A History of Real Estate in China and Why Prices Will Fall Straight Down

Some people say if home prices dare to fall, I will dare to buy. It wasn't uncommon to see these same people in the stock market at 5000. Later the stock market had these people, after the market fell from 5000 lots of people tried to grab a bargain. What was the result? 1,000,000 millionaires went in and only 10,000 came out. The BMW went in and out came a bicycle.

Any economic phenomena have similar properties, they follow the principle of scarcity. Because the Chinese property market design flaws, prices deviated from the economic laws, this deviation from economic laws can exist temporarily, but it can not exist forever. Accumulated to a certain extent certain quantitative qualitative change, which is why the property market in the absence of any policy intervention suddenly died down, which is why local governments straining out all the stops to rescue the market, the market is still subdued.

...That is, falling house prices, falling land prices, local governments have to sell, the developers had to build a house, of course, new home prices will certainly next step, therefore, the excess will be more surplus property, and later because the lower house prices, some speculators the hands of the house had become a hot potato. Because the land the local government almost no cost, so you can sell more low prices, low land prices, the price of housing developers to also get to the bottom. Until one day, the developers sell a house like those manufacturers sell electrical appliances, even though not much profit, but relatively fixed. Real estate real return to traditional industries.

Therefore, it can be expected after a storm, the high prices will soon be gone forever.

In China, to buy a house for many people, it is a just demand, whether the property market is up is down, someone regret not buy a house. China's housing prices is like a gamble, people could not guess, do not understand. Now take you a minute to understand China's 34-year history of high prices.

1987 sales area of ​​26.97 million square meters of commercial housing, it seems a lot of the aggregate, relative to the total number of large national, is too small, can only meet the needs of hundreds of thousands of living. Year national average price is how much? 408 yuan / square meter. It does not seem high, but compared to income at the time, nothing to sneeze at.

Until 1992, prices maintained at the unit price of a thousand dollars less, but the annual increase was considerable.

1998, in the new Chinese real estate short history was a watershed. Beidaihe meeting after two consecutive years of deliberation, the year on July 3, the State Council issued the "State Council on further deepening the urban housing system reform to speed up housing construction notice", the core content is from the second half of the year began to stop the housing distribution in kind, the implementation of the monetization ʱ?? Then starting in 1999, the central implement monetization of housing distribution system in the country.

That is, in 1998, prices leapt unit price of 2,000 yuan. Looking back now, after the real estate market, prices should rally ah. But not actually, from 1998 to 2000, house prices do not move or even fall slightly to maintain. There are a lot of people want to come will regret why not keep up the pace of policy in those years it? Of course, the prices should be marking time for three years and then hit the Southeast Asian financial crisis also has a relationship.

Looking back from today, house prices in 2001 to 2003, or to the foot of a lot of people the opportunity to rise slightly. But that is at the time, it appeared on the market price bubble voice, now that I think, a great point in 2000 and called the stock market bubble of the mean.

From the beginning of 2004, housing prices began as a runaway Mustang, then do not give hope to those who fell to chance. The national average price is priced way leapfrog 3000,4000,5000 yuan, 6000 yuan mark, until 2014 only a slight stop.
The article goes on to discuss how home prices have always been expensive in China, even back in 1980:
A popular article in 1980, "People's Daily" comments "an ordinary citizen must work, and cannot eat or drink, for 60 years in order to afford a house," Indeed, in 1979 ~ 1981, 60 cities nationwide implementation of full price of houses, but the result is far from ideal. At that time the average worker's monthly salary of about 60 yuan, pork about 1 yuan / kg, high housing prices can imagine.
After more than three decades of rising prices, has a peak finally arrived?

iFeng: 中国楼市存在缺陷 高房价即将一去不复返?

No comments:

Post a Comment