Ren Zhiqiang Less Optimistic

China's Real Estate Cheerleader is a little more cautious today. Instead of saying prices won't fall, he says prices will rise again in September 2015, assuming current conditions hold and the government doesn't greatly add to supply with more affordable housing and shanty redevelopments.

From iFeng:
任志强:如果其他因素不变 明年9月份房价会上涨
Has successfully predicted last year, prices rose Ren , they began "shooting", the latest prophecy is "if other factors remain unchanged, after September next year prices will rise again!"

Noah wealth of real estate in 2014, held August 22 Financial Summit Forum, Huayuan Real Estate [ Introduction News ] Ren Zhiqiang, chairman, said in his keynote address, "This round of house price decline, Beijing also appeared, if 70 cities inside the country, including the security room this part of the capital, housing prices will certainly still be down, but I do not think the absolute value is down, the downward trend will continue into next year or so has been in September. "

Ren said, "prices fall, but the absolute value did not decline to buy a house," is because the impact of loan interest rates. "Interest rate from 0.85 times to 1 times the normal run of about one million of the loan amount, 200,000 middle worse, in other words when the developers house price 100,000 dollars when consumers do not have any income, house not cheap but also have to pay 100,000 dollars in interest, "Ren said," especially the family monthly income of 5,000 dollars a month could spend 4000 dollars, of which two thousand dollars to buy a house, accounting for 40%, but the interest rate a up, same house, same price needs to pay interest and repay 3,000 dollars, has become 60% for the debt, it does not meet the loan qualifications. Beijing has seen a lot of people, because they may not lead to mortgage loans do not give up the house. "

Statistics show that in 2013, Beijing has supplied a total of 13 million square meters of affordable housing, which developers built one of the 45 percent, 5.85 million square meters, and the government built 7.15 million square meters, accounting for up to 55 percent. "If such a proportion in the country according to projections, we can know that this year the country sell less than 4,000 square meters of the house, but the Government has provided more than 40 million square meters of the house, in other words after the sum total of these two growth rather than decline, that we demand remains still. "Ren said.

"If other factors remain unchanged, after the next year prices will rise again in September," Ren stressed, "but there are two factors we can not control, can not control is the first affordable housing, the second can not control is the 10000 million and 4.7 million investment shed change sets housing reform has much impact on the market. "

"If these two local governments have been completed, the impact is enormous, next year in September destocking is still huge." Ren said, "We only produce 7 million units a year in housing, and 36 million units of affordable Housing tell you is seven million units a year, equal to the current production capacity doubled, if coupled with 12 million sets of studio change room is more than doubled again to increase affordable housing than we now supply much larger. "

"When the private sector development and investment decline, the government changed the method used shed in stimulating investment, in fact, may be the cause and effect reversed," Ren said, "I personally think that 1 trillion investment in affordable studio reform proposed by the central government, local governments may Coupled with a couple of trillion shed change funds, so this one trillion shed change, just like last year may 4000000000000 I think the impact on the market may be even greater. "

"Expanding non-market flows will inevitably affect the supply-demand relationship, we say that the relationship between the front of urbanization, demographic change can affect our future as well as greater demand, the only thing we do not know can not be calculated in the short term is not a non- Market Factors rapidly increasing supply, which may cause investment mistakes. "Ren concluded.

From the land of view, January to June, the Ministry announced that more than 70,000 square kilometers of land supply, "but we only took 19,000 hectares developers, the other 50,000 hectares of land do not know to whom, so In some areas will deteriorate the relationship between supply and demand and the supply and demand situation of differentiation. "Ren said.

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