ChiNext-Nasdaq Analog Test Underway

The current spike in the ChiNext lines up with a rally in the Nasdaq, almost day for day. The Nasdaq rally peaked on day 191 post-peak. The ChiNext rally may not be finished, but if it did peak, it peaked on day 193 (today is day 194).

The key remains the post-peak low, set on day 70, at 1797. The Nasdaq broke its low (set earlier on day 51) on day 150 and then broke down starting on day 175. ChiNext needs to drop 20% to break that low.

From day 191 to day 205, the Nasdaq fell 23% (from 3015 to 2291 between December 11, 2000 and January 2, 2001). Here's the logarithmic chart to make it clear how large losses still loom if the analog holds:

If the ChiNext doesn't correct in the next 30 trading days, the analog is busted. Ideally, a correction would commence in the next few days.

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