2015-04-09

GDP Growth Could Fall Below 7% in Q1, First-Tier Land Revenues Cut in Half

China's State Council released several policies moves aimed at boosting GDP growth:

iFeng: 国务院三招救实体经济 一季度GDP面临“破7”风险
In the first quarter GDP data will be released on the occasion, steady growth once again usher in the new measures. Yesterday, the State Council, "three arrows shot" corporate burdens, including cleanup SheQi administrative fees, the national coal-fired power tariff cut, cut iron ore resources in the proportion of tax collection. This series of policies to reduce the cost of corporate expenses to help companies tide over the difficulties faced in the first quarter GDP next "breaking 7" background risk, and promote economic growth "trilogy," The introduction also shows the current central steady economic growth determination.

The Xinhua report doesn't mention the fear of falling below 7% GDP growth:
The Chinese government announced a package of relief measures Wednesday to stimulate businesses and prop up the real economy against increasing downward pressure.

The State Council, China's cabinet, decided to cut industrial electricity prices and resource taxes on iron ore as well as eliminate "capricious" official fees for firms during a weekly executive meeting.

The move is the country's latest effort to tackle an economic slowdown amid concerns of a possible slip in the first quarter.

Reuters: China to cut iron ore tax in new blow to glut-hit prices
China has moved to prop up its struggling iron ore industry by slashing taxes, potentially expanding a global glut and undermining a strategy by mega miners to drive out high-cost competitors

Meanwhile, first-tier city land revenues have been cut in half.

iFemg: 一线城市土地出让金接近“腰斩” 地方财政有压力
China continued to cool the property market has also led to the adjustment of the land market steadily decline. Even in the property market is relatively strong first-tier cities, the land market transactions and transfer payments still showed a larger decline.

Central Plains real estate market research report released on the 8th, since the first quarter of this year, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and four first-tier cities 117 land transactions, land transactions with a total construction area of ​​11.32 million square meters, both of which are lowest point in nearly three years. Among them, the four cities a quarter of the land transfer 93.5 billion yuan (RMB), fell 47 percent from a year earlier.

Earlier research institutions released a statistics also reflect the land market downturn.

Middle finger hospital data show that from January to March, China's total 300 cities land transfer was 406.8 billion yuan, down 43%.

During National monitored 40 cities, only Xiamen and 6 other cities saw land transfer increases, more than 30 cities saw land sales fall. The 10 cities with the largest sales decline all fell more than 75 percent. Midwest City land deal more in the doldrums, Xining, Guiyang year decline in the forefront.


Elsewhere, ANZ sees new policies lifting home prices 5% in first-tier cities, but is still looking for sub-6% GDP growth in 2015.

China’s Big Cities To Win From New Property Rules
The property market easing measures could provide some modest support to growth in the remainder of the year. While we have revised down Q1 GDP growth downward to 6.9% from 7.3%, we revise up our Q2 GDP forecast to 7%, from 6.7% previously. Overall, we maintain our full year GDP forecast at 6.8%, but see modest upside if the property market recovers stronger than expected.

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