Ha Jiming: China Real Estate World's Biggest Bubble

iFeng: 哈继铭:中国楼市泡沫世界最大 房价本可跌不让跌
ANCHOR: Welcome to the live room is located in Boao, today we are very pleased to invite Vice-Chairman of Goldman Sachs Investment Management Department of China, Mr. Ha Jiming came to our studio, Mr. Hardy Hello.

Ha Jiming: Hello.

Anchor: Right, so today we have to talk about, we are very concerned about three issues, one is RMB property and stock markets, first of all to say about the RMB, the yuan actually last year after the "8.11 exchange rate reform.", And the beginning of the year have the case of a devaluation, the future development of the RMB you how to see it?

1, the RMB exchange rate to maintain stability in a reasonable and balanced level

Ha Jiming: I think the short term, the yuan will still maintain a against the dollar stable, China on the one hand it has a relatively large foreign exchange reserves , can withstand the pressure of devaluation, on the other hand, we also see some foreign exchange controls strengthen, so I think the loss of short term foreign exchange reserves and exchange rate depreciation will get some control; but in the medium and long term, the possibility of devaluation is still great, because now you want to China's export growth is actually very weak February exports were down 25%, then more importantly, from the point of view, China's money growth too fast, China's currency in January (M2) increased by 14%, you are so fast growth rate if the exchange rate does not depreciate , according to this logic pushed down in a few years, China can buy assets all over the world, this is absurd thing, this impossible thing, so you either money growth declined, but the decline in money growth may steady growth negatively, or you have to devalue, they must take one between the two.

Anchor: So we know, is actually a devaluation is expected of it, but do you think is going to kind of how a degree will tend to stabilize it?

Ha Jiming: I think so, if the economy does not appear significant credit crisis, then this may be a relatively moderate devaluation of gradual devaluation; if that is the devaluation when not derogatory, international experience It shows that many countries do not depreciate in the devaluation of the time, when the devaluation of the future may be stormy depreciation, so the devaluation of our future is what kind of situation to complete, the key is to depend on our own is not the economy during this period have capable of stable development, so that the financial risk can be a certain degree of resolve, if the financial risk in the period of sharp words continued to depreciate that time may not be so few percent a slight devaluation.

2, plus leveraged buy only increase the financial risk

Anchor: It is that we re-look at the property market is the problem, you know this is the beginning of real estate investment and sales data have also began to pick up signs, but we also see as some front-line cities, like Shenzhen that on several March may have risen 60/500, but in the second and third tier cities of view, that is not up with, how do you see the future development of China real estate? Polarization is not the case will be more severe, or how to do?

Ha Jiming: real estate situation and the exchange rate is very similar, that is, so in fact China's housing prices should have reached the stage of decline, and the reason there is no decline in our policy continues to drive it , including the promotion of public opinion, including local government Some of the policy, including the relaxation of monetary policy in an effort to make more people can come to buy a house, of course, very direct purpose is to steady growth, stabilizing the financial system, but I think these measures are likely to focus on short-term transition the interests of short-term stability, it may be based on longer-term instability for the price. Because we know that China is in fact the price is expensive, everyone says your house in Hong Kong, the Hong Kong price is expensive, but Hong Kong's price earnings ratio in the world to see it is in addition to the continent it is the highest, it is 15.6 times then New York and London are almost 10 times, 12 times, Tokyo, Japan, is only 8 times, you know , Shenzhen China is how much it 28 times, Shanghai and Beijing are also more than in Hong Kong, so there are a lot of people say that Hong Kong is the world's biggest bubble, I do not think, is a real estate Chinese real estate bubble in China is the largest, is far greater than in Hong Kong, far greater than the world.

No comments:

Post a Comment