Will UKIP Win A Shock Victory?

I have followed some of the European parliamentary elections in the U.K. As the headline says below, UKIP has come under increasing criticism since it has emerged as a major contender in the election, with a possible shot at coming in first. What I noticed is that most of the criticism is not policy oriented, but rather about issues such as party leader Farage's employment of his wife. Opponents are throwing everything they have at UKIP, which indicates to me that UKIP has public on their side when it comes to the main issues in the campaign.

European elections: Ukip under repeated fire – but it's not putting off the voters, say the polls
The Ukip leader endured what was one of the toughest weeks of his political career and yet support for his party was sustained. Mr Farage could even come first in the elections in less than four weeks.

A series of Ukip posters that warned "26 million people are looking for work – and whose jobs are they after?" and "British workers are hit hard by unlimited cheap labour" were condemned by opponents but a YouGov poll showed that the majority of voters – 57 per cent – believe the ads were a "hard-hitting reflection of reality", and 59 per cent said they were not racist.

......However, there were fresh claims about one of Ukip's candidates when it emerged that a former Conservative council leader – who resigned after a scandal over expenses – is to stand for the party at the next general election.
According to the report in the Independent, Labour leads with 31% support in an average of polls, while UKIP is close behind with 27%.

UKIP is a member of Europe of Freedom and Democracy
The group is a coalition of ten political parties – the largest being the UK Independence Party (UKIP) with eleven seats and the Italian Northern League, with nine seats – along with one independent. EFD is the most hostile to European integration among the groups in the European Parliament.

One surprise to some is that opposition to the centralization in the EU hasn't come from Spain or Greece, but rather from the UK and......Germany.

Germany's CSU to fight European election on eurosceptic platform
Germany's Bavarian conservatives, sister party of Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU), on Saturday agreed a manifesto for the European elections aimed at trying to hold on to voters tempted by more eurosceptic parties.

Policies outlined by the CSU include a proposal to secure Germany a veto on the European Central Bank's council, to drastically reduce the European Commission in size and to grant indebted euro zone states the right to go bankrupt.

Merkel does not back these moves so they are highly unlikely to become government policy, but the manifesto highlights fears among German conservatives they will lose voters to the anti-euro AfD, polling a little above 5 percent, in the May 22 vote.

"Europe must be turned on its head," states the programme passed on Saturday in Bavaria, describing the EU as a "project of the political elites".

Meanwhile in France, National Front 'not worried' about finding anti-EU allies in Parliament
UKIP and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) have already refused any alliance with the French far-right.

"I am not worried about forming a future political group in the European Parliament, and we will reveal our choice of partners at a later stage," Marine Le Pen declared.

The euroskeptic parties have a big impact in domestic politics, but while UKIP is aiming for a big win at home, the skeptics of all nationalities have a small influence in Brussels. In many countries, anti-EU sentiment is policy driven, not fundamental. The Spanish, Greeks and Italians are mad at the EU, but they don't want to abandon the euro or leave the EU. Within Spain (Catalonia), the U.K. (Scotland) and Italy (the Northern League) there are secession movements, but they would likely join the EU. The creation of the EU makes national governments less important and will increasingly make them irrelevant over time.

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