Nine Quarter SMA Bear Market Signal

A commenter at Slope of Hope posted a chart of the S&P 500 with a 9-quarter SMA. The signal is two quarterly closes below. The three signals came in 1988, 2001 and 2008. Not bad. I looked at the Dow at SlopeCharts and went back to the early 1920s. It is a fairly reliable indicator and the 1987 false signal disappears. There is a false signal in 1957, but most other false signals came in the 1970s.

Major market turns usually show up in all types of data sets. I don't place any particular emphasis on this, but it is one more piece of information that could help confirm or reject a major directional call.