2011-11-20

Le Pen correctly reads social mood; does her rise foreshadow a third party in America?

Marine Le Pen is getting more attention these days. It's not because of any new position she holds, but because her position on the euro is becoming more mainstream (or inevitable). She wants France out of the euro and to restore the country's national sovereignty, including an exit from NATO.

Le Pen calls for France to quit euro

The first round of voting is in May. Can Marine Le Pen Win in France?
Le Pen is convinced that we have reached a tipping point. Just as the communist world collapsed, so will the so-called globalized world, she believes. “The future belongs to nations,” she says, at the risk of sounding resolutely anachronistic. “I went to Lampedusa in Sicily a few months ago; the EU cannot stop the flow of immigration coming from Tunisia and Libya. This will soon prove to everyone that only bilateral relations can work. The EU is a fat jellyfish. Can you tell me, really, do you think Latvia is interested in France’s and Italy’s immigration problems?” She recently, and rather astutely, argued in the Daily Telegraph that she was against immigration but in favor of diversity, saying, “I want Malians to remain Malians and defend the language and identity of Mali, Americans to stay Americans, the Chinese, Chinese and the French, French.”
Whether she subscribes to socionomics or not, her description of the situation is exactly on target. Social mood is moving in her favor politically. Also, for the bigger picture, globalization, while seen as an Anglo-American capitalist phenomena, is also an international socialist one, in fact politically it is more so because the institutions are generally socialist in nature. If you are looking at the very big picture, you will the trend of left-wing parties in Europe becoming more nationalist and/or right-wing parties espousing socialist policies, such as the SPD member Sarrazin in Germany or the Finns in Finland. If you stick to looking at the right-left divide between political parties, you will miss that the body politic is shifting to the right. To wit:
Le Pen recently declared on French television that if she were elected, she would partly and temporarily nationalize French banks; she believes their exposure to Greek debt has been too destabilizing. She would also ring-fence retail and commercial banking from speculative and highly risky financial banking. The other guest on the show, a socialist MP, could only discreetly agree.
As for the euro, she would negotiate its end. “The euro will collapse; it’s inevitable,” she tells me. “We just want to anticipate its crash, to prepare ourselves. We don’t want to sacrifice the people in order to save the euro. First, we need to devalue the euro, in order to get some fresh air. We would then plan the exit from the eurozone, but in agreement with our European partners.” As time goes by and the euro crisis deepens, her words sound more and more prescient. And while Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel regularly fail to quell the fears of market Cassandras, Marine Le Pen is making the rounds of French talk-shows, smiling like a Cheshire cat, simply saying, “We won’t even need to kill it; the euro will die of natural causes.”
This is a major issue and she has the most common sense position of any candidate.

Le Pen will attract left-wing voters who have turned on globalization. Her main support is right-wing, which means Sarkozy is her chief rival in the first round of voting. The wildcard here is the economy and a possible bailout. If things continue relatively smoothly for the next 6 months (and yes, I consider the current market and economic activity smooth compared to what may happen in 2012), she probably won't win. But if the decline in social mood accelerates in 2012, sends markets tumbling and leads to some type of bailout or even larger power grab by the EU government, then she could find herself headed into the run-off.

Marine Le Pen is very different from Ron Paul in the United States because France and the U.S. have different cultures, but their rise and position in the race is very similar. There's been speculation that Paul could run on a third-party ticket next year and much of the right has focused on this because they believe it would hand victory to Obama. However, if the GOP were to pick Romney and the negative 2012 economic scenario plays out, Ron Paul could turn it into a three way race because he is an anti-war candidate. If he pulls 10% from Obama and added 10% from disgruntled Tea partiers, Ron Paul would be looking at near 30% support.

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