What's Your Time Preference?

This article at Business Insider, 'A crash is coming, and it may be terrific', discusses how John Hussman has "lost credibility" due to having forecast a bear market for several years.

Because Hussman has been so clear and "wrong" for so long, he has now become a laughingstock. In an industry that measures itself by weekly, monthly, and quarterly performance, you have about 90 days to be "right" before your reputation begins to erode. Hussman's years of caution, therefore, have destroyed most of the credibility and influence he once (deservedly) had.

I covered his latest call here: 10-Year Expected S&P 500 Return: Zero

This is a chart of SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), adjusted for dividends. Assuming Hussman is correct and stocks eventually fall 50% from current levels, he not only would have been correct to warn of a correction for going on five years, but if someone suggested you stay out of stocks for 15+ years in 2000, they will also be proven correct if stocks drop.

Here's the long-term chart of the 30-year treasury bond price.

Here's the price ratio of 30-year bonds to the S&P 500 Index.