2015-04-19

Chinese New Home Prices Barely Drop in March

Chinese new homes prices fell an average of 0.16% across the government's 70 city survey last month. There is still bifurcation in the market, but improvements were across the board, with no city seeing a 1 percent drop month-on-month. The shift points to a potential bottom in the market and based on the early data from April, prices are likely to be rising nationally this month.

Year over year, prices are down 6.1%.

Since 2010, average prices are up 7.6%.

March 2014: 4 cities saw declines in price mom, 10 cities were flat, 56 were up.
April: 8 cities saw declines in price mom, 18 cities were flat, 44 were up.
May: 35 cities saw declines in price mom, 20 cities were flat, 15 were up.
June: 55 cities saw declines in price mom, 7 cities were flat, 8 were up.
July: 64 cities saw declines in price mom, 4 cities were flat, 2 were up.
August: 68 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 1 was up.
September: 69 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 0 were up.
October: 69 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 0 were up.
November: 67 cities saw declines in price mom, 3 cities were flat, 0 were up.
December: 65 cities saw declines in price mom, 4 cities were flat, 1 was up.
January 2015: 65 cities saw declines in price mom, 3 cities were flat, 2 were up.
February: 66 cities saw declines in price mom, 2 cities were flat, 2 were up.
March: 49 cities saw declines in price mom, 9 cities were flat, 12 were up.

Existing home prices fell 0.15% in March. Prices are down 5.2% yoy. Since 2010, existing homes have only risen an average of 1.9%.

70 city new home price changes by market segment: below 90 sqm prices fell 0.09% mom; 90-144 sqm prices fell 0.18%; above 144 sqm prices fell 0.19%. The trend across market segments is the same for yoy and prices gains since 2010, with large homes only up an average of 5.3% since 2010 versus 9.9% for houses smaller than 90 sqm.

70 city existing home price changes by market segment: below 90 sqm prices fell 0.15% mom; 90-144 sqm prices fell 0.09%; above 144 sqm prices fell 0.19%. Existing homes larger than 144 sqm are down 0.9% on average since 2010. Existing homes smaller than 90 sqm are up only 2.9 percent since 2010.

Source: 2015年3月份70个大中城市住宅销售价格变动情况

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