, charge credit and credit crunch, while loans total evaluation index was unchanged . This name Branch long been swapped positions this year, and so was demoted. His salary has been cut, the difference several times.

21st Century Business Herald reporter on the legal institutions in a number of banks in the survey in Zhejiang found that bank employees salaries polarization. Local branch of long or more, the annual salary of one million were relatively common; while Branch length or less, the current economic environment, not only the exhibition industry pressure, and sometimes normal rest periods can not be guaranteed. More than wage income line of business persons, less than 3,000 yuan monthly salary.

Along with appraisal pressure, some banks due to their own set of product innovation capacity is not enough, resulting in the appointment of staff emphasizes "social relations" beyond capacity.

"It's bureaucratic style of shares should be clear of." Zhejiang Province, a state-owned bank, a branch president of the 21st Century Business Herald reporter "Tucao." Because of weaknesses in the credibility of the brand, and Zhejiang Jiangmin camp developed economy led to the demand for loans is far better than deposits, small banks "sequestration" very difficult.

Solution, one is the head office will deposit some areas more loans to less credit line to deploy to deposit ratio appropriate regulatory requirements; hand it relies on the "loan-to-deposit pull" to hematopoiesis.

Long Branch level, especially in order to deposit for great customer service to the saddle before the horse. Thus the second to the distance between the president and large customers getting closer, sometimes in order to help the customer financing, "loss of the" straightforward. Once the economic downturn, some of the credit policy to play the "edge ball" project funding problems surfaced, these naked swimmers when the tide will be "gone."

"Ring storm" logic

CBRC website, June 8 to 9, the CBRC Chairman Shang Fulin visit Shaoxing, Zhejiang Branch Banking. With Shang Fulin's visit, Zhejiang banking system has left a group of invisible pressure.

"In fact, Shang Fulin to Zhejiang, also for the bank's risk evaluation and other areas to do a study." Zhejiang Financial regulators, a staff member said he received a number of related instructions from their superiors.

Shaoxing Branch Banking mass line is the point of contact practice Shang Fulin second batch of the party's education, but also the central point of contact for the 12th Circuit steering group.

Bankers in the region over Zhejiang told 21st Century Business Herald reporter recently, once again received a grant of anti-party organizations, "four winds" notification. For example, since the Spring Festival this year, prohibiting party cadres organized and participated in "Liquor Board," "Board" problem activities; canteen eating and drinking inside the unit also conduct supervision and inspection and other issues.

A state-level branch of Bank deputy governor, said the organization's monitoring system in the region, "the prevention and control anti Four Winds" and other activities carried out several times, "risk control is a top priority."


A city branch president open systems firm, found that two months, on such "rectification activities" information no less than 18, from party members at the beginning of the popularity of the general staff level to the full line.

"The intensity is I have not seen previously." Legal person of a local bank sigh. In fact, it shares the storm, scratch the top and bottom circular convection duct system of the internal problems of the banking system so that the layers peel.

There are public opinion research institutions through the Agricultural Bank of China [ -0.40% funding research report ] observed Vice President Yang Kun, Yantai Bank Chairman Zhuang Yonghui, Postal Savings Bank President Tao Liming and other executives sacked events, analyze bank executives sacked series of cases context of public opinion that bank executives sacked several cases show the hidden crisis in the banking system and risk management.

June 8 this year, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection Supervision website news shows, the disciplinary committee of the National Development Bank CDB 周清玉 at an enlarged meeting of the Discipline Inspection Commission stressed the need to carry out investigation and employee behavior, concentration and control organ style, to prevent corruption in the field of credit penetration, and control credit the risk of funds and personnel.

Jinan Asks for Permission From MoH to Ease Buying Restrictions

Interesting development in the battle to ease buying restrictions. I have assumed that, behind the scenes, the Ministry of Housing put the kibosh on the cities that openly said they were cancelling buying restrictions. Now Jinan is forcing an open confrontation by publicly stating the Mayor agrees with recommendations to cancel buying restrictions, but waits for the MoH's approval.

济南回应市长批示取消楼市限购：正待住建部批

From the 2nd, network transmission, Jinan will cancel real estate purchase documents, the Jinan Municipal Construction Committee responded by saying, "Now the city is studying, have reported that the Ministry of Housing for approval."

Jinan official response, "the mayor instructed to cancel the property purchase ": studying pending

July 2, a signed by the mayor as "Jinan Urban and Rural Construction Committee" instructions to cancel the purchase of the property file to begin circulating in social networking sites, after several media accounts forwarding, fueled widespread concern.

In this regard, the Jinan Municipal Construction Committee, responded that the city is now being studied, have reported that the Ministry of Housing for approval.

Network transmission mayor agreed to cancel the purchase instructions

Qilu network correspondent noted that circulated on the Internet "on the city's real estate purchase policy adjustments instructions" mentioned in the document, "Municipal Construction Committee proposed commercial housing sales in the first half of Jinan City saw a decline and prices fall stagflation phenomenon, in order to maintain Jinan City real estate market healthy and stable development, the Municipal Construction Committee and the city housing authority after the study recommended the lifting of restrictions within the city purchase new housing and housing stock. "

Inscribed seal is displayed, the file reporting unit for the Jinan Urban and Rural Construction Committee, dated June 26, 2014.

According to the outflow of the picture, as well as the Mayor of Jinan City, Yang Lu Yu's instructions, "Urban and Rural Committee agreed to recommend to strengthen the follow-up management to prevent big ups and downs." Inscribed date is June 27.

Urban Construction Committee responded: Ministry of Housing is studying to be awarded

For the authenticity of this document circulated on the Internet, there are users according to "party official writing does not meet requirements" identified as false documents.

2 pm, Jinan City, Grange, director of Urban and Rural Construction Committee, said, "Now the city is studying, have reported that the Ministry of Housing for approval."

According to industry sources declined to be named said, as early as a month or two ago, Jinan City, Jinan Urban Construction Commission and Housing Authority and other units have been canceled the purchase of discussions in Changqing District, High-tech Zone and other area first release to cancel the purchase . From this, the city has now become all canceled.

Jinan, a city construction company traced default interest owed

Disclosed in 2013 annual report recently released by Qilu Bank, Licheng District, Jinan City Construction Comprehensive Development Company (hereinafter referred to as "Licheng District Urban Construction Company") 35,070,000 principal amount of the loan defaults and interest owed up to 6.13 million yuan.

Business information, Licheng District Urban Construction Company was founded in 1992 with registered capital of 18.06 million, was established as a wholly owned Jinan City Construction Bureau, is mainly engaged in the construction of Licheng District, the transformation of the old range of real estate development. 1990s, the cities of widespread urban development off the climax, one is the new city planning and development; second is the transformation of the old city, the new.

