The Tide Rises and the Tide Falls: EM Capital Outflows

FT: Surge in emerging market capital outflows hits growth and currencies
“These outflows have much further to go,” said Maarten-Jan Bakkum, senior emerging market strategist at NN Investment Partners. Capital outflows result when investors, corporations, financial institutions and others move their money offshore, thereby applying downward pressure on the country’s currency.

...as the funds cascade out, a vicious circle is triggered. Currencies tumble against the US dollar, damping demand for imports and driving down aggregate demand. In June, for example, overall emerging market imports were 13.2 per cent lower year-on-year, according a moving average compiled by Capital Economics.

“The collapse in emerging market imports reflects a more fundamental drop in demand as capital outflows have forced domestic demand to shrink and lower commodity prices have eroded incomes in commodity-producing countries,” said Neil Shearing of Capital Economics. “So far, there is little sign that we have reached the bottom.”

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