2012-03-20

Third update: Bo Xilai arrested? Social mood in China

Earlier today I saw a rumor that turned last night's weibo posts on a possible detention and questioning of Bo Xilai into a coup. The source was the anti-communist party Falun Gong paper, Epoch Times, which I take with a dump truck of salt. Coup in Beijing, Says Chinese Internet Rumor Mill. Now it showed up on ZeroHedge: Andy Lees On China Coup Rumors.

The rumors are just that, but they do have some information value because they tell us about the social mood in China—negative.

Second Update: While the original post (pasted below) remains a rumor, we can now at least understand how it started.

New Details Emerge of a Top Chinese Official’s Removal
The report also states for the first time that the Chongqing police chief who set off that earthquake — Mr. Bo’s trusted aide, Wang Lijun — had sought political asylum when he fled to at a United States consulate to escape Mr. Bo’s wrath.

...It also raises the prospect that Mr. Bo could face criminal charges, a rarity for an official of his rank. The party secretaries of Beijing and Shanghai, province-level cities like Chongqing, were dismissed in 1995 and 2006, and later were imprisoned for corruption. Like Mr. Bo, both were also members of the Politburo, the 25-member body that oversees Communist Party affairs.

...The party investigation’s “preliminary findings” state that Mr. Wang, whose portfolio included Chongqing’s security apparatus, told Mr. Bo on Jan. 28 about “important cases related to the Bo family.” Mr. Wang told him that some investigators on the cases had felt pressured and sought to resign.

“Comrade Bo was very unhappy about this,” the leaked transcript states. Within days, he arranged for Mr. Wang to be removed as police chief and demoted to a lesser role supervising education and science, without seeking the approval of the Ministry of Public Security, the document adds, “as rules dictated.”
The article also rehashes some things talked about on this blog, such as the fact that Bo Xilai was a populist politician.
But that same personality and political bent were said to nettle President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao, who appeared to resent his mixing of state power over the economy and society with the promotion of his personal and political interests. Some in the elite also frowned on Mr. Bo’s crowd-courting, almost Western, style of politicking.
The article doesn't mention it, but after the Wang Lijun scandal, Bo visited the 14th Group Army, a unit created by his father, Bo Yibo. Mix populism and an appear to military power and that isn't Western politicking, it more resembles Chavez-style politicking.

Original post: Normally I ignore rumors, but this could be accurate. There's a rumor circulating on weibo that Bo Xilai has been detained and questioned:
薄被双规,周也不妙,BD进京!有大动作,——军车如林,长安街不断管制。每个路口还有多名便衣,有的路口还拉了铁栅栏
Bo has been detained and interrogated, is also not good, the BD to Beijing! Big movements - military vehicles, such as Lin, Chang An Avenue, continue to control. Each intersection there are more than plain-clothes, and some intersection pull the iron fence
Screen shot in case it is deleted. Reporters have also "tweeted" the same story, but they used Bo Xilai's full name, so their posts were deleted.

Update: I forgot to put in the link to the post, but it is deleted now anyway. At this point I still believe it's just a rumor.

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