As a general pattern, then each jurisdiction by the District Construction Bureau, Jinan funded the establishment of a city construction company, preparing for the Construction Committee under the area of ​​public institutions, specifically undertake the task of building the city district level.


According to available information, the commercial banks publicly disclose government debt default is still rare.

Nearly half of May fell Jinan Transaction

June 23, at the National Bureau of Statistics data released prices for nearly a week later, Jinan Urban and Rural Construction Committee announced in May 2014 the city's new housing market data, May Jinan total net signed 3053 turnover of new residential units, more than 2014 4 January 1204 to reduce the sets.

From each city real estate network signed data, in May the highest volume Huaiyin District, 900 units, followed by Lixia District 805 sets, 572 sets of Licheng District, Central City 332 sets, 251 sets of high-tech zones, Changqing District 140 sets, 53 sets flyover zone.

Since January 2013, Jinan, second-hand housing prices rose by 15 consecutive months of situation. May, second-hand housing Jinan houses appeared for the first time both fell within two years, although the market demand is still, watching the atmosphere increasingly strong, many buyers waiting for lower prices.

New South China Mall Fights For Survival, Spends ￥200 Million on Reinvention

Background

Wiki: New South China Mall

CNN coverage:


Vagabond Journey:


Vagabond Journey coverage: New South China Mall: An Update On The World’s Largest (Ghost) Mall

In the video from last year, the mall looks the same as it was when I was there in early 2011, but business picked up in June according to the article below. Visitors hit a new high of 80,000 on June 1 and average time spent by visitors increased. The developer in charge now is also looking to be cash flow positive by 2017, which still gives him two-and-a-half years to improve the situation.

Many shop owners had purchased their shop space, but the new owner, PKU Resources (PKU= Peiking University), has repurchased property and currently owns about 80% of the retail space.

Next year on May 1, the mall will have its grand "re-opening" following the ￥200 million renovation.

“全球最大商场”华南Mall2亿元重新改造 免租求生

See high-speed rail bolt again, he was busy and a number of new friends - go to New South China Mall in late stationed shop bosses, lively discussion daily operation. The original six months before the world's biggest and, as this is the foreign media called a "ghost town" of the shopping center, general manager of South China Mall, in the outside world in a variety of exaggerated rumors, he did hit the wall every day, Chaiqiao, fill fountains ......

"June 1 the same day, people traffic and sales hit a record of South China Mall." Tied to high-speed rail, " First Financial Daily "said that the day of the flow of people reached about 80,000 people.

"Eat to queue" here today became the deepest feelings. According to a number of days and department stores in the shopping guide describes the clothing retail counters, the business can be, and now the weather is hot, the evening more people.

"Just opened that week, the daily turnover is calculated to tens of thousands." Maniform underwear store clerk told this newspaper that, according to her observations, despite the current business was good, but the people who come here mainly to eat, drink, Incidentally shopping.

Opened from January to now, South China Mall daily average flow of people to keep more than 1 million people, per capita increased residence time of 2 to 3 hours.

Bao Xing Tea restaurant owner said Lee, whose business is getting better, the South China Mall stores operating performance has slowly than in Dongguan old results.

In fact, since 2005 for the public business, South China Mall in the industry is being questioned. 2012, with the "vacancy rate of 99%." Rumors emerged, this former "world's biggest shopping mall" was sensationally dubbed "ghost town" title.

200 million yuan to reinvent

December 2006, Peking University Resource Group from South China Mall in the hands of the original owner, Hu Guirong officially took over the project.

According to high-speed rail bolt memories, since taking over, the South China Mall has been solving problems left over by history, "North resources only requirement is to make an inventory of my assets, to achieve cash flow positive in 2017."

According to the plan the budget resources allocated 200 million yuan for the North South China Mall large transformation, which includes all aspects of the transformation of the transformation of moving lines, facade renovation, interior transformation.

According to Wen, 胡对华 South Mall devoted a great deal of effort, from the United States invited a very well-known design company to do the architectural design, which is home to the American design company moved to the U.S. shopping center designed Dongguan.

Many industry insiders believe that the Chinese shopping mall to be busy farm, food is a very important part. South China Mall American design to the main building left a lot mishap.

"We got a shopping center, business lunch needed gas, grease traps, cesspools, no nothing." High iron bolt, said late reformation, cost a lot of money.

In addition, American-style shopping malls are not designed to meet the Chinese shopping mall crowd movements. South China Mall now shatter the previous entrance building, tore down the bridge into the plaza, fountains landfill, the entire square was completely open.

"Before no transformation, which very few people would go to the shops." Said a merchant South China Mall.

In addition to reconstruction, recovery of retail property is also placed in front of a puzzle university resources. According to university resources to verify Before the acquisition, the South China Mall, 80% of retail property rights have been sold to individual property owners.

Insiders believe that, in order to supplement cash flow selling shops, but also a lot of shopping centers ills. Non-owned property shops scattered distribution, disrupting the overall planning and operation of the entire shopping center.

North resources have gradually recovered some of the shops of the property, with 80% of the property rights of the shops. High iron bolt that at present, there is still a small number of retail properties have not been recovered.

After the transformation of a South China Mall opened earlier this year to next year May 1 opening across the board.

"Ground gas"

"Mall targeting tier cities' Tall 'die', high-speed rail bolt believe play" Tall "in a second-tier cities as well as room for survival, but in shopping malls get together 34 cities dead," we do 80% of people in business, vision aimed at general consumers. "

This is a high-speed rail bolt carrier South China Mall experience.

However, after the South China Mall chose a path contrary. The former boss 胡桂荣 South China Mall "based on the PRD, the radiation the whole of China," its position on, partial end businesses to recruit them. South China Mall opened in early 2005, B & Q, a group of influential companies have entered Causeway Bay, did not last long, not long before, on the face of the embarrassing situation of dismantling businesses.

After the disk access, high-speed rail bolt first South China Mall repositioned from the previous "based on the Pearl River Delta, the radiation the whole of China" to "based Wan Jiang, Dongguan radiation." He believes in the four-tier cities to do shopping center, the first decoration to be very beautiful, with big cities so that consumers enjoy shopping environment, but the introduction of the brand and positioning, to "ground gas", in line with local market consumers awareness, spending power.

Reporter visited found that the first phase of South China Mall opened, the investment [ Introduction News ] home most of the Dongguan local brands, such as its main store days and department stores, SPA boutique supermarket, as well as the popular 26 restaurants in Dongguan stores.

