Which Chinese Provinces Rely Most on Real Estate for GDP?

Earlier this year there was the provinces most reliant on land finance, now there is the provinces most reliant on real estate development.

The article actually has two lists, one that compared real estate investment to fixed asset investment, and one that compares real estate investment to GDP. The former number is skewed by several areas such as Beijing and Shanghai, that have built up their infrastructure and manufacturing. They have a low total investment figure relative to GDP, so the real estate portion looks high.

The better comparison is real estate investment to GDP.
Hainan 36%
Guizhou 27%
Yunnan 25%
Chongqing 24%
Fujian 22%
Liaoning 21%
Ningxia 21%
Anhui 21%
Zhejiang 18%
Sichuan 16%

Hainan, Guizhou and Yunnan are tourist destinations, so the reliance on real estate is no surprise. In contrast, Zhejiang and Fujian are relatively developed, yet real estate remains a high proportion of GDP. The tougher market conditions facing exporters over the past few years, such as higher labor and raw material costs and a stronger yuan, sent businesses into real estate.

两个指标显示：7省市最依赖地产 京沪未入榜(名单)

Editor's Note: From the two indicators, namely real estate investment accounted for the proportion of investment in fixed assets and real estate investment share of GDP, Hainan, Guizhou, Chongqing, Zhejiang, Fujian, Yunnan and Liaoning, are the most dependent on real estate investment in the provinces.

Investment growth is steady weapon, real estate investment is one of the pillars of investment in fixed assets, and therefore difficult to understand, many provinces economies are highly dependent on real estate investments.

"First Financial Daily" Statistical provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in the first half of this year, real estate investment accounted for the proportion of investment in fixed assets found solid investment in real estate investment for the dependence of the top ten are Shanghai (55%), Beijing ( 52%), Hainan (46%), Guizhou (33%), Chongqing (33%), Guangdong (32%), Zhejiang (30%), Fujian (26%), Yunnan (26%), Liaoning (22% ).

But several experts told this newspaper that real estate investment accounted for the proportion of solid cast, and can not fully explain the province's dependence on real estate because, like Shanghai and Beijing, such as urban centers, infrastructure and industrial investment has been little space, real estate accounting for investments in fixed investment is high, but accounted for GDP is relatively limited proportion.

Meanwhile newspaper Statistics found that if the real estate investment share of GDP to the row, the top ten was Hainan (36%), Guizhou (27%), Yunnan (25%), Chongqing (24%), Fujian (22%) Liaoning (21%), Ningxia (21%), Anhui (21%), Zhejiang (18%), Sichuan (16%), compared to the first rank, Shanghai, Beijing, Guangdong has been excluded.

It is not difficult to see, "two titles list" of Hainan, Guizhou, Chongqing, Zhejiang, Fujian, Yunnan and Liaoning, are the most dependent on real estate investment in the provinces.

Coastal tourism province real estate investment accounted for a high

In the provinces, the real estate investment in Beijing and Shanghai municipalities, accounting for two solid investment proportion surpassed 50 percent, the top two breakdown.

Centaline Dawei, chief market analyst on the "First Financial Daily" analysis, Beijing, Shanghai despite provincial administrative units, but they are the concept of the city, the area is basically city, after years of development, infrastructure has been very perfect, then large-scale urban construction and industrial space for large investment projects have been very small, "(solid cast) the denominator is small, accounting for naturally high."

Tianjin is a municipality in the only exception. In recent years, mainly due to the rapid development of Tianjin, a large number of large projects have settled in Tianjin Binhai New Area, and therefore industrial investment has been high, as the denominator of the total investment in fixed assets is more than the sum of the Beijing-Shanghai; contrary, because they do not have the first-tier cities of the country's radiation and attraction, attracting foreign buyers Tianjin relatively limited, so as molecular property investment is relatively low.

Similarly, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fujian these southern provinces developed after years of development, industrial investment has been relatively small, relatively complete infrastructure, coupled with the financial industry, many entities flock to real estate, real estate investment accounted therefore will be more high.

Shanghai E-House Real Estate Institute researcher Yan Yuejin told the newspaper, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fujian and other places has been optimistic about the market economy, the entire population of import faster, large industrial agglomeration effect, so the real estate development efforts compare big. In addition, the local private economy, the real economy is relatively developed, in the frenzy of the property market, many industrial capital flows into the property market, and promote the rapid growth of the property market.

