2017 Picks

I think I had only one pick for 2016 now that I go back over my posts: Turkey down.

2016 Forecast: Turkey Collapses

TUR was $36.07 in that post and closed at $32.07 today, not exactly what I expected. I'm sticking with this pick for 2017 though. Turkey had a lot of geopolitical problems in 2016 and I expect they will turn into financial troubles in 2017. The chart alone points to it. A different take on Turkish politics from FPRI: What the Assassination of the Russian Ambassador May Be Telling Us about Erdoğan’s Turkey

Another country with a similar chart is Mexico. (EWW) I'm not sure if this is a "Trump" formation caused by investors anticipating bad news for Mexico or not. But I will look for a downturn in 2017.

In the near term, the Chinese yuan looks a little oversold. I expect a bit of a rally after it cracks 7, even better if it rallies before since it will catch the bears. A 3 percent rally takes USDCNY to about 6.75, a 5 percent rally to 6.60. The PBoC has given bears nice entry points before, hopefully they provide another one. I don't think USDCNY will be the best currency play.

Speculative long picks: natural gas (FCG) and solar (TAN). I will pick out some higher volatility components within those funds.

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