"In addition to days and department stores, supermarkets, and opened the second phase next year interspersed with a small number of similar Semir, in plain clothes integrated shop, South China Mall is not another trick retail." High-speed rail bolt introduction, the entire South China Mall's investment structure has undergone great changes, the former dominated by retail shopping centers, into a restaurant, 40%, 30% experiential retail accounted for 30% of the shopping complex.

"Adjusting the narrow retail, expanding dining experience and interaction has become the development trend of Chinese-style shopping mall." Mall China Information Officer Guo Zengli think, dining and interactive experiential focus, and has a good ability to attract customers.

It is reported that in the future the new positioning South China Mall in Dongguan is the greatest food city.

According to the terms of Peking University Resource Group, said the South China Mall will be opened next year the second phase, the majority of investment objects catering, plus offices , medical centers, children's education, gym.

Although the proportion of high-speed rail bolt believe in reducing retail at the mall, but not the investment proportion Mall binding, different consumption habits of consumers in each region should be adapted to local conditions.

"Stores thinking" shopping center operators

High iron bolt that the key is not the shopping center investment, "Merchants Mall role in only 30%, 60% are planning follow-up operation, 10% after the opening, the investment team to communicate with each business, running."

This implies that investors should change the shopping center "to recruit them, the rent" operational thinking. "Once and for all" is no longer the shopping center business ideas, how to follow-up operation is the highlight of a shopping center trader.

The traditional retail sector is operating goods, and shopping centers are operating shops. High iron bolt believe that shopping center should introduce some aspects of management thinking department. For example, the shopping center rents received deduction mode is changed to department store model, "so, shopping center investors will pay more attention to operations, and recruit them traders are more confident."

The maximum deduction is characterized by doing the business of risk and investors, in general, do deduction is two extremes, one is very difficult investment, the other is very confident on the results of the mall.

In addition, the department's management focus on incremental performance, refinement to each brand and each species. "Shopping centers are also doing the same investment team in need of counseling businesses constantly adjust the brand, adjusted to the most suitable for this shopping mall consumers." High iron bolt, said the success of every major shopping center activities, is a large flow of the main store , investors should be actively involved in constantly doing activities, manufacturing highlights for the shopping center to attract more crowd.

Early 2013, a period of re-opening the South China Mall, North Resources money to consumers around the camp [ News Price apartment Review ] send 50 million coupons.

"Catering primarily to help these two on the third floor, be disguised subsidies to them." Not only that, the South China Mall merchants enrolled in the first year of all rent-free. High iron bolt that the key to a shopping center can be maintained to support the business is to live, "Flower 20 million strokes LV come, reach sales, they also want to Withdraw."

However, at present, the industry is doing the shopping center with department stores do share too clear.

High iron bolt, said the future of South China Mall is still a long way to go, and the investment team's operations is the key.

Guangzhou Loosens Buying Restrictions, Prices Jump 30%, Do You Believe It?

So says the headline of this article: 广东限价限签松绑致楼价飙升30%以上 你信吗？ Government data shows transactions down in June, but prices up 2.7% mom to a new high, and up 30.3% yoy. According to the article, industry insiders don't trust the government data and believe prices are down about 15%.

The article concludes with some discussion of the September/October outlook—as noted here, this period now looms large in the minds of everyone in residential real estate. If volume doesn't increase or at least bottom out during the summer, a big wave of price cuts will be needed to move property.

Guangzhou in June hit a record high price of net signed

Industry analysts said the Guangzhou housing prices drop 15 percent in whole or in

■ Express reporter Chen Qi

A data center to the latest statistics, the city of Guangzhou in June 5780 net signed first-hand residential units, the average price 16,820 yuan / square meter, up infer decline in value, trading volume fell 20.4 percent year on year, while the average price has surged 30.3%. Express reporter learned that the first six months of this year, the Guangzhou city's primary residential net signed 33,020 units, fell 31 percent year on year, the average price 14,978 yuan / square meter, up 9.1 percent year on year. However, industry insiders believe that the official website to check the data affected by many factors leading to distortion, Guangzhou property prices actually fell, and this year's decline may be as high as 15%.

Price

Prices rose 30.3 percent year on year highs

Prices, the city's primary residential average price of net signed up 16,820 yuan / square meter, a new high, up by 2.7 percent, rising 30.3 percent year on year it is.

June highest average price of 44,537 yuan, Tianhe region / sq m, in addition Yuexiu [ Introduction News ] area of 38,967 yuan / square meter, followed by the city's total price reached 30,000 yuan two regions / m mark. In addition to the peripheral area of Huadu and Conghua price is not broken million others were broken million, the highest for Panyu, reached 16,019 yuan / square meter.

This year, Guangzhou has repeatedly been on the real estate control policy fine-tuning, the standard limit is a substantial increase in some areas, while the limit for high disk check policy has also been relaxed. Resulting in Tianhe and Yuexiu average highs.

No limit on the implementation of the purchase of Zengcheng, Conghua two places, from the beginning of May, the limit line is relaxed, Conghua receive the latest real estate pre-license limit standard has been raised to nearly yuan / square meter, while the developer agreed Zengcheng cancel the two contracts, the actual sales price.

Data Center statistics show that the average price of the top ten real estate network signed 133 sets of units, sea Huacheng Bay [ News Price apartment Review ] push new, single disc is net signed 112 sets, the average price of 47,438 yuan / square meter, the highest average price is Xinhui Overseas Chinese Yue Taiwan [ News Price apartment review ] for 117,422 yuan / square meter, tenth as high as 45,210 yuan average price / square meter, the display panel high net signed more smoothly.

Meanwhile, last year due to the government to further curb rising housing data, the introduction of restrictions on sale, limit, overweight administrative measures to limit sign, making the price decline in June last year, resulting in slightly lower base year.

Transaction

Net signed up fell 20.4% to 5,780 units

According to statistics sunshine house edge data show that in June of net signed Guangzhou 5780 primary residential units, a slight decrease of 0.97% in May, fell 20.4 percent year on year, total sales area of ​​732,000 square meters.

Under the "May Day" holiday boost, REF increase the preferential part of the sale of new goods also pushed down prices, overall market volume rebounded. Into June, more than the price of real estate is almost nearing completion, turnover has decreased, but the decrease was not significant. However, compared with June last year, net signed copy to drop 20.4 percent year on year, indicating that the market is still unable to return to last year's level.

In the district, due to a number of projects previously Panyu prices, effectively promoting the deal, Panyu is the only region over thousands of sets mark, reaching 1305 units, increasing urban and signed 863 sets, ranking second in the peripheral region of the suburbs is still the main contract.

