2012-04-01

All politicians losing popularity and likability

Examples from Italy, Spain and the USA.

First up the USA.

Not-So-Smooth Operator
Something's happening to President Obama's relationship with those who are inclined not to like his policies. They are now inclined not to like him. His supporters would say, "Nothing new there," but actually I think there is. I'm referring to the broad, stable, nonradical, non-birther right. Among them the level of dislike for the president has ratcheted up sharply the past few months.

It's not due to the election, and it's not because the Republican candidates are so compelling and making such brilliant cases against him. That, actually, isn't happening.

What is happening is that the president is coming across more and more as a trimmer, as an operator who's not operating in good faith. This is hardening positions and leading to increased political bitterness. And it's his fault, too. As an increase in polarization is a bad thing, it's a big fault.
I don't believe Obama is behaving differently, though if he is, it is a subtle change and one that could probably be explained by the same social mood that's causing him to lose likability with his political opponents.

Now onto the puppet government in Italy.

Storm clouds gather over Monti's Italy reform drive
Storm clouds are gathering over Mario Monti's efforts to transform the Italian economy, with his approval ratings dropping, mounting protests against his reforms and a damaging row with the parties that sustain him in parliament.

Monti shot out of the blocks after being appointed prime minister in November and quickly implemented tough austerity measures to fend off the debt crisis. But he now risks running into political quicksands that will slow down and weaken the much harder task of reviving a notoriously stagnant economy.

A labour reform that is at the center of Monti's programme has hit heavy opposition, forcing him to abandon immediate implementation and accept a parliamentary debate that will delay the law for months and could lead to it being diluted.

The reform has also caused rifts in the center-left Democratic Party, his second-biggest parliamentary backer, destabilizing the alliance on which he depends to govern.
This is exactly the same popularity path followed by all Japanese prime ministers since 2006 and many other leaders worldwide. Initial optimism for the new leader is quickly subsumed by social mood and their popularity declines almost non-stop.

And now Spain.

Spain’s Ruling Party Disappointed in Regional Ballot
In Sunday’s vote, the Popular Party won 50 of the 109 seats in the regional assembly of Andalusia, against 47 seats for the Socialist Party. While the Popular Party won the most votes in Andalusia for the first time since Spain’s return to democracy, it fell short of the 55 seats needed for the absolute majority. Instead, the outcome leaves the door open for the Socialists, who have controlled Andalusia for 30 years, to continue in government there if they can secure the support of another left-of-center party, United Left, which won 12 seats.
Riots and general strikes are now taking place in response to austerity cuts.

I earlier covered Japan and Australia in Australian Labor party internal dispute puts the U.S. GOP to shame; Japanese voters unhappy, may give reformers a shot at leadership

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