2012-03-22

Coup rumors swirling in Western press; in China not so much

The Western press is eating up coup rumors, but what's happening is a less than smooth leadership change. Western media outlets are running with the story, but there's no supporting evidence in China and the rumors haven't spread. Instead, where there is some rumored discussions, it is over the fate of Bo ally Zhou Yongkang.
Inside the Ring: Beijing coup rumors

Another posting quoted internal sources as saying senior Communist Party leaders are divided over the ouster of Mr. Bo. The divide was said to pit Prime Minister Wen Jiabao and against party security forces and Minister of Public Security Zhou Yongkang.

Late Wednesday, another alarming indicator came when Beijing authorities ordered all levels of public-security and internal-security forces under Mr. Zhou to conduct nationwide study sessions, although Mr. Zhou’s name was not on the order - a sign his future may be in doubt.

Additional references on Chinese social media included vague mention of high-level party political struggles and related police activity in Beijing.

One posting referred to a mysterious atmosphere in Beijing and a reported shooting Tuesday night. The posting was quickly censored by authorities.
Here's the Chinese news on the study sessions, which will be conducted in every province, city and county: 中央政法委将集中培训各地3300名政法委书记 (Central Political and Law Commission will focus on training all 3300 Politics and Law Committees). Google translation:
The first training will be held in Beijing next week

Learned from the Central Political and Law Commission in the first half of this year, the country will place province, city and county three Party Politics and Law Committee secretary of the Central Political and Law Commission for centralized training, in-depth study and implement the scientific development concept and the "two sessions", the National Political Work Conference, further enhancing the political awareness of Politics and Law Committee secretary, and overall awareness, sense of responsibility, legal awareness and honesty and awareness, improve their level of competence of the leadership, management, political and legal work. The first training will be held in Beijing next week.

Responsible person of the Central Political and Law Commission the ranks guidance Room 21, said in an interview with reporters, the Central Political and Law Commission decided to focus on the training of local party committees Politics and Law Committee secretary, in-depth study and implement the scientific concept of development, promoting the need for the Rule of Law is to strengthen and innovation social management and further improve the comprehensive management work of the new situation under the political and legal needs, but also for the local party committee after the political and legal which has Committee Secretary adjustment changes the actual organized, Strengthening Local Party Politics and Law Committee the building of leading bodies and cadres, to promote the major initiatives of the scientific development of political and legal career.

With the continuous development of our economy and society, the test of political and legal work and law enforcement teams faced an increasingly grim, the increasing workload of the tasks undertaken, increasing demands of the masses. Especially in recent years, the central law enforcement authorities, further promote the resolution of social conflicts, social management innovation, fair and honest law enforcement three focus on ideology and operational capacity of the majority of police officers and men put a higher demand. Firm to build a political, operational proficiency, good style, and impartial enforcement of high-quality judicial ranks, is an important foundation for promoting the scientific development of the political and legal career. Politics and Law Committee secretary of the local Party committees at all levels is both implement central decisions and arrangements of political and legal work of the organizers, but also to promote the local law-enforcement work carried out in depth the commander, or political and legal construction of the contingent leader and leader, shoulder to political direction, maintaining social stability, to maintain fairness and justice, and safeguarding the interests of the people, to grasp the major political and legal construction of the contingent liability.

"Through learning and training, the focus on resolving the 'what, how dry' problems so that the local Party committees at all levels Politics and Law Committee secretary to thoroughly study and understand the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and State Council on Political comprehensive management work, to further deepen the comprehensive management work to the political and legal situation new understanding of the task to further deepen the understanding and innovative social management guiding ideology, basic principles and objectives and tasks, and further deepen the understanding of job responsibilities, accurately grasp the overall situation, dealing with complicated situations, in strict accordance with the law and do mass work. ability to co-ordinate planning political and legal work, and ability to coordinate to solve major problems, better shoulder of socialism with Chinese characteristics, builders, and defenders of the sacred mission to lead the majority of police officers and men. "the official further said.

According to reports, the week of the first training classes will be held in Beijing on March 26. The training will take special counseling, on-site teaching, exchange of experiences, watch feature films, a combination of group discussion, the focus on the situation and tasks facing the political and legal work to strengthen and innovate the public administration, local party committees Politics and Law Committee secretary's job responsibilities and capabilities quality to carry out teaching.

It is reported that the National Local Party Politics and Law Committee secretary of the large-scale centralized training from the end of April. By then, there will be three places of more than 3,300 provincial, city and county party committees Politics and Law Committee secretary to attend the training.
This is not the sign of a coup. Rather, it is a sign that there is some uneasiness about the leadership shakeup underway and this training session will calm nerves and get everyone on the same page. The coup rumors are just that, and even the Epoch Times reported that tank photos posted on Weibo were fakes.

It makes sense that Zhou Yongkang could see his power reduced or even be removed from office, since he was a big supporter of Bo Xilai, but there's no evidence of that yet, aside from the fact that his name wasn't on this training order.

What all of this does show is that Beijing's secrecy can sometimes backfire, but more importantly, that social mood is negative and almost no one is immune. Nearly everyone feels broader social mood to some degree because they interact with people. Even if the leaders of a nation are walled off from the public, they still interact with family and friends who have family and friends, etc. There's anxiety up and down the leadership chain in China because it is a reflection of social mood. People are concerned about the real estate market, their investments, the economy—even the price of gold is down. It is in the context of negative social mood that the political transition became a messy affair.

Looking farther back, it was peaking social mood in the mid-2000s that made leaders move away from reform and assert greater political control over the economy. When times are good, reforms can be delayed because people want to get along and compromise. It is the hard-nosed reformers who lose during this period. A one-to-one comparison of China and the United States is not possible due to differing political systems, but the surprising rise in support for Ron Paul is not dissimilar from the rising power of the reformers in Beijing and their political enemies also share similarities.

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