Centre Region VI 2121 total net signed sets, accounting for 36.7% of the city's net signed copy of the gradual relaxation of the limit, the network maintained in the central region to sign a good level, a new boost in Huangpu District Luogang the outskirts of the main push cargo Area , the network signed 731 sets, is the center of the largest area of ​​six districts.

Outlook forecast

Guangzhou property prices rise or fall by 15% by the end of

"Guangzhou property prices to fall 15 percent this year as a whole!" Yesterday, CRIC Information Group will refrain estate Guangzhou ratings were lowered, indicating the property market is expected to pessimism. The group's chief analyst, said the Guangzhou area Yong-Guang Liang, May, June, Guangzhou less than one tenth the price of real estate, property prices are still down space, the end to bottom. In policy terms, as a first-tier cities of Guangzhou untied the short term will not purchase, mortgage policies Not seen signs of relaxation.

Opening day of the four percent market heat rate is not high

CRIC Guangzhou agency in May, June monitor 25 items appear to Guangzhou price behavior, accounting for sale of real estate in Guangzhou in less than a tenth, and many projects in a small amount of special units to cut prices to attract attention, while the real markdowns only about 12 projects, most visible real estate in Guangzhou price appears meaningful number is still small, the developer of sincerity is still insufficient.

By monitoring Guangzhou in May, June 20th opening key projects, in terms of the new push, push the sales potential of new projects launched in 4250 sets, while on sale the same day as the 1785 transaction sets, items of average to 42%. Frequent comparison with last year's "Day CD" phenomenon of the past two months to only 40% less than market heat. From a regional perspective, Panyu District to melt relatively good, because the situation in Panyu District, appeared to push a sale of real estate are more attracted many home buyers. Away the worst area of ​​Nansha District, not the amount of new push, and the price is high, turnover more depressed.

According to CRIC Rate 288 index analysis, in June 2014, Guangzhou Yishoufang price index for 1199.1 points, up by 3.5 points, up 0.29 percent, rose 9.12 percent year on year increase continuously narrowed since 2014. Guangzhou continuous increase in price index narrowed by the Guangzhou property market because of the recent price surge affected across the country, buyers wait and see mood appears mentality, and most of the price of the project developers lack of sincerity, the two sides presented stalemate.

Refrain from the sale of the project to be downgraded

"This year, the overall decline in property prices in Guangzhou, or about 15%." Grams and chief analyst at the Swiss Canton Regional Yong-Guang Liang believes that this year will go into the bottom of the Guangzhou property prices at the end, then will rebound continues to hover around the bottom half. He also stressed that the trend will depend on the specific market, " Golden September and Silver October , "the market performance.

It is reported that Guangzhou agencies have CRIC Guangzhou 339 items on sale rating adjustment period due to changes in the larger market, which downgraded 97 projects, accounting for 28.61% of all rated items. Among them, the downgrade is the largest real estate Huadu District, Huadu District project because most prices remain strong, did not practice with the market direction, and that much good Huadu District recently, most of the real estate turnover has put slow.

■ Expert opinion

Golden September and Silver October prices slightly lower than in the first half for the opportunity to ship

Outlook for the property market in the second half trends, Wu Rong, director of the super market to bank pointed out that the Guangzhou property market in the first half of volume shrinkage, stable prices, and some amount of real estate prices go effective, but the moment has not yet formed price surges. Is expected in the second half will not be much change in the policy environment, tight monetary policy is expected, due to the relatively quiet first half of the property market, developers strongly urge the second half of the stock is expected to seize the "golden nine silver ten" promotional opportunity, then the market will relatively warm, but the volume is difficult to substantially finished.

In this context, the developer will launch a number of measures to stimulate the turnover of various marketing activities will occur more turnover will be more concentrated in large real estate developer's their strength, more flexible forms of promotion, the majority of small developers Select the holding plate slowly sales, the largest mid-sized strategic variables. Therefore, the overall price growth slowed slightly lower than the overall level of the price level in the first half.

For developers in the second half trends, Zou Qin, director of sales to the line, "said the first half of residential projects volume decline, some developers markdowns negative impact on the surrounding area sector increases, we follow the trend of accelerated price move. the second half of the developers playing the price war is inevitable, some developers funding chain problems, but do not rule out the possibility of taking the amount of flesh.

Copper Ready to Turn Lower or Break Higher?

Chinese Local Governments Have 10 Trillion in Stimulus Planned, But No Way to Pay For It

An unofficial and informal count by Chinese media puts recently added mini-stimulus projects at ￥10 trillion. Now if only they could sell some land or borrow to pay for it.

Data puts local government investment projects at ￥14.7 trillion through May, an increase of 17.6% yoy, the slowest growth rate since 2002. Sichuan increased its planned projects by 40% in March to nearly ￥3 trillion. Guangdong, Tianjin, Hainan and 5 other municipalities and provinces announced ￥7 trillion in projects. Analysts say "mini-stimulus" is now an all-year round effort by local governments.

However, Stephen Green of Standard Chartered says "local governments dream big, but what they can do is limited." Lin Jiang, professor of Public Finance and Taxation at Lingnan University, says that unless the central government decides to do a "strong" stimulus, the mini-stimulus will stay mini.

媒体：各地刺激政策总规模超10万亿 钱从哪来成谜

The total size of the stimulus around 10 trillion over investment-led economic growth to return to the old?

"Micro stimulus" in place will become a "strong stimulus"?

Are strong stimulation, it depends on the shots or massive government intervention in the market;

As long as no massive credit expansion, not a "strong stimulus"

Under the guidance of the central "micro-stimulus" policies, the Yangcheng Evening News reporter observed that competed this year, the local government's stimulus policies, according to incomplete statistics, the scale has accumulated over 10 trillion. "Micro stimulus" is intended to adjust the structure of steady growth, but whether it will be implemented in the local government into a "strong stimulus"? Yesterday, the Yangcheng Evening News reporter interviewed Professor Lingnan College of Finance and Taxation Lin Jiang, he said, "micro-stimulus" policies are implemented to a degree where the problem does exist, but as long as a good grasp of the rhythm of the central and local stimulus and investment projects entirely controllable.

Around the stimulation of more than 10 trillion yuan total size

Copy of the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to May, the local investment 14.7 trillion, an increase of 17.6%, the growth rate down 0.2 percentage points, its lowest value since 2002.

But another group of messages have shown that early March this year, Sichuan raised the value of 2.88 trillion yuan investment plan, an increase of up to 40%, after Guangdong, Hainan, Tianjin and other cities announced five priority lists 7130000000000 project; recently introduced 65 in Heilongjiang measures, plans to invest more than 300 billion yuan steady growth. According to incomplete statistics, the total planned investment in the current provinces has reached 10 trillion yuan.

