Regulators Already Losing Control As Policy Easing Sparks Speculative Fever in Housing; Retail Investors Anxious After 528 Crash

Shenzhen is on the far left.

In China, Shenzhen real estate is rebounding from long slump
A rainstorm that flooded roads in Shenzhen last Saturday did not stop some 4,000 people from lining up in front of the sales office of a residential community in Longhua District that had just started taking orders.

The buyers snapped up more than 700 apartments — the most expensive ones cost more than 40,000 yuan ($6,500) per square meter — in less than two hours, the developer said.

A similar scene occurred at six other developments that also opened for business over the weekend, underscoring the strength of the rebound seen in the southern city’s housing market since the central government relaxed property-related policies in September and again in March.

In recent months, the prices for new apartments in Longhua District — near Hong Kong and home to many IT companies — have soared from around 28,000 yuan to about 40,000 yuan per square meter, analysts familiar with the Shenzhen market said.

The market for second-hand apartments has also recovered.
The headline of this article in iFeng describes a situation where buyers bought 1,600 apartments in 4 hours for a total of 8 billion yuan.

iFeng: 楼市上演“抢房大战” 1600套房4小时抢光

This has led regulators to announce buying restrictions will remain in effect and these sell-out situations will be strictly investigated.

iFeng: 深圳楼市疯狂引官方发话:继续限购 严查"日光盘"
And as for the talk in recent days about the "out of control" Shenzhen property market, Shenzhen official said these were not objective, the official said to the excessive growth of house prices should not be exaggerated, it should be rational and proper guidance to buyers. In addition, Shenzhen will launch a series of measures to ensure the healthy and orderly development of the property market, including speeding up the sale of commodity housing approvals, accelerate new residential land supply. Fake "one day sell-outs" and other artifically exacerbated tight supply and demand "cover plate reluctant sellers" and other illegal activities, will be strictly investigated and dealt with according to law.

In the stock market, the regulators are silent as investor anxiety soars: 证监会对暴跌沉默意味深长 股民周末心发慌

"Thursday's crash, from the daily limit to the lower limit; rebounded on Friday, and from limit to limit, such heartbeatin stock market, how to play next week, how should I do??" After Thursday's terror after the collapse, and Friday no rebound, just received a puzzling the "doji" and SFC afternoon press conference, did not have any say on the stock market slump, which makes many investors expect policy to save the city more flustered.

Although 5000 is not a bull market top is industry consensus, but we are also cautious on the stock market next week that 5000 will be around for some time to adjust up and down or fluctuated.

...After the crash, most of the new investors suddenly gone spectrum, many investors are concerned about a regular meeting on Friday, regulators will not be so, for A shares what kind of argument or position as before. However, the Commission conference on Friday, the management did not issue any sound on the stock market plummeted.

Many investors worry 5.30 massacre reproduce, in fact 5.30 Incident Management is a sudden increase in the results of the stamp duty; and the recent market crash, is to adjust to market demand more spontaneous. "Since they do not want regulator comments to lead to a collapse, do not expect regulators to say anything to save the market." Guangzhou Securities in a market source said, management wants the stock market to go "Manniu" way, as long as the stock market does not appear irrational continuous spike , regulators "invisible hand" will not appear, this is the stock market a sign of maturity.

Aunty Zhao, who had experience in the 2007 crash, cut her positions in half.
The old shareholders Zhao aunt experienced in the 2007 bull market slump. "Slump 5.30 is very horror, many stocks plunged 40% in a short time." Last week coincides with the eighth anniversary of the massacre 5.30, as investors worried about the policy side appears heavy bearish again.

Zhao aunt told reporters that not only is she a lot of experienced last round of the long bear market of 5000 in the vicinity of the old shareholders have to lighten up plans. She also made full preparations, after a sharp correction on the stock market if touched 5000 points, then halve the warehouse is undoubtedly the best choice to reduce the loss. If singing all the way to seven or eight thousand points, and even break a million points, the remaining half position can guarantee themselves a share in a bull market.
Other investors are all in:
Reporters learned that many new investors are approaching 5000 points chase at the high bid, the result is "set" to live. Chen told reporters that the new investors, last week saw the market impact of 5000 points, he is extremely excited to buy what stock analysts friends advice, a friend suggested that he was not chasing the high, be careful near the 5000 shock, but he did not hold back, High chase into a small board stocks. When a friend asked him to dare to bargain-hunting after the crash, he only reluctantly said: "I have been chasing the high, all in."

The Economic Observer also looks at the stock market in “530”魔咒之后,成长股继续“牛”?
A shares do not believe in Murphy's Law

If you are worried about something happening, then it is more likely to occur, which is a classic description of the fourth article of Murphy's Law.

A share of the market has once again proven the existence of Murphy's Law. However, it seems not at all.

From entering since May, the market has experienced a few days after the opening of a new round sideways style sharp short squeeze - price, K line graph upside trend is exactly the same and the great bull market in 2007, at the 18th to the 27th, to achieve the "Eighth Yang" of the market will push the index to 4941.71 points.

However, the rapid climb in the index during those few days, the last round of experienced investors began to worry CBBC conversion occurs when the cliff is not the type to fall "530" price.

In this backdrop, May 28, 5000 stock index mark in one go after failing to turn upside down, again and again 4900,4800,4700 break point three integer mark, and eventually huge decline of 6.5% to close, resulting in two City, more than 500 stocks hit bottom, over 2000 stocks pan-green "grand."

