Chinese Housing Inventory Rises More Than 100 Million SQM in 2015

Although first-tier and in demand cities are experiencing drops in inventory, the overall national inventory of new housing has climbed more than 100 million square meters, to more than 686 million square meters.
"Data from January to September has shown, the national housing new construction area, completion of the area, land acquisition area and land transaction price of four typical indicators for the first time negative growth, which is unprecedented." Wang Zhong, director of Real Estate Research Center, Fuzhou University, said to October while four indicators are still showing negative growth. High inventory, investment fall is currently China's largest property market fundamentals.
This is the catch-22 for China. To reduce inventory, investment must fall, but GDP relies on the real estate industry.

Inventory might be double current levels once unfinished and unstarted projects are added to the mix, as well as unreported supply:
Unsold existing homes area after it is completed, not including a large number of the construction and did not start the potential stock not completed. In addition, there is a small property room around the country, as well as some not included in the statistical coverage of residential projects, as well as some not even rule should be reported unreported stocks. "Once recognized, Chinese property stocks may be doubled." Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research vice president Yang Hongxu said.
Third and fourth-tier cities remain the trouble spot, particularly the high-end:
"The current real estate market oversupply is structural overcapacity." CRIC Research Center analyst Huang Bin said. Reporters also found that in many interviews, while the overall stock continued to rise, but in the city, region, size, price, etc., but there are different degrees of differentiation: third- and fourth-tier cities, a number of central and west cities, high priced large apartments do not sell, inventory remains high.
Investment assets have inverted demand curves: as the price rises, so does demand. Due to Chinese housing being heavily driven by investment, falling prices leads to less demand:
A residential suburb of Fuzhou Lianjiang County residents told reporters that the district less than a third in the evening light. From 2011 opening for the first time sold more than 5000 yuan per square meter, and now down to 4000 yuan, few people want it. It's a microcosm of many four-tier cities in China.
Sales have risen in 2015, but it failed to dent inventory in most cities:
There is a big differentiation between Midwest City and the eastern coastal cities. National Bureau of Statistics data show that from January to October, the eastern part of real estate sales 3.9204 trillion yuan, an increase of 20.7%, the central region of real estate sales 1.2946 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.5%, the western region real estate sales 1.2639 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.6%.

iFeng: 楼市库存1年猛增过亿平米 部分房子不好卖

No comments:

Post a Comment