In fact, in early April of this year the State Council executive meeting decided to expand the small and micro enterprise income tax preferential scope, and proposed support shantytowns and speed railway construction policy is considered to be a series of targeted "micro-stimulus" begins; mid-April, the central bank announced that due to lower RRR county rural banks and rural cooperative banks; mid-June, for the "three rural" and small micro-stock banks usher in the second round of semi-directional drop. Many analysts had to Yangcheng Evening News reporter, said, "micro-stimulus" has become a year-round tone.

"Micro stimulus" hard landing into a "strong stimulus"

However, where up to 10 trillion total investment plan has sparked fears of many market participants, whether the central government introduced a series of orientation "micro stimulus" to the place where it will become "strong stimulus", thus stimulating investment return old it?

Yesterday, Professor of Finance and Taxation Lingnan College Lin Jiang told Yangcheng Evening News reporter, said, do not worry too much about "micro-stimulus" to place a "strong stimulus" problem, because ultimately take this degree or at the central level.

"As long as there is no large-scale credit expansion, it will not become a 'strong stimulation'." He said that in the past the "strong stimulus" There is a clear signal from the central enterprises and state-owned enterprises and guarantee bank loans to boost investment, "Now look, just off the central bank and the CBRC can good."

Stephen Green, head of research at Standard Chartered Bank Greater China, then use the "Local Government dream big, but actually do is limited," a word used to evaluate. He told reporters that he did not rule out the central level for GDP increasingly worried that the local government will increase the downward pressure on economic concerns, thus speeding up the local investment, "but the local government rushed to throw money at the same time focus on the project must be considered to funding problems. "

And it seems that the river in the forest, but also means that local governments correct steady growth and structural adjustment. Lin Jiang believes that the local government is also currently a platform to accelerate clean up local debt, supervision of the State Council is in fact Forced restructuring of local government, in order to avoid loss of direction in economic development, "if only to mention economic growth, structural adjustment is not good, highly dependent on local investment in fixed assets, worries difficult to dispense. "

The money come from? Test the ability of government funding

Municipalities up to 10 trillion yuan of investment behind the money come from to become an intricate puzzle. This year, the total scale of social financing and bank credit growth are called shrinkage, growth significantly decline. The previous government relies on the "land finance" is because of the current real estate market situation has become difficult to speculate.

"It is worth noting is that there is a lag of land finance phenomenon." Said Stephen Green, often need to buy a piece of land and then pay the balance after six months, from the data, the last large-scale land, so the first half of the land revenue does not there is a marked decline, "but I personally feel that the future of the land will become increasingly difficult to finance because of the size of the down the land auction." said Stephen Green, such as slum upgrading projects and other areas, as the central orientation stimulus, CDB will also give some support, "but undeniably, place a lot of pressure to raise funds."


Lin Jiang believes that the future of local government to raise money through the following channels will be two aspects of investment from the private sector, on the other hand is from financial innovation. "But this is definitely not mean that the government can not borrow money from the bank," Lin Jiang explained that one of the criteria to determine whether a "strong stimulus" to market behavior is still dominated massive government intervention.

Lin Jiang believes that from the commercial principles, as long as the bank identified risk control, some government investment projects can still get financing money from the bank, "of course, prefer to use the central government bonds, funds, guarantees and other financial instruments that can and revitalize the stock of private capital. "

It seems to have passed some provinces practices embodied, in June of this year, Shaanxi announced 39 projects open to social capital, covering six areas of transportation, water conservancy, a total investment of 270.4 billion yuan. Some media statistics estimate, Shaanxi, Hunan, Chongqing, Henan and other places, recently opened to the public funding of hundreds of investment projects totaling more than 950 billion yuan.

Loan to Deposit Ratio Eased For Some Loans

Mainland China banking regulator to ease loan-to-deposit ratio

The mainland's banking regulator will relax how it calculates its loan-deposit ratio, tiptoeing around more arduous changes to the banking law while delivering a light boost to the economy.

Starting tomorrow, the China Banking Regulatory Commission will remove three types of loans from the regulation's scrutiny, including funds lent under the central bank's relending facility to support small enterprise and commercial bank loans from international financial institutions or foreign governments, the regulator said on its website.

The ratio limits outstanding loans to no more than 75 per cent of their deposits. A change in the regulation was expected, analysts said. In recent weeks, officials at CBRC have noted the positive impact a small adjustment to the law could have.

"This has been well accepted and well predicted by the market," said Lu Ting, the head of China research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "The impact will be quite small."

In the post-2008 stimulus plan, China forced the banks to lend. As with the lifting of buying restrictions that favor speculators, easing credit rules doesn't do much to change the trend once a downtrend is underway. Banks don't want to lend when credit conditions are worsening. These types of policy changes can nudge the trend when it is going in a favorable direction, but do next to nothing if the trend is moving the other way.

End of June Sees Home Sales Spike

Here's one for the optimists: home sales spiked sharply in end of June and there were even cases of "panic buying" during "one-day sales" as developers pushed property ahead of their mid-year financial snapshot.

购房者排队抢房多地现“日光盘” 几百套房抢购一空

Despite the chill property market is strong now, but the recent emergence of many national "Day CD", buyers lined up to grab No. phenomenon reproduction.

Yesterday (June 30), " Daily Economic News "reporter interviewed found that when the end of June is the deadline for developers to semi-annual statistics, in order to produce beautiful data, developers launched a" rush in "offensive.

According to media reports, June 28 , Xu Hui [ Introduction News ] is located in a residential project in Chongqing opened within a half hour sold 572 units, with sales of 208 million yuan the same day as the "Day CD." Xu Hui in Shanghai Jinshan Property also recently opened the first time, to melt Jiucheng.

June 21, Hengda [ Introduction News ] Hengda in Hefei central square [ News Price apartment Review ] opening achieved sales of 2.56 billion yuan, followed by Pingdingshan Hengda [ News Price apartment Review ] project also opened achieved sales of 610 million yuan. Hefei Evergrande central plaza opened this year to create a national property sales records, while Pingdingshan Hengda opening sales record this year to create a three-tier cities.

June 28, Hangzhou Intime west side of a real estate opened, more than 120 suites source introduced soon be sold out. But there are still many buyers queuing scene, developers and homeopathic push unit side cover.

Blissful real estate market research statistics show that 23 to 29 June in Shanghai real estate transaction area of 387,300 square meters, the chain rose 40.9 percent over the previous week, the average transaction price of 22,639 yuan / square meter, compared to the previous week rose 6.23 %.

