2017 Will Be Worse for Turkey

A month ago I wrote: A Bad Year for Turkey, But Could 2017 Be Worse?

Now there is the assassination of the Russian ambassador.

Russian ambassador to Turkey assassinated by police officer 'in revenge for Aleppo'

The head-and-shoulders pattern of TUR has a target price in the low single-digits, a more than 90 percent drop from current levels. Given the price target, Turkey's increasingly religious government, Europe's growing nationalism, the United States potentially warming relations with Russia and Turkey's conflict with Russia, the geopolitical forecast points to Turkey potentially losing NATO membership. Or de facto loss of membership if NATO refuses to defend Turkey from Russian attack because it fingers Turkey as the aggressor. It's also possible the West could enact economic sanctions and send the Turkish lira into a death spiral.

Something much less dire could take place to produce a large drop in TUR, but Turkey's inability to stay out of the headlines suggests a bigger move, one that encompasses politics or security, is underway.

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