Steel will become the poster child for the breakdown of global trade and the return of mercantilism.

Bloomberg: Steel Is the Poster Child For Oversupplied Commodity Markets, and It's in Shambles
"With 1.6 billion tonnes of consumption globally, steel remains the lynchpin of industrial growth," wrote Hamilton. "However, the growth part of this equation is an increasing problem, and not only in China."

India, which has the potential to buoy demand for steel, is also contributing significantly to supply growth. Bloomberg Intelligence's Yi Zhu notes that 37 million metric tons of production capacity in India are currently under construction or in planning to be added.

"The only people who still seem to think there is significant upside in global steel consumption akin to the past decade are the major iron ore producers—for example BHP’s belief global steel consumption will hit 2.5 billion tonnes by 2030—just a further 50 percent upside required there!" Hamilton wrote in a separate note.
We only need Japan and Western Europe to completely shut down their steel industry in order to restore balance.

Related: Chinese Steel Industry "Sliding Into The Abyss"; Chinese New Year Could Bring Mass Bankruptcies

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