Blissful estate Lu Qilin, research director, said:. "Volume rose significantly last week, the main reason lies in the increase in supply into late June, the supply of commercial housing rose significantly, almost two weeks before the close of supply 700,000 square meters, beyond April, May over the same period three Daosi Cheng, but high turnover is difficult to have continuity, especially coming into the traditional off-season in July and August, and is currently experiencing a decline in the supply of signs, is expected to post volume difficult to reach highs. "

For the end of June, housing prices soared sales data, Dingzu Yu believes that "Japanese CD" appears, is mainly caused by individual factors, cost, marketing initiatives have played an important role. Developers existence before the semi-annual "rush in" mentality, with sales in May and June is not ideal, developers began to adjust prices.

CRIC, chief analyst at Dandan said, currently under the guise of "special room" and other forms of real estate a few discounts, round downward trend in the market has been quite obvious.

Chinese Bank Sues Government For Past Due Loan

Prior articles have mentioned some local governments have a small amount of overdue debt, but this is being mentioned as the possible first default of a local government funding vehicle, entities created by local governments to borrow from banks for investment projects.

Chinese bank sues local govt financing vehicle in rare public spat

A Chinese bank is suing a local government financing vehicle over a bad loan in a rare public display of a deepening rift between lenders and borrowers in China's murky $3 trillion local debt market.

The unusual step also highlights growing strains in the market confronted by slowing economic growth and a property sector that has started to cool off after decades of runaway expansion.

Qilu Bank, based in the city of Jinan in the coastal province of Shandong, announced in its 2013 annual report -- published online in Chinese and English -- that it was suing a local government financing vehicle (LGFV) over unpaid debt.

The bank said the Urban Construction and Comprehensive Development Company of Licheng District failed to make payments on a 35.4 million yuan ($5.71 million) outstanding loan, along with 6.1 million yuan in unpaid interest.

"To the best of our knowledge, this is the first official disclosure of a LGFV default on a bank loan," wrote Nomura analysts in a research note distributed to clients on Monday.

......Until recently banks have been willing to roll over LGFVs' debts indefinitely, avoiding write-downs and keeping reported non-performing loan (NPL) ratios at levels well below what analysts considered realistic -- a strategy analysts say worked fine so long as China maintained double-digit economic growth.

Chinese banking sources agreed that while de-facto defaults by LGFVs are common, the public nature of the disclosure was unusual given the fraternal relationship between the two entities. Both are headquartered in Jinan, and according to the Qilu report the Licheng District LGFV is one of its shareholders, holding 0.08 percent of its shares.

"LGFV defaults are to be expected and are inevitable," said a loan officer at a Shanghai-based Chinese bank, who spoke on condition of anonymity, but said in most cases the defaults were hidden from public view using accounting methods.

However, pressured by regulators to clean up their books, banks have grown less willing to roll over the loans and more sceptical about local governments' readiness to bail out failed their financing arms.

A senior bond trader at a major Chinese state-owned bank in Shanghai noted that while investors still largely considered debt issued by provincial-level financing vehicles to be effectively guaranteed, that no longer held true for lower level entities.

Some loans are backed by land sales as well and those sales aren't going so well lately.

From the annual report, page 13 of this PDF: 齐鲁银行股份有限公司 2013 年年报摘要

Jinan City Urban Construction and Development Company, the number of shares 1,896,654 shares, 0.08% stake. At the end of 2013, the corporate loan balance was ￥35.07 million yuan, the overdue interest owed is 6,133,247.27 yuan, loan classified as doubtful, has litigation.

First Tier Cities Sees Mortgages Back to 15% Discounts

Among 23 hot spot cities tracked, as of June 23, 9 had mortgage discounts. Beijing and Shanghai were 15% off the benchmark rate; Guangzhou and Hangzhou 10% off; Shenzhen, Tianjin and three other cities saw 5% off. The rest of the cities are at benchmark or above.

Even though discounts are offered, credit standards are up. Shanghai Minsheng Bank requires customers to have average assets of ￥1 to ￥3 million yuan to receive a 5% discount; ￥3 to ￥5 million to receive a 10% discount; ￥5 million and up to receive a 15% discount.

The big four banks increased their mortgage loan quotas in June and sped up mortgage processing.
一线城市房贷利率松动 个别银行再现8.5折利率

Hebei Rural Cooperatives Go Bust

Hebei's economy is experiencing a serious slowdown due to the weakness in heavy industry, particularly steel. Rural cooperatives pay up to 5 times the interest rates that banks pay. They are supposed to help develop the agricultural economy, but there's no way they're doing that at 16% interest. Furthermore, the rural cooperatives employed agents to drum up deposits and many urban residents also deposited money. A big cooperative went down at the end of March in Handan. Now the bosses of other cooperatives have fled (the other type of bank run) and the whereabouts of the depositors money is unknown. A wild guess: they invested it in real estate, either directly or through high interest (20% and up) loans to developers.

One local described the situation this way: when the big rural cooperative in Handan went down in April (see Handan Farm Cooperative Goes Bust; 100,000 Rural Households Invested Over ￥140 million; Boss Has Fled) that was the aircraft carrier going down. With the carrier sunk, it's hard for the smaller boats to escape. Especially when the smaller cooperatives have invested in the larger cooperative.

河北多家农村合作社“跑路”村民称利息是银行5倍

In April this year, according to the "Morning News" and other media reports, Handan County wide Weiguang vegetable cooperatives Legal running, swept away more than 140 million yuan of funds. Subsequently, Shandong Linqing Dongxu vegetable cooperatives foot event occurred, involving capital of more than 2000 million.

　　This is just the tip of the iceberg. Recently, the "Daily Economic News" reporter learned that the investigation in Hebei Guantao, gaoyi, linzhang other places, these counties this year are co-owners Paolu phenomenon. Linzhang Junhong mushroom cooperatives appeared on foot, the 30 million yuan of funds can not be cashed; gaoyi Hongyun planting cooperatives appeared on foot, swept capital of 14 million yuan.

　　Also Handan, Quang Binh cooperatives occurred after foot event hall 陶正信 cooperatives boss lost contact, and 124 million yuan of funds can not be cashed, and trigger other local cooperatives closed tide appeared most cooperative funds were unable to extract the phenomenon. Local residents said: "is believed to be the carrier, the aircraft carrier sunk boat were spared."

　　These cooperatives appear Paolu common feature is the presence of deposit-taking behavior are behind on foot phenomenon of refraction is the lack of cooperative systems and regulation.

　　Co-owner of the frequency "lost contact" /

　　May, the North China Plain wheat harvest season, farmers mown wheat ready for planting corn, seeds and fertilizers are in need of money, take money Rural appear peak, but many farmers found that they could not withdraw money cooperatives exist, the legal representative also missing.

