Land Sales Tumble 32% YTD in Top 10 Cities; First-Tier Drops Too On Supply Constraints

iFeng: 一线城市领跌 十大城市土地出让金大跌32%
Centaline real estate market research shows that as of August 25, a total of ten typical urban land transfer payments during the year was 395.3 billion yuan, while the same period in 2014, this value up to 580.26 billion yuan, year on year decline of 32%. Led by first-tier cities where there has been a situation, but the price of the land supply rose significantly, the introduction of an average floor price of land has increased by 9%.
Recall that land sales also plummeted in the second half of 2014. See: Deutsche Bank Says Land Sales Slowdown Only Started Hitting in Q4. First tier cities held up relatively well, while third- and fourth-tier cities saw land sales collapse in late spring of 2014.

To be clear, the real estate market in many of the top 10 cities is doing well. Land finance is coming to an end in cities such as Beijing and Shanghai not because of a bad market, but because the land is already extensively developed.
"2015 annual top ten cities, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Dalian, Chongqing, Jilin land transfer will be about 500 billion yuan, the transfer may be the recent six years lowest point fell more than 40 percent year on year. "Centaline Dawei, chief analyst, said the sharp drop in area and the amount of land transactions, mainly due to the supply of land continued to decline.

According to statistics, this year as of July 30, Beijing-Shanghai-Guangzhou-Shenzhen four cities total land supply of 309 plots, while in 2014, the annual supply of up to 849 plots of land. As of this year July 26, four first-tier cities, the total land transfer is only 206 billion yuan, down 26.4 percent year on year.
Indeed, the drop in Beijing land supply lines up with the decline in revenue:
And in 2014, the total for the program to 5150 hectares of land in Beijing, plans to supply 1,650 hectares of residential land, of which 650 hectares of affordable housing projects, commercial housing 1,000 hectares. Compared with last year's plan, residential land supply plans to reduce by 27%. Including from the housing, including housing supply area is also reduced by 25%.
I didn't come across an article discussing the situation in fourth-tier cities, but I did come across an article that says fourth-tier developers and speculators may begin fire sales to unload properties ahead of the property tax taking effect.

iFeng: 房地产税纳入立法规划 三四线城市或现甩卖潮
Lu Wenxi said that by lowering prices, will be home to share part of the cost of the next few decades to keep the room above, you can make a family to get rid of the depletion stage consumption situation, buyers while maintaining stable social spending power, can drive the development of other sectors consumption spillover effects should not be overlooked, to big to say, would help the balanced development of the national economy.

There is support, there will be dissenting voices. At present, the situation on the market generally reflects the limitations of thinking on the market for real estate taxes cause some concern, fearing the property this decline. In particular, some investors and housing prices are more objections. Lu Wenxi view, for investors, as long as timely exit, there will be no loss. Real estate tax is expected for at least another two or three years will really fall, but the last two years significantly reduced the proportion of investors a few years ago into the property market investors, income had doubled. Even if housing prices decline, is also the most profit on impairment will not "lose to the flesh."

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