China real estate dominates the economy: official
About 60% of China's manufacturing and financing activities are related to the property sector, China's state media quoted a senior government economist as saying Monday.
China property chart du jour (yes, another one)
[Soc Gen] In summary, we think that real estate investment growth will continue to trend lower, likely to the level of 5% yoy (from 12.5% in June), a level last seen during the 2009 downturn. The IMF once estimated that a 1% decline in China’s real estate investment would shave about 0.1% off China’s real GDP within the first year. And so a 7.5ppt deceleration in real estate investment growth would drag down GDP growth by about 0.75ppt.That is more optimistic than the Shenyin Wanguo analyst who predicted GDP would slip to 6.6% growth if real estate investment fell below 14% in 2014. A 0.75% deceleration in GDP growth stemming from a 7.5% drop in real estate investment is on the optimistic side.
聂梅生:楼市最低迷时期已过 (Nie Meisheng: The real estate bottom has passed) Nie Meisheng is the founder of the China Real Estate Chamber of Commerce. She sees prices stabilizing here. If she's right, that is good news for China's real estate sector and the economy. There's some evidence for that in still solid sales figures in some areas, and the national figure did begin ticking up in June (third chart below).
Now for some data from the NBS: June real estate investment figures. These are cumulative, yoy growth rates.
Table 1 2014 Year 1-6 month national real estate development and sales
Index | The absolute amount | Growth ( % ) |
Real Estate Investment (100M) | 42019 | 14.1 |
Of which: Residential | 28689 | 13.7 |
Office | 2394 | 19.0 |
Commercial space business | 6172 | 23.2 |
Housing construction area (10,000 square meters) | 611406 | 11.3 |
Of which: Residential | 437195 | 8.3 |
Office | 24739 | 23.3 |
Commercial space business | 77445 | 18.5 |
New housing construction area (10,000 square meters) | 80126 | -16.4 |
Of which: Residential | 56674 | -19.8 |
Office | 3098 | 3.2 |
Commercial space business | 10732 | -8.9 |
Land acquisition area (10,000 square meters) | 14807 | -5.8 |
Land transaction price ($ billion) | 4031 | 9.0 |
Housing area (10,000 square meters) | 38215 | 8.1 |
Of which: Residential | 29168 | 6.3 |
Office | 980 | 14.0 |
Commercial space business | 4353 | 7.2 |
Real estate sales area (10,000 square meters) | 48365 | -6.0 |
Of which: Residential | 42487 | -7.8 |
Office | 1090 | -2.8 |
Commercial space business | 3300 | 7.7 |
Commercial sales ($ billion) | 31133 | -6.7 |
Of which: Residential | 25632 | -9.2 |
Office | 1331 | -12.1 |
Commercial space business | 3373 | 9.8 |
Housing for sale (10 000 sq.m) | 54428 | 24.5 |
Of which: Residential | 35917 | 25.0 |
Office | 2135 | 20.6 |
Commercial space business | 10355 | 23.4 |
Real estate development enterprise funds available ($ billion) | 58913 | 3.0 |
Of which: domestic loans | 11293 | 14.1 |
Use of foreign capital | 186 | -20.6 |
Self-financing | 23810 | 10.1 |
Other funds | 23624 | -7.2 |
Of which: deposit and advance payment | 14252 | -9.3 |
Individual mortgage loans | 6512 | -3.7 |
Table 2 2014 Jan-Jun East-Central-West RE Development Investment
Land area | Investment (100 million) | An increase ( % ) | ||
Residential | Residential | |||
Total national | 42019 | 28689 | 14.1 | 13.7 |
Eastern Region | 24223 | 16382 | 14.6 | 14.1 |
Central Region | 8558 | 6070 | 11.9 | 13.7 |
Western Region | 9237 | 6237 | 14.8 | 12.8 |
Table 3 2014 Jan-Jun East-Central West RE Sales
Area | Real estate sales | Commercial RE sales | ||
Absolute (10,000 square meters) | An increase ( % ) | Absolute (100 million) | An increase ( % ) | |
Total national | 48365 | -6.0 | 31133 | -6.7 |
Eastern Region | 22630 | -13.3 | 18051 | -14.0 |
Central Region | 12987 | 1.8 | 6511 | 5.7 |
Western Region | 12747 | 1.4 | 6571 | 5.5 |
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