　　Liu Zhuang located Guantao County, less than 10 miles from the county road, there are hundreds of families are believed members of cooperatives. Villagers said Liu Yan Gang, originally wanted harvester update, the existence of cooperatives money but they can not be extracted. Then, "the president lost contact", "co-foot" message in the surrounding Guantao spread.

　　Liu Yan Gang Show took on a positive letter cooperative capital stock certificate: Share Capital 10,000 shares of No. 622, shares time is October 2, 2013; booking bonus is 18%, for a period of one year.

　　"Although not yet expired, but the constitution of a cooperative agreement, when money can be withdrawn, but the interest to be low." Said Liu Yan Gang, to cooperatives to save money, no contract, only capital stock certificates, specific work by the village of agency staff completed.

　　Masanobu cooperatives stands for "Hebei Museum Taozheng Xin agricultural marketing service cooperatives' legal representative Cuihuan Ting. Headquarters are located in the county cooperatives letter No. 63 Chinese New Street, but the "Daily Economic News" reporter on the scene saw two words is the letter written cooperative stores closed the door, next to belong 崔焕亭 of Fidelity Investments also closed the door .

　　Masanobu local rural cooperatives to conduct business there for three years, from last year, more and more villagers will deposit the money into cooperatives. According to incomplete statistics, the foot incident resulted in more than 500 million yuan of funds can not be cashed.

　　Hebei Linzhang, local cooperatives Junhong leading mushroom cooperatives also had legal foot. Linzhang an official, chairman Guo Junjie swept capital of 30 million yuan. Public information, the cooperatives by Chinese Rural Cooperative Construction Management approved the establishment of the center.

　　Why give money to the cooperative? With guide villager Wang Teng first argument is fairly representative: "You can do free cable TV, you can also get free wheat seed or corn seed, saved ten thousand acre of land free of charge to the seeds." The most important thing is more or cooperatives rates. Wang Teng first said: "If my (ten thousand) money in the bank just over 300 dollars a year, but on cooperatives, 1,600 dollars a year, the equivalent of an acre of wheat." Calculated according to this argument, cooperatives to Interest is almost five times the bank.

　　The true identity of agency staff /

　　In Handan area, there are a lot of agency staff, they are to contact the cooperative ties between farmers and villagers access to services completed by the agency staff.

　　Many agents who also co-own customers. WANG Xian village agency staff with printed guide introduced himself saved 50,000 yuan, 10,000 yuan if you do a deposit of $ 360 can get commission.

According to him, there were agents who are believed more than 180 cooperatives active in every corner of the countryside. Daming County in Hebei, Qiuxian, Feixiang even some counties in Shandong have agents who are believed active agent point, Absorbing some village scale up to thousands of yuan.

　　According to general understanding, it is because of the high interest rates coupled with the temptation of agency staff lobbying money will be credited to the farmer cooperatives. But the "Daily Economic News" reporter learned that the investigation, it is not so simple.

　　April of this year, Gao Yi County Hongyun planting cooperatives boss running, involving capital of 14 million yuan. Among them, the Temple family owned village involving 1.95 million yuan, 2.9 million yuan Ma village, the villagers said, "devastated" when referring to the matter.

　　Reporters from Hongyun planting cooperatives see the receipts, the annual rate of return in 2013 was only 4.5% deposit. Chuang Ma Temple, the book division, said the villagers, agency staff said there is no risk of deposit, cooperatives have registered in the Trade and Industry Bureau, the staff has the record with the county government support, but regulators have Banking Bureau.
　　
Branch and other horse books villagers assured there is an important reason to save money, these agents who have a "credit union people."

　　In many rural areas of Hebei, in the past there has been a member of the agency system, each village an agency staff. However, with the reform of Hebei credit unions, financial services and gradually withdraw from the country. Gaoyi County Banking Bureau responsible person in the "Daily Economic News" reporter, said: "Those agents who are not loan officers, they may have some relationship with the bank, but then all of a sudden reforms laid off, the agency and bank staff no relationship. "
　　
Baixiang County farmer entrepreneur tied Lau said that agency staff system is easy to illiterate villagers, if farmers need to deposit the money directly to the agency staff, and agency staff time to collect the money as long as say the line. "According to the Associated Press in 2006, Hebei Province, documentation requirements, gaoyi County revoked the agent stations, but this group has always existed."
　
　Reporters learned that, like a horse village Renjing Shen, Temple Mayu Chang Chuang are past members of the Credit Union agency. In addition a number of agents who have Guantao bank credit experience. In the eyes of the villagers, the agency staff has always been a link between farmers and financial linkages. "No credit union near the teller to the county but also queuing delay farm."
　　
After exiting the rural credit cooperatives in the market, there will be money after the financial needs of farmers, cooperatives bring it to market, slightly higher than bank interest rates as long as farmers are willing to deposit money into cooperatives.

　　For agency staff on behalf of farmers to save money business, these sources said the Banking Bureau, agency staff in rural areas is more like a salesman, anyone can do, for example, introduce you to the bank deposits, some banks give you a referral fee, which is marketing costs, This is permitted.
　　
Everywhere cooperatives /
　
　Cooperative development of China's early, but really the rapid development in the new cooperative law enacted in 2006, the implementation of the cooperative system of registration, registration of charge. Reporters learned that in many, this operation becomes extremely simple, farmers only need to bring your ID card to the local industrial and commercial bureau on the line.
　　
Guantao County Business Council to the "Daily Economic News" data is: Guantao officially registered cooperatives with more than 160. Throughout the Handan City, various farmers' cooperatives have registered thousands of much.

　　As the villagers mutual aid cooperative economic organizations, serving as a farmer, because farmers need to raise funds to buy fertilizers, pesticides, mutual funds function began to appear.

　　Long-term mutual funds concerned community experts Jiang Bolin believes that the development of cooperatives to mutual funds is inevitable, "co-operatives is not simply to help farmers buy buy seeds, fertilizer, capital of farmers cooperatives is to production, distribution, supply and consumption together, to foster agricultural the city, to support agriculture, integrated rural development. "

　　But in reality, the development of mutual funds deviate from the expected track club.

　　In Guantao County, a number of agency staff holding documents to prove the legitimacy to carry out co-deposit business. Reporters saw the document by the CBRC and the Ministry of Agriculture in 2009 jointly issued "on the good work of Farmer Cooperatives financial services advice," Handan City have also introduced the relevant documents.

　　Joint paper referred to encourage qualified farmer cooperatives development of credit cooperation. "Select the formation of farmer cooperatives in rural areas on the basis of the pilot union's funds, under the supervision of the banking regulatory agency, the real stake in accomplishing voluntary membership, democratic management, service members for the purpose of seeking membership interests of cooperative financial organizations."

