Urbanize This: Migrant Worker Population Ages, Growth Slows, Low Wages

NBS has a report on China's migrant population: 2015年农民工监测调查报告.

Slowing migrant population growth

Most migrant population growth is from locals

Age breakdown, with China's aging demographics clearly visible.

The a geographic breakdown. Non-local migrants are those heading to other cities in their province or to other provinces.

Industry Breakdown

Average time spent working

Average wages

Workers are earning an average of 3000 yuan per month and they have living costs of about 1500 yuan per month. Of that, about 500 yuan per month is rent, so at most they have 2000 yuan per month in disposable income, assuming they don't have any other expenses, such as a family back home.

The problem of low wages is driven home by an article which argues Chinese home prices need to fall to levels seen 10 years ago if migrants are to afford them. It uses Tangshan as an example, where home prices have fallen to levels seen a decade earlier, yet homes still do not sell:
According to media reports, three years ago, the central area of ​​residential transactions fold to touch 9,000 yuan / square meter, per capita GDP ranking first in Hebei Province Tangshan City. Due to continuous years of stagnation, the average price of three years ago sold for 7,000 yuan / square meter of the project, now majority or the price. In 2007, housing prices in Tangshan will reach 7,000 yuan / square meter. 2008 is in the property market downturn, the urban average price was dropped to 5,000 yuan / square meter.

That is, Tangshan prices, have fallen to levels from 10 years ago. Even so, according to the Tangshan local industry say, as of now such sales pace, completely digest the current inventory Tangshan market, will certainly be more than 10 years. Although the name of the industry to the inventory, may be "out" too thorough a little. After all, any city can not supply and demand appear completely on the other, exactly the same, there is no gap phenomenon. However, leaving the 3-year inventory, but also more than seven years. The Tangshan, Hebei is one of the most economically developed regions, if Tangshan destocking time to be more than 7 years, what about in in other regions of Hebei, the other third- and fourth-cities around the country?
It goes on to note that migrants can't afford homes, but to allow a fall in prices will anger the current owners:
Right now, the call center around the need to focus on shantytowns. It should be said that this is more reliable than the migrant workers into the city to a stock method. The core of the problem, and still is the issue price. In other words, the current prices, whether with slum upgrading district matches, monetary compensation squatters, and whether affordable housing stock, is a big problem. If at this time the Government can give some support in terms of policy, so that developers can make some concessions, so the housing prices at a reasonable level, the stock is likely to go to produce a more active role. Especially developers to price, should the losses that may arise in the future is calculated, such as inventory and then three years, the number of financial and operating costs will increase, thus bringing profit to those fans who should also be a promotional tool A destocking mode. The government in the relevant tax aspects, some support to the buyers, it is possible from the psychological and confidence of buyers produce effective actuation.

Overall, according to the third and fourth tier cities the current situation, prices dropped only 10 years ago, will have the effect of de-stocking, will it be possible to activate the fan enthusiasm of residents, on the contrary, the difficulty will be quite large.

iFeng: 去库存就得房价降到10年前 这事靠谱吗

No comments:

Post a Comment