Chinese Trade Figures Plummet

The customs summary report isn't up on the website yet, but the raw data is up. Here are some explanations for why Chinese trade data came in much lower than expected. The data is for three months, so it's not a clear explanation of the March slide:

Year to date imports by country (overall down 17.3%): Hong Kong (-28.2%); India (-29%); Indonesia (-46.5%); Russian Federation (-32.4%); South Africa (-48.1%); Brazil (-37.3%); Australia (-26.9%); New Zealand (-42.9%).

Year to date exports by country (overall up 4.9%): Hong Kong (-10.1%); Japan (-11.5%); EU (+2.8%); South Korea (+2.7%); Russian Federation (-34.4%)

Year to date exports by volume: precious metals (-44.6%); crude oil (+324%); rare earths (-22.8%); coal (-50.4%); steel (+40.7%); aluminum (+43.4%); boats (-17.4%)

Year to date imports by volume: vegetable oil (-46.1%); coal (-41.5%); #5-7 fuel oil (-22.7%); natural and synthetic rubber (-17.7%); timber (-10.2%); steel (-10.0%); aluminum (-17.1%); autos & auto chassis (-16.3%); LCD displays (-3.4%)

All data from the Customs website.

Bloomberg: China’s Export Engine Loses Steam, Adding to Growth Pressure

Overseas shipments fell 14.6 percent in March from a year earlier in yuan value, the customs administration said in Beijing on Monday. That compared with the median estimate for an 8.2 percent rise in a Bloomberg News survey of analysts. Imports slid 12.3 percent, leaving a trade surplus of 18.16 billion yuan ($3 billion).

The export declines come as China grapples with overcapacity and a property slump. The country’s central bank has relaxed rules on home purchasing, cut interest rates twice and reduced the ratio of reserves banks are required to set aside in the past six months, with economists forecasting further stimulus.

“Consumption is weak, investment is decelerating, and now exports have come in as weaker-than-expected,” said Liu Xuezhi, an economist with Bank of Communications Co. in Shanghai. “Downward pressure on economic growth is increasing, making it more urgent for the government to start rolling out more pro-growth policies.”