2012-02-09

Does a Romney/Paul ticket make sense?

I have been thinking that Romney could pick Paul for his VP. One side I didn't realize before was the personal angle:
Despite deep differences on a range of issues, Romney and Paul became friends in 2008, the last time both ran for president. So did their wives, Ann Romney and Carol Paul.
Link.

Politically, much has been about Romney seeming like a good manager, but not an ideologue. The argument against Paul as VP is that he wouldn't "sell-out." The VP slot is often used to silence opposition, while generating support. Paul couldn't criticize the Romney administration if he was VP, for example. However, Paul is also building a movement and he rightly says that's he's the head of the movement, but not it's leader. Ron Paul is going to exit the stage soon and new leaders will emerge, what better way to exit than influencing the Republican party? Romney might toss Paul a few bones: no war with Iran without a declaration from Congress and monetary reform. The bigger prize is influence within the party. If Romney isn't an ideologue, he doesn't care which subgroup is winning within the party.

Paul cannot guarantee the support of his supporters because they are independent, which is a problem for Romney if he wants votes. There will need to be a real shift on a couple of policies to win support. However, if Romney and Paul are friends, they can find a way to make it work.

I've also talked about the civil war within the GOP and the likelihood of a brokered convention, which fits with a sharp decline in social mood. Repulican Senator Jim Demint now says it is possible. Also see: Path to a Brokered GOP Convention Emerges
If this occurs, and Ron Paul wins around 100 delegates along the way, we have a situation where no candidate has more than 900 delegates, and three have more than 400. In that situation, no one would be able to lay claim to the mantle of presumptive nominee. The convention would eventually deadlock, and an outside candidate could emerge.

This would not be without its difficulties. We’ve seen the problem with sudden, late entrants before. The nominee would have to be able to put together a platform, a fundraising organization, prepare for debates, select a running mate, and hit the campaign trail, all in a manner of weeks.

And the candidate would not be fully vetted. There might be some skeleton in his closet, or his family’s. One wing of the party might not be satisfied. Chris Christie’s name is frequently mentioned, but he believes in climate change and favors civil unions. How will the religious right react when that is in the spotlight? Mitch Daniels may bore Tea Partiers looking for a fighter, and his past as Bush’s budget director is a black mark waiting to be exploited by his opponent. Jeb Bush is a Bush. And so forth. While I think some of the choices that have been mentioned are better than others, they all come with risks.
He's on the right track with the type of infighting that can occur with social mood negative, but I doubt an outside candidate comes in. This means two of the existing candidates would ally themselves. Politics makes strange bedfellows and enemies have cooperated before, but in this case, there are two candidates not hammering each other in the debates.

In the video below, GOP strategist Jack Burkman also sees Paul on the ticket, through a brokered convention.


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