Weak Credit Growth Keeps China Housing Rebound Stable

Existing home prices stopped falling according to the 100-city survey and Langfang, a city that borders Beijing, led the rebound with a 5.55 percent month-on-month increase.

iFeng: 百城二手房均价止跌回升，这个环京城市涨幅最大

Zhuge data shows that in March 2019, the average price of second-hand residential listings in 100 key cities was 14,890 yuan / square meter, up 0.27% from the previous month. After six consecutive months of decline, the market gradually recovered after the holiday, some cities demand Released, the transaction rose, and the market rebounded in March. The market gradually improved.

From the number of cities in the ups and downs, the average price of second-hand houses rose by 59 cities, an increase of 12 from the previous month, with an average increase of 1.72%, and the increase was obvious; 41 cities fell, 10 fewer than last month, and the average decline narrowed to 1.18%.

According to the analysis of the report, in March 2019, due to the gradual release of partial backlog demand after the Spring Festival, the market's monthly falling trend was reversed, and the number of cities increased more than the previous month. The average decline in the falling cities narrowed and the market turned positive.

Although Beijing prices didn't spike, demand surged. Anecdotal evidence says sellers aren't cutting prices and there's no time to haggle. Buyers who dawdle will miss their chance to buy.

iFeng: 北京二手房市场升温 购房者：没来得及讨价就被人买走了

"My year ago (Lunar New Year) I saw a house near the Jiulongshan subway station, and I found several agencies to inquire about the situation. The landlord mistakenly thought that there were a lot of potential buyers, so I raised the price by 200,000 yuan. I thought it would be a while. Look, I didn’t expect to be bought by the whole person after the year.” Mr. Fu (pseudonym), who has a house purchase plan, told the “Securities Daily” reporter that he has accelerated the pace of viewing.

Ms. Li, who had had the same experience, told the Securities Daily that in order to buy the school district, the first suite outside the East Fourth Ring was sold some time ago and sold for more than 5 million yuan. I thought the market was not up yet, so it was slow. Slowly watching the house in Haidian District, the results of two weeks later found that the house that had previously wanted to bargain was quickly sold. "The owners are not willing to cut prices, a set of 8 million yuan house, even the 100,000 yuan bargaining space is not given." Ms. Li said, "I have no way, quickly bought a set, or else afraid of rising, hesitant Indecision is more loss."

"If you look at this set, it will be sold out in a week." On March 17, in a large real estate agency store in East Third Ring Road, a well-dressed agent showed reporters the newly sold houses. This confirms the resurgence of the second-hand housing market in Beijing. “The market has been trading since 2019.” He repeatedly said, “In the first place, the Beijing property market will soon start (up).”

Subsequently, the "Securities Daily" reporter randomly selected several communities to ask about the situation. Two weeks later, the reporter received a call from the agent and was told that the house that was last asked had been sold. "It's that fast." He said something smug in his words and said, "I will help you look at other communities?"

Since price follows volume, prices should rise in the coming months, but as long as China sticks with deleveraging, the housing market should remain stable. A spark of credit growth could ignite the dry tinder of pent up speculative demand, real demand, inflation fears, fear of missing out and rising animal spirits.