Guangzhou Loosens Buying Restrictions, Prices Jump 30%, Do You Believe It?

So says the headline of this article: 广东限价限签松绑致楼价飙升30%以上 你信吗？ Government data shows transactions down in June, but prices up 2.7% mom to a new high, and up 30.3% yoy. According to the article, industry insiders don't trust the government data and believe prices are down about 15%.

The article concludes with some discussion of the September/October outlook—as noted here, this period now looms large in the minds of everyone in residential real estate. If volume doesn't increase or at least bottom out during the summer, a big wave of price cuts will be needed to move property.

Guangzhou in June hit a record high price of net signed

Industry analysts said the Guangzhou housing prices drop 15 percent in whole or in

■ Express reporter Chen Qi

A data center to the latest statistics, the city of Guangzhou in June 5780 net signed first-hand residential units, the average price 16,820 yuan / square meter, up infer decline in value, trading volume fell 20.4 percent year on year, while the average price has surged 30.3%. Express reporter learned that the first six months of this year, the Guangzhou city's primary residential net signed 33,020 units, fell 31 percent year on year, the average price 14,978 yuan / square meter, up 9.1 percent year on year. However, industry insiders believe that the official website to check the data affected by many factors leading to distortion, Guangzhou property prices actually fell, and this year's decline may be as high as 15%.

Price

Prices rose 30.3 percent year on year highs

Prices, the city's primary residential average price of net signed up 16,820 yuan / square meter, a new high, up by 2.7 percent, rising 30.3 percent year on year it is.

June highest average price of 44,537 yuan, Tianhe region / sq m, in addition Yuexiu [ Introduction News ] area of 38,967 yuan / square meter, followed by the city's total price reached 30,000 yuan two regions / m mark. In addition to the peripheral area of Huadu and Conghua price is not broken million others were broken million, the highest for Panyu, reached 16,019 yuan / square meter.

This year, Guangzhou has repeatedly been on the real estate control policy fine-tuning, the standard limit is a substantial increase in some areas, while the limit for high disk check policy has also been relaxed. Resulting in Tianhe and Yuexiu average highs.

No limit on the implementation of the purchase of Zengcheng, Conghua two places, from the beginning of May, the limit line is relaxed, Conghua receive the latest real estate pre-license limit standard has been raised to nearly yuan / square meter, while the developer agreed Zengcheng cancel the two contracts, the actual sales price.

Data Center statistics show that the average price of the top ten real estate network signed 133 sets of units, sea Huacheng Bay [ News Price apartment Review ] push new, single disc is net signed 112 sets, the average price of 47,438 yuan / square meter, the highest average price is Xinhui Overseas Chinese Yue Taiwan [ News Price apartment review ] for 117,422 yuan / square meter, tenth as high as 45,210 yuan average price / square meter, the display panel high net signed more smoothly.

Meanwhile, last year due to the government to further curb rising housing data, the introduction of restrictions on sale, limit, overweight administrative measures to limit sign, making the price decline in June last year, resulting in slightly lower base year.

Transaction

Net signed up fell 20.4% to 5,780 units

According to statistics sunshine house edge data show that in June of net signed Guangzhou 5780 primary residential units, a slight decrease of 0.97% in May, fell 20.4 percent year on year, total sales area of ​​732,000 square meters.

Under the "May Day" holiday boost, REF increase the preferential part of the sale of new goods also pushed down prices, overall market volume rebounded. Into June, more than the price of real estate is almost nearing completion, turnover has decreased, but the decrease was not significant. However, compared with June last year, net signed copy to drop 20.4 percent year on year, indicating that the market is still unable to return to last year's level.

In the district, due to a number of projects previously Panyu prices, effectively promoting the deal, Panyu is the only region over thousands of sets mark, reaching 1305 units, increasing urban and signed 863 sets, ranking second in the peripheral region of the suburbs is still the main contract.

Centre Region VI 2121 total net signed sets, accounting for 36.7% of the city's net signed copy of the gradual relaxation of the limit, the network maintained in the central region to sign a good level, a new boost in Huangpu District Luogang the outskirts of the main push cargo Area , the network signed 731 sets, is the center of the largest area of ​​six districts.

