2011-11-23

Doom goes viral; time to start getting optimistic

Left wing Mother Jones blogger Kevin Drum: How Deleveraging in Europe Might Doom the U.S. Right wing American Conservative blogger Rod Dreher:Get guns & gold; Judgment Day coming

1931 was the tragic year because 1931 was the year people realized it was a depression. Until then, they thought it was a big recession. 2012 will be the tragic year of this crisis (or maybe 2011, depends on the speed of events in Europe).

There will be ways to profit on the short side, but I'm becoming optimistic. I haven't done as much individual stock research these past two years because I was waiting for good prices. I think now is the time to start looking for companies because the buying opportunities are coming. If you were afraid in 2008, 2012 may be much worse. To be a successful contrarian, you need to eliminate emotion or be emotionally contrarian: be greedy when others are fearful. Social mood is always a mix between positive and negative, and individually we can be similar. I'm not bullish here, but in my mind, the optimism bar is ticking up from here. Chance favors the prepared mind.

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