2012-11-25

Self-determination: coming to a country near you!

Separatists winning in Catalonia, Spain: early results
With half of votes counted, the ruling Convergence and Union alliance, or CiU, was winning 48 seats in the 135-seat local parliament, well down from its current 62 seats.

The separatist Republican Left, or ERC, was winning 20 seats, with two other smaller separatist parties taking a total of 16 seats, giving the four parties 60 percent between them.

Regional President Artur Mas, of CiU, had campaigned on a pledge to hold a referendum on independence, in response to a resurgent separatist movement among Catalans who are frustrated with Spain in a deep economic crisis.
The Reuters article says the main party losing seats may derail a referendum. I see the opposite: the main party lost seats because it is a latecomer to the independence movement.

The recent outbreak of secession talk in the United States could very well end up in the same place as Catalonia. While the U.S. federal government claims states cannot secede, the United States supports secession and self-determination all over the world, from Tibet to Kosovo, sometimes even fighting wars to create new countries. In the not too distant future, you may read news of U.S. states seceding, appealing to the U.N. charter and receiving support from China and Russia.

This article from ABC lays out some of the problems related to secession. The main one is economic: people who choose security over self-determination will obviously opt for security, as seen in Quebec and as will probably be seen in Scotland. In places where the desire for self-determination is stronger, or where there's a strong economic foundation, secession will gain support as social mood declines.

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