On that day, except under "530 Quotes" Fear in the background, the national team "Huijin" holdings of the four lines, profit-taking, brokers tighten financing and IPO soon lever multiple factors such as the market is also thought to cause big day an important reason for fall. "530 Quotes" The reason why people fear, in addition to the Ministry of Finance midnight stamp duty to raise significant policy bearish stock market brings, but also because "530" style cliff fall is the end of the bull market preview. In this round of market, the "528" crash appears therefore cause for concern.

Eight years of a reincarnation. "528" after the crash, is not it will continue the trend of "530" after the? Or yet, this bull market will be any different? After "530", A shares where to go?

A discussion of various brokerage and investment bank outlooks follows:
After the "528" of adjustment, market focus extends bull next step to become a topic of concern investors most.

Southern Fund believes that despite some adjustments in the profit-taking pressure, but adjust the depth is limited, the same medium-term bull market, this view has been recognized by most analysts profession.

Founder Securities chief strategist 郭艳红 for Economic Observer said that after the implementation of the New Deal, Jiangsu Province, the local government debt, to generate a reference to other provinces, after the local debt default risk is reduced, the safety factor of the stock market can be improved; the same time, the management of the continued to accelerate reform of propulsion for the economic transformation provides a good expectation in the market continue to loose liquidity environment, which may be more long-term bull market.

But, as in the first half as the sustained and rapid rise in A-cap stocks, perhaps hard to see in the second half, a private person, said Beijing, a new feature of this bull market is constantly leveraged funds into the market, the market share of leveraged funds The rise is a direct result of the market volatility zoom, and even a market correction could lead to great fluctuations in the disk management precisely for this reason, the ongoing control lever, when the lever is controlled in a certain range. " fast ox "may turn regulators hope" Manniu. "

Currently, in terms of margin financing various indicators continued to climb, as of May 28, two financial balance once again set to reach 208 million yuan, of which, financing the balance has steadily maintained at 2 trillion or more, reaching 207 million yuan. At the same time, the ratio of the two financial transactions in shares traded in the A has maintained a high proportion of margin according to Company data show that as of the end of April, two financial transactions accounted for 17.1% compared to A-share trading.

Even in the May 28, the broader market plunged 6.5%, the funds financing the purchase amount is also once again hit a record high, reaching a high level of 2,691.39 billion yuan, buy only the amount of turnover accounted for 11.40 percent of the day. After Based on this, the purpose of the regulation of securities firms began to risk, in early May, 1352, China Merchants Securities lowered the discount rate securities, Hai Tong Securities May 26 Kusakabe issued a notice to all credit customer financing (vouchers) margin percentage increase of 5 percentage points again . On the same day, GF Securities also announced that in order to control the risk of margin trading business, from May 26 onwards, the financing margin ratio margin trading on the underlying securities from 0.7 to 0.75.

Meanwhile, with the regulators on OTC with a capital "forbidden umbrella", clean up after docking HOMS brokerage and other movements, off with the capital by a certain degree of containment, with Chinese companies and P2P platform is overall contraction direct docking with the capital broker business.

Based on these actions, the above-mentioned private placement to judge the second half of leveraged capital inflows may slow down the speed, enthusiasm after trading stabilized in the second half of the investment style will change accordingly.

On the theme, Minsheng Securities and Founder Securities are focused to the SOE reform. Minsheng Securities believes that the bull's largest regional theme - owned enterprise reform, real good yet fully Priced-In, has a real future potential of the pillar industries has not yet been fully excavated, the rise of direct financing market is still halfway through the second half with two intensive policy focus on catalysis 2025 is the Chinese main large manufacturing and state-owned enterprises. Founder Securities also believes in the second half, promoting SOE reform and perhaps even faster than we expected, after the formation of the top-level design, 1 + N SOE reform policy to accelerate the floor, around the local policies will be introduced intensive, including the reform of central enterprises, ESOP and the establishment of asset management platform, will bring good investment opportunities in the second half.

However, investment style, due to the different emphases of brokerage, distinct differences appeared in the restructuring of short-term strategy in the second half.

Among them, Huatai Securities and Gao Yi assets and other agencies believe that a clear opportunity in the second half of the industry structure and broad demand for space-financial assets. Huatai Securities analyst Luo Yi that the recent inventory shot regulators leverage, although good liquidity in financial stocks may be subject to the impact of the first round, but regulators are focusing on inventory objects are 1: 3 or more highly leveraged illegal market funds, and small, high interest rates do not meet the regulatory standards of these accounts financing, financing channels corresponding to these companies is much higher valuations, purely storytelling company. So, after this round of adjustment, the financial sector will have a very significant excess returns in the second half, the proposed allocation of financial stocks.

Guoxin Securities and Guotai Junan view the opposite happens. Guoxin Securities A shares from 5.30 after the departure angle fix proposed Hengqiang effect that when the resource class and now GEM can be compared, it is recommended after the crash should continue to focus on growth stocks configuration represents the new economy.

Guotai Junan Securities chief strategist Joe never hold "do not have a fear of heights, continue to favor growth" view that the "increase in risk appetite is the fundamental driving force of the bull market in 2015", "Before the macroeconomic environment has fundamentally changed the market in the short term does not style change will occur "in the third quarter suggest that investors still continue to configure the growth of the company and restructuring the company along traditional policy direction.

Investment sector, "may wish to focus industrial upgrading, such as 2025 in China, including robotics, high-end CNC machine tools; focus on emerging consumer formats, such as new energy vehicles, intelligent logistics, intelligent home, electricity providers, industrial parks and venture capital; Internet transformation traditional industries, such as agriculture, medicine and other. "Li Shaojun said.

No comments:

Post a Comment