End of Buying Restrictions Shows Spec Demand is Gone

Here is what I've said many times about buying restrictions:
...easing buying restrictions is a bad policy because it won't work. It allows speculators and investors to buy up homes, but the trend now is for investors and speculators to sell homes. It may help the big investors who need to offload 100 homes to another big investor, but speculation has died down considerably. In cities that have eased policy, they have made it easier for home buyers to obtain residency. Those cities have made home buying more attractive.

I'm not ready to declare total victory yet because September and October are the big sales periods, but.....报告称内地多城楼市取消限购后成交量仍下跌 (After Many Cities Cancel Buying Restrictions, Sales Still Fall)

The article says that Hangzhou, Jinan and Nanning have seen some quick results following the cancellation of buying restrictions, but most cities have seen no impact. Jinan has seen area sold triple two weeks after easing restrictions, while Nanning average weekly sales are up 27% since it unofficially eased 11 weeks ago. However, sales are down from the 170,000 sqm sales peak in the first week to about 100,000 sqm per week. Hangzhou and Wenzhou saw huge weekly sales spikes recently (see here and here), but that growth also may fade quickly.

Regarding Nanning, it is one of the cities that eased restrictions: Nanning Fires First Rescue Shot

Back to the latest article, Changchun and Wuhuan have seen small sales bumps of 5% following the easing of buying restrictions. Tianjin and Xiamen have seen no increase in sales. Nanchang and Wuxi have seen sales continue to fall. Source: .报告称内地多城楼市取消限购后成交量仍下跌

Elsewhere: Qingdao has eased restrictions on homes 144 sqm and larger. (青岛明日起有条件放松限购 市区144平米以上将不限购)

Chinese buyers now have a "wait-and-see" attitude. Even if the cancellation of buying restrictions could have an impact, the big sales period is September and October. Buyers may wait until then, when price discounts are expected to be bountiful and many new developments will enter the market. Discounts will be guaranteed if sales don't pick up in August as well because it will be developers last shot at big sales in 2014.

For myself, I'm looking at puts on SFUN.

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