2015-08-13

The End of the Inflation

The U.S. dollar is experiencing a great rally versus foreign currencies, but in truth it is the inflation in foreign money and credit being revealed.

ZeroHedge looks at it from the Asian perspective: What Happens Next?

Answer: an 18-year trendline breaks.

Some previous posts on the U.S. dollar are below:

From 2012: Chinese yuan is down for the year, more losses coming
One of my main reasons for predicting a depreciating Chinese yuan (and I've been wrong for about 2 years thus far) is that I expect a U.S. dollar bull market against foreign currencies, and the PBOC's switch to a currency basket means it will break with the U.S. dollar. Previously, China was adding euros during the first and second round of the Greek crisis, which structurally weakened the yuan (based on my expectation of euro depreciation). The above article shows that the PBOC hadn't followed its rhetoric and is only now relying on the currency basket, which could go a long way to explain the depreciation in May. The wildcard in the basket is the yen.

From 2013: Death of the U.S. dollar greatly exaggerated; Historic U.S. dollar rally still likely, pointing out hyperinflation, if it occurs, will start overseas and end with the U.S. dollar.

Also from 2013: Epic dollar rally coming. Link to Christine Hughes of OtterWood Capital explaining how Abenomics will doom Japan.

Watch Out For The Shock, It's Coming

How Do You Cry Havoc in Chinese? 发出屠杀的号令,让战争的猛犬四处蹂躏!
China has joined the currency wars and now all Hell can officially break loose. Cue the epic U.S. dollar rally. Keep your eye on the Asian Dollar Index, a sustained break below 114 will signal a bearish breakdown. For the U.S. Dollar Index, watch for a sustained break above 89.

March 2015: Historic U.S. Dollar Rally Underway
Christine Hughes of OtterWood Capital outlines how the U.S. dollar could experience an epic short squeeze, a bull rally that will be one for the history books. She doesn't talk about the yuan, but it will not be able to ride this squeeze higher amid a domestic slowdown.

The yuan is also the king domino in a dollar squeeze scenario. Once it goes, all the dominoes are going to fall, each one adding more rocket fuel to the rally. In terms of fireworks, however, the yen may be the "winner" among major currencies——assuming the eurozone doesn't break apart.

Dollar Rally Still In The Early Stages

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