Outlook forecast

Guangzhou property prices rise or fall by 15% by the end of

"Guangzhou property prices to fall 15 percent this year as a whole!" Yesterday, CRIC Information Group will refrain estate Guangzhou ratings were lowered, indicating the property market is expected to pessimism. The group's chief analyst, said the Guangzhou area Yong-Guang Liang, May, June, Guangzhou less than one tenth the price of real estate, property prices are still down space, the end to bottom. In policy terms, as a first-tier cities of Guangzhou untied the short term will not purchase, mortgage policies Not seen signs of relaxation.

Opening day of the four percent market heat rate is not high

CRIC Guangzhou agency in May, June monitor 25 items appear to Guangzhou price behavior, accounting for sale of real estate in Guangzhou in less than a tenth, and many projects in a small amount of special units to cut prices to attract attention, while the real markdowns only about 12 projects, most visible real estate in Guangzhou price appears meaningful number is still small, the developer of sincerity is still insufficient.

By monitoring Guangzhou in May, June 20th opening key projects, in terms of the new push, push the sales potential of new projects launched in 4250 sets, while on sale the same day as the 1785 transaction sets, items of average to 42%. Frequent comparison with last year's "Day CD" phenomenon of the past two months to only 40% less than market heat. From a regional perspective, Panyu District to melt relatively good, because the situation in Panyu District, appeared to push a sale of real estate are more attracted many home buyers. Away the worst area of ​​Nansha District, not the amount of new push, and the price is high, turnover more depressed.

According to CRIC Rate 288 index analysis, in June 2014, Guangzhou Yishoufang price index for 1199.1 points, up by 3.5 points, up 0.29 percent, rose 9.12 percent year on year increase continuously narrowed since 2014. Guangzhou continuous increase in price index narrowed by the Guangzhou property market because of the recent price surge affected across the country, buyers wait and see mood appears mentality, and most of the price of the project developers lack of sincerity, the two sides presented stalemate.

Refrain from the sale of the project to be downgraded

"This year, the overall decline in property prices in Guangzhou, or about 15%." Grams and chief analyst at the Swiss Canton Regional Yong-Guang Liang believes that this year will go into the bottom of the Guangzhou property prices at the end, then will rebound continues to hover around the bottom half. He also stressed that the trend will depend on the specific market, " Golden September and Silver October , "the market performance.

It is reported that Guangzhou agencies have CRIC Guangzhou 339 items on sale rating adjustment period due to changes in the larger market, which downgraded 97 projects, accounting for 28.61% of all rated items. Among them, the downgrade is the largest real estate Huadu District, Huadu District project because most prices remain strong, did not practice with the market direction, and that much good Huadu District recently, most of the real estate turnover has put slow.

■ Expert opinion

Golden September and Silver October prices slightly lower than in the first half for the opportunity to ship

Outlook for the property market in the second half trends, Wu Rong, director of the super market to bank pointed out that the Guangzhou property market in the first half of volume shrinkage, stable prices, and some amount of real estate prices go effective, but the moment has not yet formed price surges. Is expected in the second half will not be much change in the policy environment, tight monetary policy is expected, due to the relatively quiet first half of the property market, developers strongly urge the second half of the stock is expected to seize the "golden nine silver ten" promotional opportunity, then the market will relatively warm, but the volume is difficult to substantially finished.

In this context, the developer will launch a number of measures to stimulate the turnover of various marketing activities will occur more turnover will be more concentrated in large real estate developer's their strength, more flexible forms of promotion, the majority of small developers Select the holding plate slowly sales, the largest mid-sized strategic variables. Therefore, the overall price growth slowed slightly lower than the overall level of the price level in the first half.

For developers in the second half trends, Zou Qin, director of sales to the line, "said the first half of residential projects volume decline, some developers markdowns negative impact on the surrounding area sector increases, we follow the trend of accelerated price move. the second half of the developers playing the price war is inevitable, some developers funding chain problems, but do not rule out the possibility of taking the amount of flesh.