Shenzhen Stopped Reporting Avg Home Sale Price, Analysts Speculate Price Limits Could End

Chinese media are speculating Shenzhen's decision to stop reporting average transaction price may be the first step towards ending price limits.

iFeng: 深圳不再“官宣”楼市均价!放开限价前奏?
Sogou: Shenzhen no longer "publicizes" average housing prices! Prelude to Ending Price Limit?
Recently, the news that Shenzhen no longer publishes the average transaction price of the official real estate market triggered a heated discussion in the market.

In fact, since April this year, Shenzhen Real Estate Information Platform no longer publishes the average transaction price and total transaction amount of new houses, as well as specific information such as the average transaction price and total transaction amount published by area interval classification.

What other information "disappeared" with the official average transaction price? Why is the relevant data no longer published? What is the impact on home buyers? Zhongzheng jun will take you to popularize science.

Shenzhen No longer Announces Official Average Transaction Price

Previously, the daily and monthly average transaction prices of new and second-hand houses, transaction amounts and other real estate market data released by Shenzhen Real Estate Information Platform, as the only real estate transaction data released by Shenzhen authorities, have attracted much attention from the market.

However, according to media reports, after Shenzhen's institutional reform in April this year, the portal of Shenzhen's real estate information platform was changed from the former official website of Shenzhen Municipal Planning and Land Commission to the official website of Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau. Since then, the platform no longer publishes specific information such as the average transaction price and total transaction amount of new houses, as well as the average transaction price and total transaction amount published by area interval classification.

The data published on the brand-new Shenzhen real estate information platform only include the number of units sold, the area sold, the number of units available for sale, the area available for sale, and the "one house, one price" policy. Second-hand housing only announced the number and size of transactions, the transaction price has not yet been announced.

Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau Response

Due to the limited scale of Shenzhen's real estate market, the transaction price level is vulnerable to structural influences, and direct publicity of relevant price information cannot well reflect the real situation of the market. According to the requirements of macro-control of real estate in Shenzhen, in order to more accurately reflect the operation of the real estate market and referring to the practices of other sister cities, Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau will no longer publish the summarized transaction amount and average price information on the basis of making public the "one house, one price" price of the real estate pre-sale project. The relevant market conditions shall be subject to the real estate price index published monthly by the National Bureau of Statistics.

At the same time, Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau said that the first-hand pre-sale information of residential units is based on the reference data generated by real estate pre-sale surveying and mapping, and cannot be completely consistent with the delivery situation in practice. In order to avoid misleading property buyers, after research, the Bureau no longer publicizes the relevant information of residential units, and the actual survey of residential units shall prevail. The above adjustment is to better reflect the overall situation of Shenzhen's real estate market and is an integral part of real estate macro-control measures. At the same time, Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau will also release relevant information in due course according to the actual situation of market operation.

Price limit policy may be withdrawn

Li Yujia, chief researcher of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, pointed out that along with the "disappearance" of housing prices, there are also apartment type information generated by surveying and mapping during the pre-sale of new houses. In the future, the size and size of suites will be subject to the actual survey after the house is delivered.

As a result, the market cannot calculate the monthly average transaction price of new houses and the simple average price in different areas and regions. In the future, the only way to know Shenzhen's commodity housing prices is the monthly housing price index released by the National Bureau of Statistics, including the same month-on-month changes in new and second-hand housing.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, said that there are some problems in the price data of China's real estate market. Private organizations release data at will. Official data are missing. Real estate regulation relies on average prices. However, for first-and second-tier cities, average market prices are becoming less and less meaningful.

"At present, Shenzhen's new house transaction area is about 3-4 million square meters per year, accounting for only 35% of the total residential transaction area. Taking into account the supply of "similar housing" such as business apartments and talent housing, the proportion of new house transactions is even lower. Therefore, just like the official explanation, if a small number of new houses with high unit prices and large sizes enter the market, the average price of new houses will be easily pushed up. " Li Yujia pointed out that the supply of new houses has shown two characteristics in recent years, one is that the overall price has started to rise, and the other is that the high-priced and low-priced prices are divided into two levels.

"The overall average price of new houses has gone up, mainly due to the frequent occurrence of" land kings "from 2016 to 2017, which has raised the overall land price level to a new level." Li Yujia added that since 2018, the overall land price level has remained high despite the normalization of "land price limit" and the reduction of "land king" and land premium rate. In addition, the cost of urban renewal is getting higher and higher, resulting in the trend of "luxury" of new houses. In addition, Shenzhen's new low-priced apartments are concentrated in the peripheral areas such as Longgang, Pingshan and Guangming, while the main urban areas such as Nanshan are basically high-priced areas. The "polarization" of new home prices is obvious, resulting in poor supply homogeneity.

Li Yujia pointed out that at present, "stable expectation" has risen to the level of control strategy, and objectively more representative indicators that can accurately reflect the price trend are needed. The house price index calculated based on the principle of "homogeneity and comparability" (same quality, same area, same house type) eliminates the heterogeneity of houses, better reflects the overall market trend, and is also a general rule for global house price disclosure. Therefore, the house price index published by the National Bureau of Statistics, based on the general rules of international house price statistics and taking into account the influence of smooth heterogeneity, can better reflect the trend of house price changes.

At the same time, Li Yujia said that Shenzhen will no longer announce the price of new houses, and there is still a hidden problem, that is, since October 2016, the goal of controlling the price stability of new houses has become increasingly difficult to support. Since 2016, land prices have risen, and peripheral house prices are also rising, objectively pushing up house prices. The simple average price can be maintained at the level of October 2016 by delaying the entry of high-priced prices and "matching high with low prices". However, when the actual average price of new houses is getting higher and higher, there are few absolute low prices, and the promise to maintain a simple average price is becoming more and more fragile.

What is the significance of no longer "the average official price"?

Li Yujia pointed out that Shenzhen will no longer disclose the average price of new houses as the first step. In the future, with the establishment of a long-term mechanism, the price limit policy may be withdrawn. "Of course, this does not mean that house prices can rise at will in the short and medium term, but the local government's independent decision-making and regulation based on the main responsibility and the' one city, one policy' after defining the target of the fluctuation range. Similar to Shenzhen, 60% of the supply of new houses in the future will be subsidized housing and talent housing. If this part of supply can be guaranteed through the allocation of each plot, the price will be moderately liberalized. " . Li Yujia said.

"Brother City" had similar operations

It is worth noting that in July 2018, the real estate transaction data inquiry platform "sunshine home margin network", sponsored by Guangzhou housing construction Committee, also saw a similar situation, i.e. no information on the average sales price of the project.

According to media reports, the original number of units sold, area sold, check-out units, accumulated number of units sold, area, average price, unsold units, area and other data on Sunshine Home Margin Online have not been displayed normally since July 11 last year.

Subsequently, Guangzhou Housing and Urban-Rural Construction Committee responded that due to the partial data and information previously published daily on Guangzhou's "Sunshine Home Margin" website, it is easy to be unilaterally interpreted and hyped, which is not conducive to stabilizing the real estate market expectations. In order to further standardize the management of real estate information release and enhance the authority of information release and data interpretation, the release form of Guangzhou real estate market information is now adjusted to regular release and interpretation. At the same time, Guangzhou's propaganda, internet, housing, industry and commerce, public security and other departments will intensify their joint efforts to create a good atmosphere of public opinion and promote the smooth and healthy development of Guangzhou's real estate market.

No comments:

Post a Comment