Waiting to Short Again

I was slow on the trigger yesterday. I expected ES to pop above 3930 area, but waited too long for calls. I'm waiting to re-enter on the short side. This is a bear rally. The payroll report was perfect for this setup. Stocks are rallying, but bonds aren't because employment was better than expected.

I sold some September puts in MPWR on that sucker's plunge, and was stopped out of a weekly (next week) put position in Meta, which gives me a nice big cash position of about 40 percent (MPWR rained, down nearly 20 percent in 5 trading days).

Bonds have already started sinking and stocks too, so maybe this isn't the rally. If not, another scenario is stocks plunge early next week when all the vacationing traders and managers realize they're two weeks late to the next wave down. Then maybe a bear rally. Or not. If I'm right about this bear, at some point the market will relentlessly sell off like MPWR did the past week.

I will be focused on bonds. As long as they stay down, I will be shorting with very high confidence because even a mistaken entry too early will end up paying off. Whereas if bonds rally, a rally could potentially get ugly in the short-term for bears, ugly enough that you don't want to short too early.