30% Discount Mortgage? Maybe Next Year

If you are one of the small number of premier or institutional clients, you might be able to get a 10% discounted mortgage in a first tier city right now. Otherwise, forget it. A 30% discount is a pipe dream for now, but financial industry insiders think it could arrive in the first or second quarter of 2015, or maybe the second half of 2015...


Bank lending impulse is not strong, only a few cities to see a 10% discount mortgage rates

7 off the first mortgage interest rates expected long-awaited coming out next year

Securities Times reporter Kai Zhu

As the property market finance one of the highlights of the New Deal, 30% off the first set of first-hand or second-hand housing loan interest rates fall, how far away from reality? This is quite a topic of concern to the industry.

According to the central bank early October issued new regulations identified first mortgage, commercial lending rate limit is 7 fold, but not enforce interest rates. According to the Securities Times reporter survey, for a small number of quality customers or institutional clients, now part of the lowest tier city commercial banks only gives 10% discount rate.

Insiders judgment, even if the central bank cut interest rates during the year are not implemented, the current downward trend in the total social cost of financing has been basically established, the future may be through bonds, bank financing (including various kinds of "baby" Money), the chain of credit to conduction. With local governments in disguise "rescue" and relevant mortgage "window guidance" in advance of the earliest in the second quarter of next year, 7% off mortgage interest rates are expected to appear.

Transmission rates of the chain

Whether banks have an incentive to perform 7 off mortgage interest rates?

Shall not an account. Accordance with the statutory five-year benchmark lending rate above 6.55 percent commercial computing, 7 off the mortgage interest rate should be 4.585%, 10%, compared with 5.895 percent. If the funds for general corporate lending, comprehensive income than bank loans available for at least 20% higher.

Furthermore, the negative impact of a few years ago, Zhejiang, Fujian and other places to bring the mortgage repayments tide has not yet dispersed, Downcast national property market, but also further reduces the risk premium real estate collateral. In addition, economic weakness and corporate credit risk rose to bring pressure on the bank's bad loans, also largely restricted housing mortgage loans smoothly.

In fact, the current alternative to the traditional role of the deposit has primarily money market financial instruments, although key differences exist within the Table outside, but they also belong to the important part of the interest rate transmission chain. In October 24th China Electronics [0.00%] bank network monitoring "baby class" financial, for example, the top three seven day year rate of return of 4.649%, respectively, 4.579% and 4.56%; ant's balance of payment service Bao 7 days return approximately 4.145%, ranking later.

Of course, relies mainly on commercial bank loans to fund the Department of Internet IT department "baby" products can only be used as a reference. According to statistics, the banking system monetary financial lowest yields in a stock line of products is only 4.122%, with the first ICBC [ -0.85% funding research report ] Bao salary gap is more than 10%.

In addition, other types of equity index-linked structured financial products, the three-month period a single case of the highest guaranteed floating rate of return of 13%; the same term credit class financial products, the average expected yield level roughly 5.3 about%. The latest statistics show that the current range of market expected rate of return financial products accounted for 3% to 5% of 34.9%, 5% to 8% accounted for 59.15%; in form the basis of the asset, the bills, the interest rate and bond accounts 59.03% more than the total.

It is worth noting that, due to increasing competition, despite which bank nor will immediate return on assets and liabilities as current level of costs to consider, otherwise it will lead to loss of customers. In other words, the prevalence of maturity mismatch, making banks dare to lower yields in the asset side began, still corresponding financial liabilities side had promised to pay a higher expected return; and generally after three months to six months, new hair income level of financial products appear generally declined.

Lion Fund senior researcher bonds on Securities Times reporter Ching said the market gains in the conduction hysteresis, a good explanation of the first half of 2013 the bond market bear market, while the balance of treasure such yields have been rising until early this year to 6.76% historic highs reasons. Similarly, the current decline in its yield also contains this rule.

Choi Tong Securities, a proprietary investment manager said that this is indeed an interesting phenomenon bond market. With the high and low ends of the yield changes in assets, institutions continue to perform in liabilities side (yield) of compression, repair, re-compression process, continuous cycle.

