China Warns on U.S. Policy Towards South China Sea

China cautions U.S. Navy on patrols in South China Sea

While Beijing supports freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, the U.S. must be careful in how it uses that right, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said in the report.

"Freedom of navigation does not give one country's military aircraft and ships free access to another country's territorial waters and airspace," Hua is quoted as saying in the Xinhua report.

A U.S. Navy statement Wednesday said the littoral combat ship USS Fort Worth arrived for resupply in the Philippines after completing a weeklong patrol in the South China Sea that took it near the disputed Spratly Islands.

The Diplomat: US Encroachments in the South China Sea: What Would China Do?

Another likely consequence should the United States pursue this course: the official declaration of a Chinese air defense identification zone (ADIZ) over at least part of the South China Sea. The China-watching community has speculated on a possible South China Sea ADIZ since China declared an ADIZ over the East China Sea back in November 2013. So far, Beijing has held off but never dismissed the idea entirely.

On May 7, Hua Chunying told reporters that “China is entitled to set up ADIZs.” She added, however, that such a decision “depends on whether the air safety is threatened and to what extent it is threatened.” The United States sending surveillance aircraft into what China claims as territorial airspace would definitely qualify as a threat to air safety, from Beijing’s perspective, and would likely serve as a catalyst for a South China Sea ADIZ.

There’s one “X factor” in all this: the result of the Philippines’ request for arbitration over China’s South China Sea claims.

U.S. Gambit Risks Conflict With China

If such action fails to deter China, America will face a hard choice: back down and damage its credibility with friends and allies in the region, or escalate with the risk of being drawn into open conflict with China.

China immediately suggested that America would be crossing a line if it goes ahead with the plan. “Do you think we would support that move?” asked Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying. “Freedom of navigation definitely does not mean the military vessel or aircraft of a foreign country can willfully enter the territorial waters or airspace of another country.”

Her comments reinforced a view that America and China may be on a collision course. There’s very little prospect that China will stop ballooning the specks of territory it controls in the Spratly Islands. Much of the work has already been completed, but there is still more to do.

The Global Times recently discussed a speech by David Lampton. The WSJ discusses it here: U.S. Scholar Calls for Rethink of Primacy in Sino-U.S. Relationship

“The tipping point is near,” David M. Lampton, a professor of China studies at Johns Hopkins—SAIS, warned in a recent speech. “Our respective fears are nearer to outweighing our hopes than at any time since normalization,” he said.

He said the U.S. needs to respond positively to China’s “legitimate aspirations for a voice in the international system,” not worry that the response would be seen as a concession. “The single biggest thing Beijing could do,” he added, would be to use examples set by past leaders like Deng Xiaoping to improve relations with its neighbors by taking some “maritime disputes off the table.”

Mr. Lampton made his remarks on May 6, though texts of the speech began appearing online only in recent days.

Global Times: 社评：兰普顿对中美关系的悲观值得重视

Many scholars interviewed by the "Global Times" said Lampton's pessimistic description of Sino-US relations is worthy of attention.

Sino-US relations as a super-large complex systems, their recent trend is difficult to generalize about by "improvement" or "deterioration" Such simple words. Some scholars believe that the Sino-US relations around the traditional friction "flawed" such as arms sales to Taiwan and human rights in this category did not increase, but the emergence of new third-party factors led to the "soft tissues" such as the rapid increase in the South China Sea issues. "Soft injury" did not cause fluctuations in Sino-US relations directly to the trend, but the impact of both strategic psychological, serious erosion of strategic mutual trust.

They pointed out that China and the US a few years ago, although serious problems in the Taiwan Strait crisis, but the confidence of both Chinese and American society "impossible war" is quite solid. The current situation in the subtle changes, although the real possibility of a military conflict between the two countries has not increased, but both sides there are people seriously thinking about this problem: we do not want to fight, but now seems to be to prepare for the event of conflict.

China and the US to carry out more effective communication strategy is necessary. For example, China to strengthen the US-Japan military alliance and the US military deployment in the Asia-Pacific concerns other heavy. In turn, the United States of China in the East China Sea and South China Sea some moves often to the "worst" aspects of thought. The United States often say in the layout of the Western Pacific "is not directed against China," China emphasizes what we do is within the scope of China's sovereign rights, and other countries have done. Central America explanations can not convince each other, both sides may be necessary to make their own strategic intentions further elaboration.

China and the US over the years accumulated a lot of channels and experience of management and control of the crisis, which effectively reduces the frequency of Sino-US friction, these positive resources into a qualitative improvement of mutual trust between the two countries requires a condition that the Sino-US strategic interests in the Asia-Pacific interleaved region have a common vision. That kind of vision to give the Chinese growth leave enough space to completely accept the rise of China, while the United States national power to ensure its leadership on the relationship between the world not subject to the impact of the rise of China's deadly.

Recently American scholars mention the United States should respect the rights of China to increase military spending, and hope China's military has a proportionate share of US military "cap." Others explore the United States should pursue in the first island chain of military superiority, these topics are quite fresh, after all, in the United States continues to engage around the Chinese coastline came close surveillance, let Chinese people "trust the United States" is really ridiculous talk.

China long time in the future will continue to be the weaker party between China, the task of economic development and China to resolve domestic problems is very heavy, it is impossible to fully challenge the United States as a national goal, China is a long-term US strategic mindset defensive. If the United States now feel the urgency of the "China threat", no matter how many specific reasons, on the whole is very ridiculous. It shows that the US national security requires too much even-handed, it is largely in the "much ado about nothing."

"Step backward" is an old saying in China, the Chinese community's claim is not asking whether or not the situation well. Americans should learn to accept the idea, to avoid over-indulgence offensive thinking.