2012-03-26

Hong Kong election the closest since the Asian financial crisis; French election tightens

Another election is in the books, this time in Hong Kong. Yet another contested election, this time with comparisons to the previous trough in social mood, the Asian financial crisis.
C.Y. Leung seeks unity after divisive poll
Chief executive-elect Leung Chun-ying called for unity yesterday and promised to defend Hong Kong's core values after winning a narrow victory in the most controversial leadership contest since 1997.

...Leung saw his own support on the 1,193-strong Election Committee climb steadily as that for Tang fell amid scandals over marital infidelity and unauthorised renovations to a Tang family home in Kowloon Tong.

Yet despite winning in the first round with 57.7 per cent of the votes available - and 61 per cent of those actually cast - his victory was unconvincing, and the narrowest since the first chief executive, Tung Chee-hwa, won 320 of 400 votes in 1996. In 2007 Donald Tsang Yam-kuen was re-elected to his current term with 649 votes from the 796-strong Election Committee, or 81.5 per cent.
France's election also seems to be tightening in part due to the terrorist attacks last week.

Hollande hits back at Sarkozy on security
The run-up to the first round of voting in the French presidential election on April 22 is set to prove a gruelling test for the opposition Socialist candidate, whose long-standing lead in the opinion polls is under pressure from both Mr Sarkozy and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the candidate of the hardline Left Front.

In a sign of the increasingly bitter tone of the campaign, Mr Sarkozy was quoted as calling Mr Hollande “nul” (or “useless”) in a Le Monde magazine profile. “He’s no good and it’s beginning to show,” said the president.

Mr Sarkozy scents a breakthrough – buoyed by a poll showing 74 per cent support for his handling of the crisis over the killing of three Jewish children, a Jewish teacher and three Muslim paratroopers by the self-styled Islamist terrorist Mohamed Merah, who later died in a shoot-out with police.
Before, Sarkozy was under threat from the right-wing National Front, now the socialist candidate is also under threat from a left-wing party. Without doing a detailed analysis, here's a rough look at how social mood may affect the election. If the CAC 40 climbs to it's post 2008 highs around 4000 (or at least maintains the current uptrend), that would be a good sign that Sarkozy will be reelected. If the CAC 40 declines towards 3200 or the current uptrend breaks, then Sarkozy's chances will fall with it. This late in the game, there's little chance for an outsider victory, but if for some reason the CAC tumbles to fresh lows (which would require a 20% drop from here), either the left or right could knock out Hollande or Sarkozy in the first round of voting.





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