"This year bull market in bonds is that since September increase is more pronounced. This may herald the beginning of next year, financial yields will fall 3 percent overall era, that time is also bound to the low interest rate credit return, seven off mortgage may appear. "Ching told reporters.

It should be noted that the rate of return financial products and do not represent the cost of credit funds, the former is more off-balance sheet assets, which belong to the assets in the table. However, the market interest rate transmission chain, but they are closely related.

Mortgage "window guidance"

Many data indicate that in the current interest rate and the macro environment, commercial banks simply can not give 30% off mortgage rates. Even some market participants pointed out that 10% interest rate is also difficult to find reliable business logic.

Reporters learned from a number of channels, most banks for 10% or 9.5% mortgage, are given appropriate "bundling conditions." While access to housing mortgage loans, the owners must be purchased separately a certain amount of financial and insurance, or to sign an agreed amount of credit agreements with the bank. This "walking a fine line" approach is not currently heard regulators intervene.

"Personal judgment, in terms of mortgage and interest rates, the relevant departments of the bank were affirmed window guidance." China Merchants Bank [ -1.93% funding research report ] Liu Dongliang, senior analyst at Financial Markets Department, said on Securities Times reporter.

Liu Dongliang in a research report on the credit risk will likely focus on the outbreak in 2015 pointed out that this year tightening credit environment continues to exceed the date for the beginning of a debt default or event of default quasi-continuous eruptions, bank NPL ratio was significantly higher. He worried about the future of our environment will continue the trend of credit tightening, non-governmental type debt will become a "minefield", 2015 or enter the "step on mine," the high incidence of.

Bank of Nanjing [ -3.15% funding research report ] Huang Yanhong, general manager of product strategy, told reporters that more and more non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks in the region on the rise, while the write-off of bad debt will consume the profits of banks. Therefore, the use of funds, the bank certainly hope invested in higher yielding areas. Relatively speaking, the attractiveness of mortgage also seem quite enough. Huang Yanhong example, the competent departments of the bank loans to SMEs to put a certain target, now also made ​​some positive progress.

Bank lending is not strong impulse

In fact, China's economy is less dependent on the real estate market to see. In response, regulators natural idea.

Although no conclusive evidence that the relevant departments of commercial banks issued under the "mortgage command", but the Chinese property market as well as the current situation within the next few hours, "not too optimistic", but it seems to be a high probability event. Director of Shanghai Research Advisory Council Song Yong Centaline on Securities Times reporter said he expects the current is not too strong impulse bank lending, 10% interest rates are dubious, and then not to mention a lower discount? The most important reason, is that the market should be expected for the price increases occurred in fine-tuning.

For the current suitability to buy a house in Shanghai's question, Council Song Yong bluntly said, now is not the best time, we recommend at least then wait two or three months.

Beijing accusing him of a state-owned financial head of marketing, told reporters that changes in market interest rate environment will be an important factor affecting the willingness of buyers, but it is not entirely simple price or value of the law to think. She believes that the more important in that the supply and demand changes, such as the demographic dividend Beijing, Shanghai and other cities of the future will continue, housing prices may not be a big problem; however, a small town in remote western region of a large number of new housing, is often there is no market price, not to mention the bank mortgage interest rates down? She believes that the bank mortgage issues, national regulatory authorities can not be across the board, for some provinces may have specific policies.

For reporters questioning "window guidance", the big firms noncommittal. For commercial banks, the seven discount mortgage rates guess, judging her time is more delayed, "7 discount rate at least until the middle of next year now."

In fact, since the National Day, announced the implementation of direct tax incentives or subsidies for the purchase of the city, from Ningbo, Weifang, Wuhu extended to Tianjin, Hangzhou , Changsha, Nanjing, medium and large cities, Shenyang and Wuhan. This trend, or fermented in the central rescue measures while continuing to spread across the country.

No comments:

Post a Comment