However, compared with the above developed areas, Hainan, Yunnan, Guizhou's economy is not developed, but the proportion of real estate investment is very high, which is an important reason is that these provinces tourism led to a lot of real estate development. For example, early in 2010, Hainan International Tourism Island after construction started, there are more than 100 real estate development enterprises stationed in Hainan "staking" line sea view land resources increasingly tight, a lot of funds have flocked to Hainan.

The same situation also appears in Yunnan. In recent years, the influx of a large number of housing prices in Kunming , Xishuangbanna city, etc., get together and develop tourism real estate. In addition, due to the relatively warm south, many northerners would choose to go south for the winter, pension.

Weight, energy provinces the proportion of low real estate investment

The other hand, the proportion of real estate investment accounted for solid investment countdown, countdown the top ten were Jilin (6%), Inner Mongolia (7%), Gansu (7%), Jiangxi (8%), Qinghai (10%), Xinjiang (11%), Shanxi (11%), Guangxi (12%), Henan (14%), Hunan (14%).

Analysis found that real estate investment accounted for a lower proportion of solid investment areas, mainly in the north heavy industry, energy and industrial provinces, as well as some major cities in central and western provinces is relatively small. The reason, one is led to relatively high industrial investment denominator large, on the other hand is a real estate investment is not high lead molecule is not high.

Although in recent years many northern provinces such as Shandong, Tianjin, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi's rapid economic development, per capita GDP in Inner Mongolia, Guangdong and Fujian, and even beyond, but these provinces to heavy industry, large state-owned enterprises, mainly driven by investment, the first Three industry, light industry, private SMEs accounting for the low, the structure of GDP growth and increase the role of government revenue to great, but the people on employment and incomes have little effect, it is often said that "not only the long bones flesh. "

"What kind of economic structure determines what level of income, while income levels in turn determines the level and amount of real estate investment prices." Xiamen University of Economics and Associate Professor Ding hair that per capita income in many northern and western provinces do not, some north central city housing prices have been hovering in the low land are sold.

Dawei analysts said, a lot of heavy industry in northern province, which has a large amount of industrial investment in the past few years, and mainly due to the state-owned enterprises, while industrial investment will add a lot of building the real estate area. For example, many shed northeast of change projects, and not included in the real estate development and investment, but the construction companies to employees living in the house, and therefore counted in industrial investment.

"Extent of the northern provinces of housing market is relatively low, the proportion of non-commercialization of housing is very large." Dawei said that the North itself, economic underdevelopment, limited population inflows, coupled with the non-commercialization of housing and more, like Shenyang, Changchun and other northern capital city house prices is difficult to rise.

Yan Yuejin believes provinces such as Shandong, a higher proportion of the agricultural economy, and the resources behind and difficult agricultural economy into the real estate field. Similarly is, Henan, Jiangxi, Gansu and other provinces in central and western agriculture, lack of central city of Qinghai and other provinces pull, real estate investment accounted for relatively low.

Shanghai Guangdong can not explain the high proportion of high dependence

Real estate investment accounted for the proportion of solid investment, investment in real estate can explain dependence, but can rely on the regional economy shows the extent of the real estate investment? In professionals "First Financial Daily" interview appears, and the two can not be equated.

Reform and Development Research Institute Comprehensive Guangdong Province Peng Peng believes, like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other large eastern cities, has entered late, infrastructure and investment in the space industry have been relatively saturated industrialized, and therefore fixed assets investment is relatively not much; inland in many areas is still in the early and mid-industrialization, there are still a lot of infrastructure and investment, industrial significantly different stages of development.

So Many industry insiders believe that, in the measure of a place reliance on real estate investments, the need to introduce real estate investment share of GDP data taking.

If real estate investment share of GDP to row, with 36% of the proportion of Hainan ahead in all provinces. Except Hainan, southwest Guizhou, Yunnan, Chongqing, Fujian, Liaoning reliance on real estate in eastern relatively high, real estate development and investment GDP ratio exceeded 20%.

It is also because a higher degree of dependence on the property, some local rescue recently accelerated pace. For example, the recent introduction of Fujian "Min eight", related to real estate transactions, construction of all the links have done a comprehensive relaxation, at the provincial level or the first one.

In Hainan, after the July 18, the provincial capital Haikou issued a document to suspend the enforcement of commercial restriction policy, no longer require buyers to provide proof housing cycle of songs.

In contrast, despite higher investment in real estate in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong accounted for the proportion of solid cast, but they are nothing but a share of GDP is lower than the national average.

Dawei that Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong's industrial system is perfect, although the prices are more expensive, but these places reliance on real estate is not so strong, the foam is also relatively small; And like Hainan, Yunnan and other places, due to the industrial system is not improvement, economic dependence on real estate development is very high, a certain bubble.