　　In the specification of these documents, the cooperative began with the rapid development of financial nature in the Hebei region, like faith, Weiguang such cooperatives in Handan everywhere, the name of tricks, but much the same way: the establishment of co-operatives to high rebates as bait, a large number of farmers to absorb funds' shares. "

　　In Handan area, not just farmers, including deposits of urban residents also joined the ranks. In Guantao, customers are believed cooperatives have engaged drivers, civil servants, teachers and other professions.

　　In the open rental Guantao Master Wang told reporters that he himself saved thousands of dollars to a positive letter. "Are believed to be the key support of cooperatives, cooperative Masanobu hardly unknown."

　　Different from ordinary registered cooperatives, these cooperatives registered capital of more Handan, in millions of dollars more.

　　"Daily Economic News" reporter learned that the query registration documents, museum Taozheng Xin cooperatives registered capital of 300 million yuan, registered time is February 14, 2011; operating range is required for members of the procurement and supply organization of production, the organization acquired selling members products; introduce members required advanced technology. Gaoyi Hongyun food grain cultivation cooperatives registered capital of 5 million yuan, the legal representative of Raymond Cheung, operating range of planting, tissue procurement, acquisition, sale of agricultural products and the introduction of new technologies and new varieties.

　　Reporters noted that the registration information did not mention storage class business. In this regard, Trade and Industry Bureau said that cooperatives to carry out financial business is illegal. However, according to co-regulation, members of the cooperative funding to carry out mutual funds is not illegal.
　　Is the case, the cooperative had a huge room for maneuver.

　　Secretary for Trade and Industry Bureau Guantao surnamed Wang told the "Daily Economic News" reporter, said, "members of the cooperatives to attract funds, the cooperative law is possible, and who said they would not deposit, and now co-operatives without inspection Therefore, the function is hidden funds, non-trouble will come to say. "

　　Hebei Guantao, gaoyi other counties, there are still a lot of streets for business cooperatives, these cooperatives and banks similar to capital stock and settlement into the hall there is a window. Guantao formosa cooperative staff that take deposits interest is 16%.

　　Although these cooperatives are open to the public storage business, but gaoyi County Banking Bureau, responsible person, if go to these cooperatives, they do not say they are illegal fund-raising, they will say that it is the members also return materials used for the purchase of fertilizer funds "They have legitimacy."
　　Type of financial operation highlights the regulatory vacuum /

　　In fact, the reporter learned that the cooperatives are now in the regulatory vacuum. Although the cooperative's business license issued by the Trade and Industry Bureau, but no regulatory responsibility. Wang, deputy director of the above in the "Daily Economic News" reporter, said that cooperatives need only register, Guantao county and national registration as cooperatives without inspection, specific regulation is COAG thing.

　　June 23, reporter to interview Guantao County Farmers Working Committee, Agriculture Committee responsible person, cooperatives specific piece of work by the Agricultural Association to be responsible. Reporters then to farm co-op, but the agricultural association office staff said there was no co-op work in this area, "we NACF total of only four people, hundreds of cooperatives how regulators can get through."

　　The office staff also revealed that before the promulgation of the law on cooperatives, agricultural co-supervision before, but after the promulgation of change registered by the Trade and Industry Bureau, "but also to regulatory inquiries cooperatives specific address."

　　Handan City Agriculture Committee also answer specific work by the Agricultural Association is responsible for co-operatives. Handan City Farmers Co officials Jinghai Feng told the "Daily Economic News" reporter, said NACF is a mass organization of cooperatives comprehensive guidance services, primarily to guide the healthy development of cooperation, "but we do not have administrative authority . "

　　Since the launch of the cooperative financial services, the financial sector should have regulatory responsibilities. However, Gao Yi County Banking Bureau expressly Banking Board to discipline cooperatives, there will be financial licenses Banking Bureau pipe. "For example, the real estate market risk, notify the CBRC to banks, but not under notice to cooperatives. Cooperatives are not our approval, how?"

　　Of cooperatives Hebei probably similar in unsupervised state. Baoding, a co-president, told reporters that funds are raised to 300 yuan, a lot of the higher authorities, but who never managed before.

　　Cooperative funds are gone? /

　　Typically, members of the cooperative funds primarily for their own development. Jinghai Feng said the club's funds like mutual funds is limited to the interior, limited to the development of related industries. "In principle no deposit-taking cooperatives suck stocks, shares may be land, labor shares, funds are limited to the interior."

　　Jiang Bolin believes that more than 18% of the normal market interest margins, especially in the agricultural sector. "Society is also the principle of mutual funds deposits from members, loans lent members, rather than the funds together to engage in the project, the project risk is now doing great, and if that fails, the entire collapse of the cooperatives on."

　　Li Changping agriculture experts believe that some cooperatives are now operating across the county, not regulation can not prevent risks. "I advocate and support the development of both pension priority functions village built-financial, internal funds financial cooperatives can only run in the village, a village only a co-op, and the whole village, against any form of cooperation and mutual assistance in rural finance."

　　Reporters learned that, like most cooperatives are in Handan County, registered capital, the formation of "Head Office - Branch - agent point" three-tier system, the flow of agency business throughout the county, and even counties interprovincial operations, primary-level transmission .

　　A local well-known in this business insider said, Handan cooperatives such operations is the earliest, Hebei cooperatives elsewhere in Hebei Handan many people do, or copy mode. Hongyun cooperatives is the legal representative of Handan Raymond Cheung Man.

　　But most of the cooperatives operating conditions are bad, like Quang Binh Weiguang vegetable cooperatives grow vegetables less than a year, spend the land, the construction of greenhouses and other costs of more than 30 million yuan, basically lose everything. The Junhong cooperatives mushroom business has been a lack of funding, in 2013 publicly reported that the agricultural cooperatives to achieve wealth through mutual funds gorgeous transformation.

　　As funding for these cooperatives are gone? Local spread of multiple versions, cooperative funds for stocks, futures speculation, investment in mining, real estate and so on. There Handan insider, the real estate downturn, the funding strand breaks, cooperative funds can not be removed.

　　"Daily Economic News" reporter learned that, Masanobu cooperatives and local "Squeak shopping" relevant, Masanobu after running, this shopping plaza is also closed. Guantao Public Security Bureau insiders also confirmed that there had been looting Squeak phenomenon.

　　Some funds may flow directly into the pockets of the owners of cooperatives. Linzhang a government official said, before Junhong cooperatives running, Guo Junjie three consecutive withdraw money in the bank. "These farmers cooperatives pit dead, there is no regulation according to which the chaos in the financial sector."