Chinese Stocks Double in 9 Months, How Long Can The Rally Last?

Chinese are starting to ask how long the bull can last. Most brokerages had 4000 as the high for 2015, it has already been achieved. Investors are also concerned about a bull market erupting amid an economic slowdown.
Many investors doubt "in the context of the economic downturn, why would form a bull market," which is why some of the more up market investors do not mind more at ease in the root of that fear of heights, early selling missed the bull feast.

4000 stock index last Friday stand-point mark, it is worth noting that 4000 was the beginning of many brokerage agency predicted in 2015 the "top."

Rushed 4,000 points, A shares "casino" theory of speech has become popular. Critics on "A bubble were many?", "A bull market can actually carry long?", "China's stock market irrational exuberance to the limit it?" And discuss triggering hot, some investors also increased fears.
Guotai Junan raised its target to 4600 and sees the third stage of the rally unfolding:
Guotai JunanPublished research reported that the bull market is about to enter the third stage. This stage, the mood will seek to promote the capital market depression, blue chip mature and grow, market-style reflected the "new equilibrium." Based on this judgment, the increase of the Shanghai Composite Index to 4600 points target, while raising the GEM index near the 3000 target. And the bull market in 2007 compared to the fundamental differences between this bull market is that the driving force quit the macro and micro driving force to start. And after the third stage of the bull market's performance will depend on the macroeconomic drivers of gradual recovery, and the risk-free rate decline could launch a new round.
Haitong Securities notes that no bull market ever peaked with the PPI at a low:
Haitong Securities chief economist Lee Thunder observed A shares bull markets you will find this rule: When you start, PPI and CPI are relatively low, the government adopted a policy to cut interest rates, as in May 1996, December 2008 and November 2014. When the 2006-2007 bull market that round starts, PPI is in a relatively low, relatively high point at the end. In the exchange since its establishment 25 years, there has not been the case of the bull market peaking with a negative PPI and no signs of recovery. From this perspective, to achieve economic recovery will take time.
He thinks the bull market will go on longer than expected.

iFeng: A股仅用9个月实现翻倍 本轮牛市能走多远

No comments:

Post a Comment