Liu Xiaobo: Policy Driven Bull Market In Housing Is Almost Over

iFeng: 大部分城市房价陷僵持状态 政策牛市或结束

The latest CREIS report showed prices still running up at a healthy clip, but the rises were in the surrounding regions of first-tier cities, places such as Langfang and Huizhou. With prices slowing in the first-tier, it's likely these cities will slow as well once they've played catch-up. Liu Xiabo (who didn't get the memo about being upbeat) says there's at most one to two quarters left of a policy driven bull market:

In this analysis, the problem becomes clear. This round of China's real estate bull market policy, the first stage is thriving in Shenzhen, the second stage is the overall rise in first-tier cities. Now in its third phase, the first-tier cities began to control, purchasing power is transferred to the surrounding cities, resulting in first-tier cities conurbation rose.

But worse problem: a sharp decline in first-tier cities turnover, new home prices began to rise does not move, second-hand housing start trimming. In this case, the satellite city of hot fleeting. By stronger independent factors some second-tier cities such as Nanjing, Xiamen, Wuhan, Hefei, Suzhou, and both local factors, but also on the rise for a while. But overall, there is no led the first-tier cities, the market has entered the second half.

My judgment is that after one or two quarters of the property market will become more cold, most urban housing prices will go into a stalemate, wait state. Unless the national first-tier cities relax again control the property market, otherwise the risk of this round of the bull market policy ends.

Why do you say that? In addition to its own property law, there is another factor, which is the central bank's monetary policy shift. Under the pressure of CPI rise, the central bank has begun to control liquidity. Xi total just chaired a Politburo meeting also referred to "pay attention to price changes."

But in the long run, the central city is still worth investing in high-quality residential and long-term holding. Just the short term, the real estate after one or two quarters, there may be cooling trend. In this regard, we have a clear understanding.